1/ True, professional managers w. have serious problems explaining to their investors why they are/were invested in Russia (now).
Anyway, truth is important!
I started the year with a 9% Russia allocation and want to do a review and hopefully learn sth.
Anyway, truth is important!
I started the year with a 9% Russia allocation and want to do a review and hopefully learn sth.
https://twitter.com/resourcebull/status/1498815665729376258
2/ Truth can hurt our wellbeing. It would be easier to forget about our (read mine) failures or bad outcomes (there is a difference). But to improve/learn we must look at them.
Some self therapy might also be involved here for focusing on new investment ideas.
Some self therapy might also be involved here for focusing on new investment ideas.
3/ It should not be necessary to state but it seems it is:
The Urkaine/Russia war is an absolute tragedy! As every war is!
The Urkaine/Russia war is an absolute tragedy! As every war is!
4/ There's a wide range of opinions on what is (morally) still allowed under these very sad cicumstances, while publicly accepted opinions can be in a much narrower range, which, I guess, is a typical development during any war.
(I hope this not to become a political debate ...)
(I hope this not to become a political debate ...)
4.1/ I joined twtitter originally at a German train station to find a valve for my frustration about DB (small problems in perspective).
I might have used it <10 times. Did not like twtr.
This account (s4v) is focusing on fintwit/investing stuff, so ...
I might have used it <10 times. Did not like twtr.
This account (s4v) is focusing on fintwit/investing stuff, so ...
5/ As of March 2, 2022, my PF shows a ytd performance of c. -5.3%*, largely due to two developments.
i) I ended 2021 with a 9% allocation to Russia (6/f)
ii) some v positive contributions.
(* assuming both at €.01 price. makes for a great painful reminder)
i) I ended 2021 with a 9% allocation to Russia (6/f)
ii) some v positive contributions.
(* assuming both at €.01 price. makes for a great painful reminder)
6/ I. I ended 2021 with a 9% allocation to Russia (6.2% Gazprom ADR, 2.9% Sberbank ADR)
searching4value.wordpress.com/2022/01/01/my-…
searching4value.wordpress.com/2022/01/01/my-…
7/ One way to see it, was I played 'Russian roulette' and I lost!
According to my posts I was very aware of the various risks related to emerging markets with weaker institutions etc...
And yet, I thought it would make for a good investment/bet
(searching4value.wordpress.com/2021/10/08/tho…)
According to my posts I was very aware of the various risks related to emerging markets with weaker institutions etc...
And yet, I thought it would make for a good investment/bet
(searching4value.wordpress.com/2021/10/08/tho…)
8/ Re-reading my piece hurts. I updated it as recently as Jan'22 (Kazakhstan protests at the bottom), yet I did hold on to GAZ & SBER.
I even wrote, that contribution remains limited, likely due to never exp. a 100% loss of RU exposure, but more like a heavy loss (ie -30/50%)
I even wrote, that contribution remains limited, likely due to never exp. a 100% loss of RU exposure, but more like a heavy loss (ie -30/50%)
9/ Truth be told, I did never believed that a Rus/Ukr war would happen!
Probably that was much more difficult to believe as a European.
When adding to Sber at 13Jan'22 I wrote 'US/Russia conflict'
I liked the great combo of high ROEs and low P/B
Probably that was much more difficult to believe as a European.
When adding to Sber at 13Jan'22 I wrote 'US/Russia conflict'
I liked the great combo of high ROEs and low P/B
9.1/ Others got it wrong.
So did Vitaliy (whom I admire and love to read, so should you), who comes with 'Russian+' experiences...
BUT! he had no Russain stocks anyway, i guess.
Btw, a big difference not to bet on your (questionable) beliefs
contrarianedge.com/war-in-ukraine…
So did Vitaliy (whom I admire and love to read, so should you), who comes with 'Russian+' experiences...
BUT! he had no Russain stocks anyway, i guess.
Btw, a big difference not to bet on your (questionable) beliefs
contrarianedge.com/war-in-ukraine…
10/ Several biases were probably involved here.
I likely catched contrarian disease. For a long time I believe there is a whole lot going wrong in German/western politics; incl. energy, US LNG!
