Thread by @CaitlinDoornbos

Senior defense official: "The bottom line up front, if you will, is that there hasn't really been a lot of significant change on the ground since yesterday. In terms of committed combat power inside Ukraine.
Yesterday I said it was around 80% Today we're estimating about 82%."

"We continue to see Ukrainians resist Russian advances on the [Kyiv.] We would assess that there essentially has been no appreciable movement closer to the city," as the defense official said yesterday.

Official explains what's meant by "appreciable movement":

"I say [no] appreciable movement because we don't have perfect visibility on every unit, every tank, every truck, but basically they are they remain stalled."

Background: stripes.com/theaters/europ…

"In Kyiv, we've observed certainly, as you have all observed, an increase in missiles and artillery targeting the city and this increasingly aggressiveness in terms of the iron that they're that they're lobbing into the city certainly aligns with open-source reporting."

The Russian Ministry of Defense yesterday warned it would start to strike Ukraine's capital. The defense official today confirms that's started:
"[Russia] decided to become much more aggressive with its targeting in in Kyiv to include infrastructure right there inside the city."

"In the south, we have continued to see Russian forces make making [an] advance. They have been achieving more progress down there. It's measured."

"[Russia has] not moved on Mariupol but the only difference between today and yesterday in what we have seen are some preliminary indications that the Russian forces are going to now try to come down towards Mariupol from the Donetsk area."
Background: stripes.com/theaters/europ…

"That, combined w/their advance up the coast of the Sea of Azov, would lead one to assume that their approach on Mariupol will be from multiple directions w/ what could likely be an attempt to encircle the city. That's just a preliminary move we're seeing today."

"In the maritime environment, nothing to update you on today. No movements, no indications of an amphibious assaults coming or happening. No moves on Odessa that we can [see] either from the ground or from the sea."

Official: "Ukrainian air & missile defense capabilities remain intact & viable. But then again, so do the Russians. As of this morning [there's been] 450 missile launches by the Russians ... short-range, medium-range, surface-to-air missiles, cruise missiles. It's the full menu."

"In the information [space], Russia's Ministry of Defense warned it would conduct strikes in Kyiv on targets responsible for what they call 'information attacks against Russia.' You guys have seen for yourself the power they've had in the media outlets that they're going after."

On cyber attacks: "We've observed continued degradation of Ukraine's internet, though we still believe as we did yesterday that communication and media access is generally -- not uniformly -- but generally available."

The defense official said the U.S. "cannot confirm the use of cluster munitions" in Ukraine though the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. said Russia has deployed cluster munition systems to the country.

Defense official says the airspace above Ukraine remains contested.
"I do not have any information about the shooting down of a Russian plane or planes near Kharkiv."

"And we still assess that they're experiencing logistical and sustainment issues much in as what we saw yesterday, both in terms of fuel and food. We don't believe that that has been alleviated by the Russians."
Background: stripes.com/theaters/europ…

"We obviously have indications that [Russia is] certainly aware that they have these problems [with food and fuel] and they're trying to over overcome them. But our assessment is today that they continue to be to be bedeviled by these logistical and sustainment issues."

On a 40-mile long Russian convoy stalled in Ukraine: "It is a long convoy so I can't be perfectly predictive on every mile of that whether they're moving or not, but they are not moving at any rate that would lead one to believe that they've solved their problems."

On Ukraine national security advisor's talk of a reported Russian plan to assassinate Ukrainian President Zelenskyy:
"We've seen reports ... but we cannot independently verify the assassination plot or how that information was shared with Ukrainians."

"[Russia] continues to want to move on population centers. You know, we talked about these 3 axes of movement are all aggregated towards major population centers [such as] Mariupol, a major population center that we know they want, and so that seems to be their goal."

On airspace: "It's still very contested and it's a very dynamic airspace. It's a very large airspace. And the degree to which one side or the other has a dominance literally changes throughout the course of the day geographically."

On Russian nuclear posture: "We're watching it every day after Mr. Putin made his announcement, but we've seen nothing that would give us less comfort in our own strategic deterrence posture."

On whether Putin is 'isolated' in war decisionmaking: "Historically, he has he has been a very active leader at the top of the military chain of command and very engaged .. I mean, this is a man who historically has had a very hands-on approach."

"I can't answer the question specifically about the degree to which he's involved & at what level. [Putin is] clearly involved because he commands his military, but how much over the last 7 days whether he's been involved at a tactical level? I just don't know."

"I've seen reports about him being increasingly isolated and we as a Department of Defense are not making an assessment about [Putin's] degree of personal isolation or not. We're simply taking a look at what's going on on the ground."

Re: the mix of conscripts vs. volunteers:
"This is a military largely made up of conscripts; that's just the way the national defense is staffed in Russia. So it's not at all surprising to us that that you're seeing a lot of conscripts – draftees – in this flow of forces."

"[Russia] has the vast majority of the combat power that he set out to use already inside Ukraine, so they're there now. But again, I can't say how many of the leading elements were ill-trained conscripts [or draftees] versus more experienced soldiers."

"When I say [Putin's] got 82% in there, [that doesn't mean] we think he's dwindling his options – it's quite the contrary. He's continuing to add to his options. [Just because] he's got that much already in Ukraine, [he isn't lacking] combat capabilities he has available to him."

However, Russia doesn't "appear to be integrating combined arms capabilities to the degree that you would think they would do for an operation of this size and scale and complexity," per the official.

On Russia capabilities available: "We've been talking for weeks about the combined arms capabilities -- armor, artillery, infantry, special operations, combat aviation, logistics sustainment. He assembled all that stuff."

Still "no indications or evidence that [Belarusian troops] are moving or positioning [to invade Ukraine. [They are] certainly not in the fight now," the official said. However, Russian troops have used the Belarusian border to invade Ukraine.

We don't have perfect visibility into [Russia's] targeting process. We see civilian targets are being struck. And in the case of media, there's no doubt about the deliberateness of that. They basically said they were going to do it & they did it & those are civilian targets."

"Most of the strikes have been missile and air strikes but as they get closer to targets, they have been using artillery. There's obviously a range dependency there. But we are in no position to dispute the reports coming out of the Ukrainians about shelling, meaning artillery."

"Our anticipation would be that you'll see [Russian] use of artillery increase as they get closer to these population centers as they tried to surround them all."

That "would be classic siege behavior. If you're trying to encircle a population center and subdue it, force it to surrender. Your artillery becomes a very powerful weapon in that regard. So we would expect to see artillery strikes increasingly closer to population centers."

On whether Russia is purposefully hitting civilian targets: "It's not always clear when a civilian target gets hit, whether it was the intended target or not, and whether or not they were trying to hit something close by missed it. But clearly, they are hitting civilian targets."

On the stalled convoy: "It's an attempt by the Russians to add to their striking power & provide some relief to the sustainment issues they've had. But there's lots of reasons why they're not making the progress that they wanted to make." Background: stripes.com/theaters/europ…

The convoy appears to be part of the advance on Kyiv:
"We assess it is slowed because of resistance from the Ukrainians, which has been effective and quite creative,
and it has been because of their own logistical and sustainment problems." Background: stripes.com/theaters/europ…

"We've seen not a lot of great [Russian] air-to-ground integration of efforts," the official said. For example, the U.S. has not seen good Russian "integration of air and missile defense suppression and support from the air [for] ground forces in advance of their movement."

Official cannot say how many have died in this weeklong war: "I'm simply not even going to provide a magnitude because the estimates are all over the map. Some are are very low, and some are pretty high. And I just don't think it'd be useful for me to even quantify it that way."