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Michael Tracey Profile picture
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Mar 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Escalation Alert: Is NATO Fighting in Ukraine Right Now? mtracey.substack.com/p/escalation-a…
Bottom line: The Ukraine military says "combat tasks" are being launched from Polish bases, using "fighter jets" pledged by the EU. Neither the EU nor Poland would give me a clear explanation of what's happening. This ambiguity should trouble anyone who prefers to avoid WWIII
The unclear and contradictory statements from these officials about what would be a massive escalation -- air attacks on Russian forces launched from a NATO country -- should at the very least be a major red flag
I don't give unthinking credence to any of these entities. But if what the Ukraine military has claimed is happening is not in fact happening, the relevant players (Poland and EU) could simply deny it in unambiguous language. They haven't
A note of non-optimism from a Substack subscriber
This is highly possible -- but if it's just the Ukraine government making stuff up, Poland and EU should be able to issue clear denials, instead of carefully worded statements that don't actually deny what the Ukraine govt. has claimed

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More from @mtracey

Michael Tracey Profile picture
Mar 1
There's a disturbing lack of clarity about what this EU supply of "fighter jets" precisely entails. Ukraine fighter pilots will now "base on" Polish airports, meaning "combat tasks" will be launched from a NATO member state? Hello, anyone see the glaring escalatory danger here?
I have asked the Polish Defense Ministry for comment. I also received a cryptic statement from an EU spokesperson today. Will publish tomorrow: mtracey.substack.com
Also, the Prime Minister of Bulgaria denied claims that it was giving fighter jets to Ukraine. So something is off about these statements from Ukraine military sources, not surprisingly novinite.com/articles/21400…
Read 4 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Feb 28
Why Wouldn’t the US Negotiate With Putin?
mtracey.substack.com/p/why-wouldnt-…
The real question: why did the US so obstinately refuse to even entertain giving Putin a "concession" on something they simultaneously insist would never have happened anyway? They said they knew an invasion was coming, but didn't do the one thing in their power to avert it? Image
The ideological narrative spawned in the US since 2016, which painted Putin as the puppet-master of a global right-wing extremism and subversion movement, poisoned the well for any offering of concessions that could be seen as "appeasing" him: especially for a Dem Administration Image
Read 6 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Feb 26
The blame for this nightmare is 100% bipartisan. Trump started sending weapons, abrogated major treaties, and relations with Russia cratered. All while Dems/media obsessed with a deranged “collusion” conspiracy, poisoning the well for any real diplomacy. Which Biden refused to do
You have to be dangerously simple-minded to not understand what the US proudly declared: that it turned Ukraine into a client state, subsidized its military, and was the only relevant diplomatic player in this entire situation. Acknowledging reality doesn't "excuse Putin," idiots
If you don't think the recent radicalization of the US foreign policy establishment against Russia had any affect on how the US carried out its self-proclaimed central role in this situation, I don't know what to tell you
Read 4 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Feb 25
US hegemony is rapidly weakening but US officials are politically and/or ideologically constrained from acknowledging this, so they still constantly use maximalist rhetoric about the efficacy of US power. When the rhetoric inevitably does not match the action, chaos ensues
How many times have US politicians (both parties) declared their unflinching resolve to defend Ukraine? Well, all they've done is turn Ukraine into a battleground for US proxy warfare with Russia, while Ukraine itself gets destroyed
The more US hegemony recedes, the more incoherent the maximalist rhetoric becomes -- and the more chaos this incongruity is likely to produce. Acknowledging hegemonic decline will be considered a non-starter for US politicians until further notice, so expect the chaos to escalate
Read 5 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Feb 25
US-trained soldiers in a US-funded military are currently waging large-scale hot war with US-made missiles, sniper rifles, and grenade launchers against the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Another flawlessly executed A+ intervention by the US
Clearly, flooding this US client state with weaponry and bringing it into "partnership" with the Pentagon successfully achieved the stated policy objective of "deterrence." Anyone who'd dare suggest that the objective seems more akin to "deliberate antagonism" must be nuts!
Even on its own terms, interventionist US policy toward Ukraine -- of course supported on a sacrosanct Bipartisan Basis -- has been an abject failure. Which is shocking, because who could've ever thought that an interventionist US policy would result in abject failure
Read 4 tweets
Michael Tracey Profile picture
Feb 25
What I Got Wrong About the Invasion of Ukraine mtracey.substack.com/p/what-i-got-w…
Doing a Callin at 8pm EST with @I_Katchanovski on the Ukraine situation, feel free to come tell me how even *more* wrong I was callin.com/link/hKcLGYFdpw
Thanks to everybody who tuned in, especially caller Matthew who said his initial plan was to “vilify” me, but ended up (tepidly) praising me 😂 callin.com/link/pEkpyGozGN
Read 4 tweets

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