Also see my 2021 review (link in 6/)
roiss.substack.com/p/dont-catch-c…
I likely catched contrarian disease. For a long time I believe there is a whole lot going wrong in German/western politics; incl. energy, US LNG!
Also see my 2021 review (link in 6/)
roiss.substack.com/p/dont-catch-c…
11/ I missed multi-variate thinking. My Rus stocks (ADRs!) had exposure to higher energy/commodity prices, a marco topic I think was a rather good bet to take.
Inpex and Africa Oil are in the same bucket.
Selling some Gaz for BTU or PBR would show good results today (smart?)
Inpex and Africa Oil are in the same bucket.
Selling some Gaz for BTU or PBR would show good results today (smart?)
11.1/ One possible reason for Russian stocks having been too cheap was that many foreign inverstors were not investing there for various reasons.
Maybe that was a too simple explanation or I should have thought more abt it.
Nothing in investing is too easy!
Maybe that was a too simple explanation or I should have thought more abt it.
Nothing in investing is too easy!
12/ Tax considerations might have stopped me to sell early.
The 9% allocation came from about 50% appreciation.
Does that make it any better? No really!
(do not get me wrong: PBR US is not the highest quality company either, but offered less Rus exposure)
The 9% allocation came from about 50% appreciation.
Does that make it any better? No really!
(do not get me wrong: PBR US is not the highest quality company either, but offered less Rus exposure)
13/ Some positive performance contributors only sligtly limit the pain and feeling-stupid mood:
- Check Point
- Inpex
- Progressive
- Africa Oil
- Check Point
- Inpex
- Progressive
- Africa Oil
14/ CHKP was my biggest pos w 16.3%, has a strong run due to higher/accelerating growth in Q4 and higher ambitions for growth.
Since Russia is a huge cyber threat for the West, there will likely be more demand.
Cap is higher now, but so is the prob. for the high growth scenario
Since Russia is a huge cyber threat for the West, there will likely be more demand.
Cap is higher now, but so is the prob. for the high growth scenario
14.1/ The sector seems to get ETF inflows with more ppl/investors being intrested in the industry / wanting exposure.
So, i guess the recent strong performance might revert quickly...
So, i guess the recent strong performance might revert quickly...
15/ Inpex profits from higher energy prices, highlighting once again the importance for multi-variate analysis.
(another great EU example is EDF: should profit tremendously from higher electricity prices but: reactor issues & politics)
(another great EU example is EDF: should profit tremendously from higher electricity prices but: reactor issues & politics)
16/ PGR is currently 'hurt' by high inflation (severity) with multi-decade record price developments for used cars prices (ie Manheim index) and ACV. But, they are duing hte right steps, IMO.
I reduced on Dec 7 from 12.7>10.8% due to higher CRs.
But i did not! reduce Gaz/Sber 🙈
I reduced on Dec 7 from 12.7>10.8% due to higher CRs.
But i did not! reduce Gaz/Sber 🙈
17/ AOI is in the energy bucket as well, though a smaller (more 'risky') company in emerging market land Africa with E&P exposure!
Might benefit in buyers market
Q is when to sell comps with low quality ?
After a re-rating?
When they are not a perceived! 'bargain' anymore?
Might benefit in buyers market
Q is when to sell comps with low quality ?
After a re-rating?
When they are not a perceived! 'bargain' anymore?
18/ Others:
Krka also affected. Russia is their larget country by revenue (21.3% FY'21) and much PPE in Rus due to local requirements.
MBR was affected, possible b/c regional location/closeness and/or will they do less (Russian?) business ?
FLOW (and vix) is surprisingly low
Krka also affected. Russia is their larget country by revenue (21.3% FY'21) and much PPE in Rus due to local requirements.
MBR was affected, possible b/c regional location/closeness and/or will they do less (Russian?) business ?
FLOW (and vix) is surprisingly low
19/ I hope you enjoyed.
Let's all prey for timely improvements in Ukraine and the war to stop!
Let's all prey for timely improvements in Ukraine and the war to stop!
@threadreaderapp unroll
Add to 9/:
I did not think war would happen, but at least I thought about it, acc. to my notes.
I did not think war would happen, but at least I thought about it, acc. to my notes.
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