Ranking from low to high in terms of reward/risk rate:
7. web3 social/community: still way too early.
6. DeFi: continues to be range bound.
5. NFT: many me-too projects, investment research cost high, illiquid, in a bigger bubble than other sectors
4. Gaming/p2e: similar to deFi, space so competitive that most values accrue to underling L1/L2.
3. Storage: depends on if project has potential beyond AWS S3 replacement. If no, not interesting. If yes, it's similar to L1/L2
2. Bridge/cross-chain swap: growing fast, moat is stronger than deFi but potential network effect is smaller than L1/L2.
1. Alt L1/L2: the highest reward/risk rate in crypto. Why? Less volatile than niche sectors, but higher potential return than BTC or ETH. Good liquidity & volume, so easy to trade w/ smaller spread. Best network effect potential if successful, so upside is big.
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There’s one macro variable that single-handedly accounts for over 50% of crypto price swings.
What it means for the value of your token bag 👇
The variable I’m referring to is the US DOLLAR.
I fitted BTC price & crypto mkt cap against a laundry basket of macro factors. The value of USD (proxied by DXY index) has most significant correlation w/ crypto.
54% of y-o-y BTC price change can be explained by DXY alone.
DXY up—> crypto down. Vice versa.
Onset of last crypto winter in 2018 coincided w/ major $ trend reversal, while as $ began dropping in early 2019, BTC rose from dead. Makes you wonder is crypto driven by BTC halving like they make you believe, or by dollar valuation cycle?
a) stable exchange rate,
b) free capital flow &
c) independent monetary policy, at same time.
Most fiats choose c, prefer a & sometimes sacrifice b.
Most cryptos choose c, prefer b & completely ignore a.
A token that pays attention to a would have an attractive value prop given extreme volatility of every other token.
It'd help attract long-term investors rather than speculators that count on exchange rate appreciation forever.
It's surprising that no L1 or L2 token pay any mind to stable exchange rate in tokeneconomics.
It's def not for lack of tools. They have mint/burn policy. Also capital control, i.e. sacrifice b), is not taboo (e.g. staking unlocking period is a form of capital control.)
Last week I spent $1000 & 15 hours trying to make a NFT as my metaverse ID card.
Here’s how it went & why blockchain as a digital identity solution has a long way to go 🎬
Why do I need a metaverse ID? Cuz I’m desperate.
My Twitter account has a rampant impersonation problem. I get messages from followers abt new ones every week just as I block/report old ones.
Imposters sell fake investment courses or paid memberships pretending it’s me. Wish I could tell you nobody fell for them. But people do. Confused & angry peeps end up coming to me for answers (I know). It’s become a reputation risk.
Since I stared sharing my writing regularly on this bird app last yr my twitter account grew from nothing to over 100k in 6 mos.
So many people told me my articles changed how they look at the world forever & I get asked a lot how I came up w/ the sh*t I write abt.
Here's how.
Hint: Having visionary insights is not abt intelligence or experience. It’s a lifestyle that you can learn 👇
I’d be lying if I said making innovative ideas is easy. Obv brain work is involved & an active brain needs more calories & nutrients than even hard physical labor. I wrote abt how I keep my brain healthy a while ago.
Short-term mkt volatility obscures long term view.
In uncertain times, good to remind oneself of latter & ask “Do I still believe this is where the world is going?" If so, stay the course.
10 predictions for the web3 age that I expect to manifest regardless of mkt cycles 👇
Note: Making prophecy is tricky biz. Many of these won’t play out exactly as I describe. But being directionally right is better than being precisely wrong. I expect the predictions below to fall in former camp.
1. Hyper tokenization of everything
All assets— stocks, bonds, real estate…— will be tokenized. Anything w/ a cashflow will be tokenized. Companies, governments, nonprofits will all have tokens as a tool for attracting supports & distributing values.