I try not to make too many predictions. I think given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, an unworkable concept of operations, little prepared for a sustained war like this, I give it ~3 more weeks before this is an exhausted force. 1/
Exhausted in terms of combat effectiveness. What follows next I don’t know. Maybe a ceasefire where both sides reorganize and resupply, maybe a settlement. It depends on the course of the war and the situation in Russia. End.
That’s not indicative of either side winning, or the war ending. I can’t predict how the next few weeks will go. Just looking at it from my limited perspective, I see this phase of it as bounded, especially given how the war began.
I fear folks may read this too positively. A lot can happen in a few weeks. A ceasefire is often not the end of a war, but rather may enable its continuation.
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