Thread by @jagdfliegen

UKR-RUS-Airwar:

Yesterday both sides reporteted heavy clashes and losses in the air. A thread about the situation in the air according to official numbers of both sides. 1/12
#UkraineKrieg #ukrainewar #ukraineairwar

The Ukrainian Airforce (UAF) reported yesterday the shotdown of
- 1x Su-30SM
- 2 Su-34
- 2 Su-25
- 2 Mi-24/35
- 2 Mi-8
- 1 UAV
What‘s striking: The could present a lot of material. 2/12

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1500092495979499523?s=20&t=hPnAdjndNThGvj-jd5Pi2A

The russian defense ministry reported an aircombat near Shitomir. It claims the shotdown of 4 UAF Su-27 and a Su-25 in near Neshna. Also 1 Mi-8 helicopter and 1 UAV should be destroyed. Currently there is no material presented by russians or ukrainians to booster this claim. 3/12

Especially the shotdown of 2 Su-34 bomber is notable. The Su-34 ist the fighter-bomber variant the Su-27 fighter. Since the Su-27 is the russian couterpart of the american F-15 Eagle, the Su-34 is the couterpart of the american Strike Eagle. So it is big and sophisticated. 4/12

Beside the wreckage the ukrainians showed the pilots of the planes. (I won’t show it here). One Su-34 pilot alive was in bad shape. He was wounded and he had overweight. The Ukrainians claimed he bombed in Syria - seems not true. 5/12

https://twitter.com/NathanPatin/status/1500118957617041415?s=20&t=hPnAdjndNThGvj-jd5Pi2A

But the photo shows already in Syria pilots had some overweight. This is really a sign of bad training in russian Airforce VKS. The Su-34 should be able to pull some G-Forces (needs muscles). Although not intend to do aircombat this ability is needed to evade rockets. 6/12

The Su-34 as a modern plane should be able to avoid AD-rockets by long range precision guided munition (PGM), ECM and good training and tactics. For dropping more flares and chaff the Su-34 has a huge conus at its tail. 7/12

A more broader view on the air war can be given by the official russian numbers. First: the yesterday claim of shooting down 4 UAF Su-27 is clearly a confessian by russian DOD that UAF was not annihilated in the first days. Although it took some heavy blows. 8/12

Second: By yesterday the Russians claimed the destruction of 69 airplanes on ground and 21 airplanes in the air and 58 UAV. Furthermore they claim the destruction 108 air-defense missile systems (BUK, S-300) and 68 radar stations. 9/12

Third: Numbers of different internet sources say the UAF had roughly 175 airplanes and over 320 anti-air-rocket-systems. Given the russian numbers would be correct, the half of the UAF airplanes and one third of the UAF AD is destroyed. 10/12

Four: Meaning UAF is still alive but shouldn't by air power theory and russian propaganda. But as UAF officially acknowledged they had „irreversible“ losses in the first days. Claiming the destruction of 44 airplanes, 48 helicopters, 4 UAV and 21 AD-systems by 6 March. 11/12

Conclusion: UAF is alive and fights back. VKS is underperfoming as russian land forces do. Numbers are on the russian side. The loss of 2 Su-34 out of 130+ doesn't change the balance but questions the quality. 12/12

some photos by me at Moscow MAKS 2009. 13/12