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Christo Grozev Profile picture
@christogrozev
Mar 5, 2022 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia's military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn't sure if it was authentic - as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.
This letter appeared different though: it came via a reputable source (founder of gulagu.net), and it was way longer than a forger would choose to make it (the longer the text, the more risk of making an error).
I showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague. They didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but that's a different story.
Here's the text, worth reading: facebook.com/vladimir.osech…

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 12
This must be the funniest Russian Intel failure I have seen. It's 'Allo 'allo level. The FBI read the Whatsapp (!) chats between FSB's Col. Popov and his asset Ionov, and indicted them. And the two continued to discuss the indictment...on Whatsapp!!!

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"Who is Grand Jury"? Asks an FSB colonel. Image
Read 5 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 4
DOJ indicted today RT's employee Konstantin Kalashnikov for organizing illicit dissemination of fake news aiming to poison the domestic US election debate. Aptly, his Facebook profile is named "Novichok"
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Born in Donetsk, Ukraine, Konstiantyn/Konstantin was the (adopted) son of Donetsk's deputy mayor who sided with the Russian invaders in 2014. Here, the two in a "Dolce & Gabanna family" photo they posted on the Dolce & Gabanna website for a competition. Image
Travel record show that while working for RT and living in Russia, Konstantin used his visa-advantageous Ukrainian passport to travel throughout Europe, the UK, and made 4 trips the US West Coast between 2016 and 2021. How he got a US visa given his background is interesting.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 3
Because this "story" is getting some undue attention, I will explain how it first came to my attention and why I concluded it was not true (and helped some colleagues not rush with a misleading scoop).
I was on vacation 2 weeks ago when I got a message from @JulianRoepcke. He had gotten an incredible scoop from an anonymous source, but - as responsible journalists should do - needed to be 100% certain that the story can be validated. He asked me for a second opinion.
The "source" claimed that he had seen a person very similar to the pilot Maxim Kuzminov observing an airshow in Czechia, and commenting to his bodyguard in Russian. The bodyguard addressed him as "Max". All very convincing so far.
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Read 16 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 7
Putin has called an emergency meeting of the Russian security council today. While Russia's MoD has not yet acknowledged Ukraine's counter-incursion into Russia, Russian military telegram bloggers are sounding alarm (chart w/ scale of incursion from one of the telegram channels) Image
The MoD just came up with this bullsjit statement. Image
Putin says "the enemy has launched a large scale provocation". He expects the FSB to report to him soon what's happening, meantime orders locK authorities to take care of people.
Well, at least that settles the dispute whether it's small vs large scale.
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Read 5 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 2
The following is simply an opinion on why Putin agreed (counterintuitively) to a swap deal before Trump came to power (which in Russian calculus has been a given for over a year). The Trump campaign has proposed that this was a sign of Putin's fear of a better-negotiating Trump.
Even colleagues and analysts not invested in Trump have posited that this was the result of "an unpredictable Trump" that the Kremlin is not comfortable with
As someone involved with the calculus for over 2 years, my answer is different. I believe the Kremlin finally realized Germany is not a pushover that will do what the US tells them to. (This took a lot of back channel explaining to seep through to Putin)
Read 6 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 2
.@IlyaYashin (who had explicitly asked not to be included into exchange lists as he didn't want to make Putin happy by leaving, I can confirm that), tells us how 2 days before the swap he was told to write a plea for clemency to Putin (1/2) Image
He refused. Said he would not plead to a war criminal. The next day they asked him again. Instead, he wrote this letter. It said "I refuse to be exchanged against my will as this is unconstitutional". Yet, he is here, "extradited, not swapped". Image
He says his first instinct was to turn around and go back to his homeland. Yet, he realizes that if he does that, this will mean an end to all future swaps. So he will stay here to fight for freedom of all political prisoners in Russia. "My goal so to go back to a free Russia"
Read 4 tweets

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