Convequity Profile picture
Mar 5 11 tweets 2 min read
No doubt the war & rising geopolitical tensions will lead to more ransomware & other cybercrime.

Here is a thread highlighting the key security areas & the associated strongest vendors to prosper.

$PANW, $FTNT, $S, $ZS, $CRWD, $OKTA, Illumio, Netskope
War will escalate state-backed attacks >>> more funding going to skilled bad actors.

This funding will pay for increased automation to scan for openings across the web > therefore enterprises w/ global IT sprawl are most vulnerable.

$PANW has the best solution to fight this.
If/when bad actors do enter a network, they'll need to laterally move (east-west) searching for systems & data.

Best way to prevent this is with segmentation.

Illumio & $PANW are BoB for microsegmentation for cloud.

$FTNT is best option for industrial environments (OT).
Of course, enterprises also need to secure north-south connections - i.e., client to data centre.

Best way to do this amid dist. environments is Zero Trust Network Access.

Best ZTNA vendors are $PANW, $ZS, $FTNT, Netskope, $NET
However, Zero Trust adds latency coz default stance for every connection request is Zero Trust & trust is built up from there.

This is why ZTNA needs to be accompanied by powerful risk engines that blend the right amount of security + user exp.

$OKTA & $PANW are best solution
We mentioned east-west & north-south but attacks can come from emp. surfing the web.

Could see more advanced drive-by malware downloads as peeps visit legit-looking sites.

To reduce risk firms need SWGs, poss with RBI.

Netskope, $ZS, Menlo Security, iBoss, $PANW, $FTNT, $NET
Even after having all the above implemented, some bad actors will still manage reach some endpoints (client devices & servers).

Best XDR vendors >>> $S, $PANW, $CRWD.
Not helping this treacherous security landscape is the rampant activity in the cloud.

Cloud-using firms need to give tools to devs to better secure things.

It's got to be $PANW again. Also $HCP.

Securing data in cloud also appears problematic.

Best bet is Netskope.
Summary, look for BoB related:

Removing improperly configured/decommissioned internet-facing assets

Secure east-west w/ segmentation

Secure north-south w/ ZTNA

> Add sophisticated risk engine for user exp

Secure web use

Secure endpoints

Help devs secure

& secure data
Almost forgot to mention. Despite all this enterprises will still need an in-house or outsourced SOC.

Skill in threat hunting & remediation and lots of autonomy & automation is required due to mass shortage in security personnel.

Good for $MNDT, $PANW, $S, & $CRWD
And promise this is last tweet.

Zero Trust Architectures need super fast networks to compensate for latency.

Good for $FTNT (SD-WAN BoB) and Netskope (lightning fast network w/ great SD-WAN integration).

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More from @convequity

Mar 4
1/ $OKTA thesis. Not advice.

a) An opportunity to exploit coz of investor short-sightedness

b) Core biz is strengthening & could become the most valuable aspect of Zero Trust

c) The cloud-native approach will eventually smother out incumbents in newly entered markets

cont.
2/

d) Relative attractiveness compared to $NET and $ZS

e) Current price looks to be the lower bound of intrinsic range

f) High SBC but we calculate a 5% dilution charge going forward – not excessive if you believe in the long-term thesis
3/ Yesterday $OKTA dropped 8% following its Q4 ER.

Expanding operating losses continue to put off investors.

However, the increase in losses is entirely attributable to the temporary Auth0 integration expenses.
Read 22 tweets
Mar 1
1/8 We’re big believers in the utility of #Blockchain – use cases such as real estate, B2B contracts, supply chains etc.

Though, with the philosophy pertaining to society and the human psyche, can decentralization reach the potential many believe?
2/8 In much of their work, philosophers such as #Nietzsche & novelists like #Dostoevsky (who is studied a lot by philosophers), theorized that utopia was unattainable due to our fundamental desires for greed, power, selfishness, gratification, jealousy, etc.
3/8 As a consequence, there will always be the haves and have-nots across various parts of society.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 26
1/6 $PLTR's technological advantages can be described in a few ways, though we think it's their ontological skills that underpins most of what they can do.

An ontology is a shared vocabulary or language that maps out relationships between things.
2/6 The Internet has advanced thanks to various ontologies.

Without an ontology your search engine wouldn't be able to find & retrieve information from websites.

Ontologies are also needed to make social networks/ecommerce sites work - so people can find other people/products.
3/6 Just imagine not having a comprehensive ontology across the Internet.

You're surfing the web & can only access some websites and not others. Or can't access some pages on a website.

Trying to find the info you require would be very frustrating.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
1) Here is a short thread outlining the investment case for $INTC. Not investment advice.

$INTC’s EV/EBITDA is 5.5x vs an industry avg of 21x – mainly due to expectation that INTC will disappoint yet again.

These 4 components might make you think differently. Image
2) $INTC has fallen behind the comp due to its stubbornness to sustain its rigid vertical integration whilst other semi players specialized (either in foundry or design).

The new IDM 2.0 strategy disentangles its foundry biz from its chip design innovation.
3) IFS (foundry part of IDM 2.0) will serve external custom & INTC’s needs to achieve max utilization.

It’ll allow INTC to leverage it’s $100bn of high-quality assets, spread R&D cost, & increase margins over time.

They'll also outsource prod of some designs to ensure GTM.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1
1/ Meta ($FB) has been out of favour for the past 5 months. Prospects of the Metaverse hasn’t interested investors enough to overcome the media negativity relating to algos, whistleblowers, & Apple’s privacy policies.

This thread shares some thoughts about Meta & the metaverse.
2/ During the month prior to Facebook Connect on 28th Oct & subsequent Nov rally, the core enabler of m'verse remained flat whilst key players were hyped.

Jan market meltdown leveled things but we see the Oct/Nov action reveals the underappreciation of Meta’s role/potential.
3/ The subdued stock response to Zuckerberg’s metaverse vision was in large part due to ongoing controversy connected to its algorithms, negative sentiment re Apple privacy moves, & the name change appearing as an attempt to mislead the public & deflect criticism.
Read 23 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
$FTNT investment case. Not investment advice

1) Secular tailwinds. 2) Significant relative mispricing. 3) Moderate DCF undervaluation. 4) Share buyback.

$FTNT's been our best performer in the past 13 months though we're still looking to add on dips. This thread will explain why
1) Secular tailwinds

There are several catalysts + tailwinds that funnel straight into FTNT. And these trends are still very young thus providing a long runway of growth.

This diagram is the basis for the thesis.
1) Heightened awareness/call to action triggered by the proliferation of the most sophisticated stealthy cyberattacks (like the SolarWinds breach unveiled in Dec-20).
Read 20 tweets

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