Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
@bazaarofwar
Mar 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Updated side-by-side scaled comparison of the 9th day of Iraq & Ukraine (R map by @TheStudyofWar).

By this point, the Army's V Corps had made it ~600 km along the Euphrates and were attacking Karbala; 1st Marine Division had crossed the river at Nasiriyah and progressed >200 km.
@TheStudyofWar The closest comparison to the Marines' progress is the fighting at Kherson—like Nasiriyah, it guarded the crossing of a major river.

Kherson took 6 days to fall, Nasiriyah ~10. In both cases, other elements pushed ahead beforehand, but the Russians have only progressed ~80km...
@TheStudyofWar In the Russian case, they had to secure another river crossing, at Mykolaiv on the Southern Bug (Pivdenny Buh).

They have also begun probing a second crossing at Voznesensk (map from militaryland.net), >200 km over the Dnieper.
@TheStudyofWar The advance south of the Dnieper has been slower. In part this is because of fighting at Melitopol, which was over by 1 March, but the city was also bypassed by forces advancing along the coast and up to the river. Progress here has been >300 km past Mariupol (>30 km/day).
@TheStudyofWar This is about the same as the advances from the eastern border near Sumy to the outskirts of Kiev.

Meanwhile, progress to the west of Kiev has slowed as fighting in the suburbs and traffic jams in the logistics train delay progress.
@TheStudyofWar The biggest story is in the east. As some Russian forces are besiege Kharkov, others have pushed past to attack the Ukrainian position at Izyum, a major road junction which will make it difficult for the Ukrainians to withdraw their forces in the Donbas.
@TheStudyofWar At the same time, the Russians seem intent on cutting off both the Dnieper crossings at Zaporizhzhia & Dnipro AND drawing a tighter cordon around the Donbas forces.

Which might explain....
@TheStudyofWar ....the reported attempt to relieve Kharkov. EXTREMELY unlikely to achieve its stated goals, given the overwhelming firepower Russia has assembled there, but it might relieve the pressure on Izyum enough to allow withdrawal of the Donbas forces.
@TheStudyofWar The race is on for the withdrawal, if that is indeed what's intended. There are four major routes between the Donbas and the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia crossings; the southern one has already been cut off in multiple places and the northern one is threatened at Izyum....
@TheStudyofWar ...so expect a race to Pokrovske and possibly Pavlograd. After that, the last major urban battle will be Dnipro.
@TheStudyofWar Around 45k soldiers from Ukraine's best units were stationed in the Donbas at the beginning of hostilities, so there is a lot at stake for both sides. So much so that we might expect Russia to increase its use of air, even in the face of air defenses.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with The Bazaar of War

The Bazaar of War Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bazaarofwar

The Bazaar of War Profile picture
May 24
The role of cavalry in the Greco-Turkish War is fascinating. It demonstrated the tactical futility of horse against modern weaponry—already seen in World War I—but also proved capable of extraordinary operational results when employed correctly.🧵 Image
Both sides used mounted units extensively for scouting, a complement to aerial reconnaissance—it was Turkish cavalry that spotted the Greek flanking maneuver at the Sakarya, allowing them to reposition forces in time for the battle. Image
But the Turks had a particular advantage in this arm, which had for centuries been their traditional strength: at Sakarya, their cavalry outnumbered the Greeks over 2 to 1. Image
Read 15 tweets
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Apr 7
Hattin was a singular battle. It’s hard to think of any other where so large an army (~23,000) was so thoroughly destroyed—only a few hundred escaped at most. Yet the Kingdom of Jerusalem endured for another century, showing the limits of straightforward “annihilation”. Image
In the months after Hattin, Saladin exploited his victory by sweeping up the towns and castles of the Kingdom, including Jerusalem itself.

One major city held out, however: the eminently defensible port of Tyre. Saladin initially bypassed it to pluck easier targets. Image
This allowed the remnants of the Crusader army and nearby garrisons to take refuge in Tyre, reinforced by the timely arrival of an expedition from overseas. When Saladin finally lay siege in November, it was too late—the garrison was too strong and winter rains soon came. Image
Read 9 tweets
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Feb 8
How the Confederates (of the Grand Alliance) stopped the Union (of the French & Spanish crowns).

The War of the Spanish Succession is known for its battles (Blenheim, Ramillies) & campaigns (Marlborough's march). But most interesting is the strategic relations among theaters.🧵 Image
The WSS was fought by two blocs:
-Bourbons: France, Spain, Bavaria (plus Portugal and Savoy, which defected in 1703)
-Grand Alliance: England, Holland, HRE

Unlike the later wars of Louis XV, these were very coherent coalitions that fought for united ends.
Image
This meant that fighting took place in a huge number of independent theaters of operation, many of which were in close geographic proximity. In Europe alone:
-Low Countries
-Moselle
-Rhineland
-Bavaria
-SE France
-N Italy
-E Spain
-Portugal/W Spain Image
Read 15 tweets
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Jan 18
Louis XIV & Louis XV were very different in character, but both fought 3 major wars that followed a remarkably similar arc:

1. Small war over points of honor that rapidly expanded
2. Large war that saw many victories but no real gains
3. Large war that saw defeats and losses
🧵 Image
Image
1. The Franco-Dutch War (1672-78) & War of the Polish Succession (1733-35)

These were the smallest large wars of their reigns. Both started out limited conflicts over points of honor, then spread to other parts of Europe as natural rivalries with the Habsburgs took over.Image
Image
Louis XIV invaded the Holland in 1672 to punish it for its lack of support in a brief war with Spain a few years earlier (the War of Devolution). This was coordinated with a naval attack by England, which had already fought two wars with the Dutch in as many decades. Image
Read 19 tweets
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Jan 16
The wars of Louis XIV are criminally neglected in popular anglophone historiography. They were enormous in scope and consequence, shaping the map of modern Europe arguably even more than the Napoleonic wars.

But something else makes them worthy of study. Image
In the American market, the two most popular topics by far are WWII and the Civil War. The reasons are obvious: the scale, personal connection, US involvement, etc. But there's another reason they continue to draw more scholarly and professional military attention...
And that is that they're interesting at every level of war: from the grand strategic to theater strategy, tactics and operations.

Battles affected campaigns, campaigns in one theater affected those in another, so on and so forth. Endlessly fascinating complexity. Image
Read 15 tweets
The Bazaar of War Profile picture
Jan 13
The gap between operations and strategy is tough to bridge because it usually overlaps with the civil-military divide. This was even harder when armies were composed of mercenaries.

The Venetians did it by employing officers resembling communist political commissars.🧵 Image
Every Venetian army was accompanied by two officers called provveditori. This is sometimes translated as “commissioner” or “commissary”, as they oversaw army administration of the army. But they also had a political and strategic role.
Perhaps uncoincidentally, this other role is best described by the word commissar—the Russian word for commissary. Proveditors were tasked with ensuring the loyalty of mercenary captains and making sure their operations supported Venice’s overall war strategy.Image
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(