Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 2, 2022 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Wars typically get a lot of coverage and much of it is criticism. Interestingly enough, even Ukrainians attacked by a huge heavily militarised aggressor are getting *lots* of it. Let me give some considerations on criticism - mostly to Ukrainians but to also to whoever. A short🧵
They gonna tell you that critics are not always the enemies. But the dark truth is that a good number of critics are. Human interactions necessarily include a political dimension. Neurotypical people do not just honestly tell what's on their mind. Instead they play a social game
What game are they playing? It depends. Some "critics" are haters who wish you death. There's an asymmetry between hatred vs sympathy. A fan is not *that* much of a fan, he has other interests, his life doesn't revolve around you. But the life of a hater absolutely fucking does
There's another category which might not wish you destruction. But if you make it, they'll be very very upset. This group may include some of those you consider to be friends. Your failure will cheer them up and vice versa. Finally, there are people influenced by first two groups
What unites them is that neither of these groups has you best interest in mind. However, they pursue different goals. Most typical games they are playing are:

1. Active subversion
2. Reputation destruction
Active subversion. They unconsciously (or consciously) try to figure out what course of actions would be worst for you. Then they socially pressure you to choose it. They'll criticise you for good moves and praise for bad ones. They guide you to your demise by booing and cheering
Reputation destroyers don't aim to guide you anywhere. They criticise whatever you do, both good and bad moves. If you are inactive they'll criticise your inaction, if you are active - action. They might not even think what would be worse for you, they just attack your reputation
So the test on active subverter vs reputation destroyer would be. Imagine you did so obviously disastrous, so clearly ruinous that he most probably understands you made a bad move? An active subverter will congratulate you on that. A reputation destroyer still gonna criticise
If you made a good move, you can't really tell a difference. For example when Ukraine declared mobilisation, both active subverters and reputation destroyers were booing. However, subverters did it cuz they thought it's a good move, while reputation destroyers didn't think at all
But if Ukraine didn't do that, then we would see the difference. Active subverters would be praising Ukraine for this ethical, reasonable approach. Meanwhile reputation destroyers would be criticising their cowardice and lack of will to exist (which proves they are a fake nation)
It's all about priorities. Since active subverters aim to guide you to your demise, they're trying to use both "carrot" and "stick" approaches. They fear that if they criticise you for a disastrous move, then you might reconsider and change your course of actions. Unacceptable
Reputation destroyers don't guide you anywhere. Thus they use only a "stick" all the time. That makes them very easy to recognise: they're non stop producers of negative affirmations. Which are also performative in a sense they're aimed both to your self-image and public image
Much of criticism is purely malevolent. And many critics don't really hide it. They don't even pretend to act in your best interest. If they criticise you, that's just a white noise. Ignore. But if they praise you (however they frame it), that's a reason to be concerned. End of🧵

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More from @kamilkazani

Sep 17
Wagner march was incredible, unprecedented to the extent most foreigners simply do not understand. Like, yes, Russia had its military coups in the 18th c. But those were the palace coups, all done by the Guards. Purely praetorian business with zero participation of the army.
Yes, there was a Kornilov affair in 1917, but that happened after the coup in capital. In March they overthrew the Tsar, then there was infighting in the capital, including a Bolshevik revolt in July, and only in September part of the army marches to St Petersburg.

Half a year after the coup. Not the same thing
I think the last time anything like that happened was in 1698, when the Musketeers marched on Moscow from the Western border. And then, next time, only in 2023.

(Army leaves the border/battlefield and marches on the capital without a previous praetorian coup in the capital)
Read 17 tweets
Sep 14
As a person from a post-Soviet country, I could not but find the institutions of People’s Republic of China oddly familiar. For every major institution of the Communist Russia, I could find a direct equivalent in Communist China.

With one major exception:

China had no KGB
For a post-Soviet person, that was a shocking realisation. For us, a gigantic, centralised, all-permeating and all powerful state security system appears to be almost a natural phenomenon. The earth. The sky. Force of gravity. KGB

All basic properties of reality we live in Image
It was hard to come up with any explanation for why the PRC that evolved in a close cooperation with the USSR, that used to be its client state, that emulated its major institutions, failed to copy this seemingly prerequisite (?) institution of state power

Unexplainable Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 30
Soviet Union was making a lot of weaponry.

No, it was making A LOT of it.

Soviet output of armaments was absolutely gargantuan, massive, unbeatable. “Extraordinary by any standard” , it was impossible for any other country to compete with. Image
From 1975 to 1988, the Soviets produced four times as many ICBMs and SLBMs, twice as many nuclear submarines, five times as many bombers, six times as many SAMs, three times as many tanks and six times as many artillery pieces as the United States.

Impossible to compete with. Image
Which raises a question:

How could the USSR produce so much?

It is not only that the USSR invested every dime into the military production. It is also that the Soviet industry was designed for the very large volumes of output, and worked the best under these very large volumesImage
Read 5 tweets
Aug 24
We are releasing our investigation on Roscosmos, covering a nearly exhaustive sample of Russian ICBM producing plants. We have investigated both primary ICBM/SLBM producers in Russia, a major producer of launchers, manufacturers of parts and components.

Image
We have five OSINT materials, one per each plant. To access our materials, you can either:

a) Click on a respective plant in the diagram
b) Choose it from the list below it

Follow the link: rhodus.com/roscosmos
Image
Each material includes an eclectic collection of sources, ranging from the TV propaganda to public tenders, and from the HR listings to academic dissertations. Combined altogether, they provide a holistic picture of Russian ICBM production base that no single type of source can. Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 8
Two observations. In the recent years,

1. Silicon Valley has been turning red
2. MAGA discourse has been increasingly dominated by a few tech moguls

Now the thing with moguls is they are extreme outliers, who do not understand they are outliers.
Overall, you can expect tech moguls to have much, much higher level of reasoning abilities compared to the political/administrative class. But this comes at a cost. Their capacities for understanding the Other (masses count as the “Other”) are much poorer.
E.g. Putin is much, much less of an outlier in terms of intelligence compared to Thiel. He is much more average. At the same time, I am positively convinced that Putin understands the masses and works with masses much better.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 3
One problem with that is that too much of the supply chain for drone production is located in China. The thing with drones is that they grew out of toys industry. Cheap plastic & electronic crap that all of a sudden got military significance

America forgot how to produce cheap
Image
That is also the major problem I have with "China supports Russia" argument. China could wreck Ukraine easily, simply obstructing & delaying the drone/drone components shipments. That would be an instant military collapse for Ukraine.
Both Russian and Ukrainian drone industries are totally dependent upon the continuous shipments from China. To a very significant degree, their "production" is assembly from the Chinese components which are non alternative and cannot be substituted with anything else (as cheap).
Read 4 tweets

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