SITREP - Day 8: Most analysts think the odds of a ceasefire are increasing in Ukraine.
They have it exactly backwards.
We've actually moved closer to the nightmare scenario where Kiev is simply leveled. 🧵
They have it exactly backwards.
We've actually moved closer to the nightmare scenario where Kiev is simply leveled. 🧵
The Russian military is still in a strategic position to win the war.
They've already surrounded Azov Battalion at Mariupol, and they're on their way to encircling Ukraine's forces in the Donbas.
If this were a strategy game, you'd *really* want to play as Russia.
They've already surrounded Azov Battalion at Mariupol, and they're on their way to encircling Ukraine's forces in the Donbas.
If this were a strategy game, you'd *really* want to play as Russia.
The fall of Kherson today, a city of 300k people, will mark a turning point in the war.
The Ukrainian forces barely put up any resistance, and the city was spared.
The message to other cities is clear: Fight and be leveled or surrender and be treated kindly.
The Ukrainian forces barely put up any resistance, and the city was spared.
The message to other cities is clear: Fight and be leveled or surrender and be treated kindly.
It's not just the psychological impact of Kherson's fall that's important though – it's also the geography.
Ukraine is now almost entirely cut off from the Black Sea.
The Russians only have to take Odessa in order to transform Ukraine into a landlocked country.
Ukraine is now almost entirely cut off from the Black Sea.
The Russians only have to take Odessa in order to transform Ukraine into a landlocked country.
The goal of the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas will now be to "punch out of" the attempted RU encirclement.
But even if they can split the blades of the near pincer, the Russians can spring a *second* and *third* pincer on them.
They have multiple paths to bisect the country.
But even if they can split the blades of the near pincer, the Russians can spring a *second* and *third* pincer on them.
They have multiple paths to bisect the country.
If the Russians had accomplished all of this quickly and with low casualties, maybe they would be in a mood to negotiate.
But the humiliating struggles they've experienced, which have been broadcast around the world, change the political calculus.
But the humiliating struggles they've experienced, which have been broadcast around the world, change the political calculus.
Russia no longer has the option of looking like a magnanimous victor by accepting a negotiated ceasefire.
If President Putin accepts something like a conditional surrender that preserves the integrity of the Ukrainian government, that will be spun as a defeat for Russia.
If President Putin accepts something like a conditional surrender that preserves the integrity of the Ukrainian government, that will be spun as a defeat for Russia.
It may sound paradoxical from the outside, but Russia's *tactical defeats* now make *strategic victory* imperative.
To preserve Russia's aspiration to be a superpower, there must be no doubt at the end of the war who the victor was.
It must be Russia. By a crushing margin.
To preserve Russia's aspiration to be a superpower, there must be no doubt at the end of the war who the victor was.
It must be Russia. By a crushing margin.
It's critical to remember the domestic messaging that was used to introduce this conflict to the Russian people.
President Putin framed it as the sequel to the Second World War – a new struggle against Fascism on Russia's border, which threatened the country's very existence.
President Putin framed it as the sequel to the Second World War – a new struggle against Fascism on Russia's border, which threatened the country's very existence.
We should expect the Russian state to use a quantity of force proportionate to the claimed threat from Ukraine.
Many analysts are missing this. They are the same people who missed that Russia would invade, because they ignored President Putin's words then too.
Many analysts are missing this. They are the same people who missed that Russia would invade, because they ignored President Putin's words then too.
It is irrelevant that, to outside observers, Ukraine is not a neo-Nazi state.
That is the *thesis of the conflict* from President Putin's perspective.
To understand what Putin will do, you have to look at the war through through his eyes – even if his vision is distorted.
That is the *thesis of the conflict* from President Putin's perspective.
To understand what Putin will do, you have to look at the war through through his eyes – even if his vision is distorted.
How would you bring a neo-Nazi state to heel if your initial attempts at an invasion backed by precision strikes stalled?
You would escalate the use of force. Instead of surgical attacks, you would turn to borderline strategic weapons.
That is what Russia is doing.
You would escalate the use of force. Instead of surgical attacks, you would turn to borderline strategic weapons.
That is what Russia is doing.
We've seen the use of MLRS rocket artillery, a horrifying platform that kills indiscriminately within a large target area.
Ukrainian forces survived so long in the early days of the war because Russia was reluctant to use heavy artillery. No longer.
Ukrainian forces survived so long in the early days of the war because Russia was reluctant to use heavy artillery. No longer.
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1499228042928918532?s=20&t=JpFXsEVyvd9ibLk34Ghovw
Similarly, we've seen Russian forces using a combination of artillery and heavy airstrikes in Kharkov.
Large sections of the city appear to have been leveled.
We have to pray that civilians were already evacuated – or the casualties will be immense.
Large sections of the city appear to have been leveled.
We have to pray that civilians were already evacuated – or the casualties will be immense.
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1499259597281894400?s=20&t=JpFXsEVyvd9ibLk34Ghovw
The million dollar question is whether the Russians will use the same heavy-handed tactics in Kiev.
There's actually a simple answer: They don't want to, but they will if they have to.
Laying siege to a city of 3 million could be the ugliest part of the war.
There's actually a simple answer: They don't want to, but they will if they have to.
Laying siege to a city of 3 million could be the ugliest part of the war.
This raises a troubling moral quandary: Are we really helping the Ukrainians by encouraging them to fight?
I am awed by their bravery. It's fun to cheer on an underdog.
But if the end result is watching it get viciously torn to pieces, was it really worth it?
I am awed by their bravery. It's fun to cheer on an underdog.
But if the end result is watching it get viciously torn to pieces, was it really worth it?
There's a real risk that we're selling the Ukrainians a false bill of goods– just like we did when we promised them NATO membership.
They keep asking for a NATO no-fly zone because they know they can't win without it.
We aren't going to give it to them. Where's that leave us?
They keep asking for a NATO no-fly zone because they know they can't win without it.
We aren't going to give it to them. Where's that leave us?
The end result of all of our cheering and all of our weapons deliveries could be a repeat of the Second Chechen War.
The Chechens fought even harder than the Ukrainians.
They inflicted horrifying losses on the Russian army, against all odds.
The Chechens fought even harder than the Ukrainians.
They inflicted horrifying losses on the Russian army, against all odds.
What did it get them? A Russian siege of their capital that laid it to waste.
This was Grozny after the war. This is what so much Chechen bravery achieved.
If the Ukrainians keep fighting hard, it's what will happen to Kiev. All while we cheer them on from the sidelines.
This was Grozny after the war. This is what so much Chechen bravery achieved.
If the Ukrainians keep fighting hard, it's what will happen to Kiev. All while we cheer them on from the sidelines.
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