🧵 As carnage rains down on Ukraine, the consequences for British politics are trivial by comparison. But they are worth considering nonetheless, not least because they are more subject to our control. There are optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. [THREAD]
1. In the optimistic scenario, the UK begins to roll back some of the more destructive tendencies of its politics. It finally tackles London's role as a laundromat for dirty money, overhauling legal & regulatory systems that protect stolen wealth & shield its owners from scrutiny
2. In this scenario, UK politics ends its heroin-addiction on donations from the super-rich. It shuts down the Advisory Boards, unincorporated associations & cash-for-access networks through which the tendrils of plutocracy force their way into democratic politics & choke it off.
3. It begins to address the absurd mismatch between the scale of Britain's global ambitions & the resources it's willing to commit to them. And it starts to pursue a grown-up, post-Brexit relationship with the EU, rather than pretending that the EU ceased to exist in January 2020
4. In this pathway, the UK rebuilds the defences against the political model Putin represents. It rejects the lure of authoritarian "strong men", upholds independent media, fortifies the state against corruption & recognises the danger when leaders lie to the public with impunity
5. Perhaps most optimistically, govt recognises the costs that sanctions will impose at home, as food & fuel prices rise. It acknowledges that the burden cannot fall on the poorest; that if the UK is to present a united front abroad, it needs to rebalance burden-sharing at home.
6. That's the optimistic scenario. But the forces against which it's pushing are deeply embedded. It's no accident that London became the oligarchic playground of choice. For years, those close to power actively promoted that model to the world. thetimes.co.uk/article/conser…
7. Rewiring the legal and regulatory architecture of oligarchy would be a long and complex task: not the sort of thing at which British politics excels. More likely: govt will give itself powers to sanction specific individuals, while leaving the fundamental problems unaddressed.
8. So the pessimistic scenario is that current events simply exacerbate the problems of UK politics. Instead of reforming the law, we'll enhance the ability of govt to override it. We'll have more chest-thumping about global leadership, while ignoring the resource gap beneath it.
9. There's already a serious danger that economic pressure on the Russian state, and on the foreign assets of its elite, morphs into a kulturkampf on ordinary Russians living abroad. We've seen appalling statements from some MPs to this effect. metro.co.uk/2022/02/28/ukr…
10. In this gloomier scenario, calls for unity are used to stifle criticism & disable scrutiny. A cosplay Churchillism (only loosely connected to historical reality) amplifies a desire for "strong men" of our own, who embody "the will of the people" & stand above the usual rules.
11. In another recurring theme of British politics, there's little sign that government is ready to be honest with the public about the domestic costs of sanctions. Unless that changes, it may struggle to maintain public support for those measures, as food & fuel prices escalate.
12. Unless there is a serious and sustained attempt at sharing the domestic costs of sanctions, legitimate concern about energy prices may accelerate the backlash against Net Zero - a force that's been building on the Right for some time.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1477746310430212100
13. The war on Ukraine is raising hard political questions across the world: from defence spending in Germany, to nuclear policy in Japan, to the Trump legacy in the US. In Britain, we badly need an end to illusions. The danger is that we choose instead to retreat into them. ENDS
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