1/
interesting thread.
note that the supposed leak from FSB analyst can't really be confirmed, and might be subtle propaganda just as well.
"we are soooo weak" has been used by Russia historically in strategic ways.
interesting thread.
note that the supposed leak from FSB analyst can't really be confirmed, and might be subtle propaganda just as well.
"we are soooo weak" has been used by Russia historically in strategic ways.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937
2/
i concur with the commentary; there will be price shocks but nowhere near dramatic famines.
btw, cue all those crying "why are we wasting so much food every year".
i concur with the commentary; there will be price shocks but nowhere near dramatic famines.
btw, cue all those crying "why are we wasting so much food every year".
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301351263244289
3/
remember Suvorov's "Icebreaker"?
people critique it with "show us the documents in archives??"
well lookie here:
remember Suvorov's "Icebreaker"?
people critique it with "show us the documents in archives??"
well lookie here:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301353381363712
4/
wow, they taught our wokes well: "diversity is our strength", and so many other mis-reporting coming from the woke manufacturers of consent follows that model.
wow, they taught our wokes well: "diversity is our strength", and so many other mis-reporting coming from the woke manufacturers of consent follows that model.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301355990204420
5/
wouldn't be surprised.
the modern-day Chechen power structure is very much detached from its past roots of strength.
wouldn't be surprised.
the modern-day Chechen power structure is very much detached from its past roots of strength.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500302135199617027
6/
a subtle dig at the antifragility of representative system in the face of war: the inherent loss of legitimacy from acquiescing overrides the legalistic "but he's the guy".
a subtle dig at the antifragility of representative system in the face of war: the inherent loss of legitimacy from acquiescing overrides the legalistic "but he's the guy".
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500303364738846724
7/
a representative system backing out of a war *requires* manufacturing consent.
a representative system backing out of a war *requires* manufacturing consent.
https://twitter.com/DoppelMark/status/1242833278681350144
9/
a bit on the nose. "divisions" rather than BTGs? "lost contact"?? i understand the guys in the fields have spotty comms, but from an analyst's POV the contact is between him and the HQs.
a bit on the nose. "divisions" rather than BTGs? "lost contact"?? i understand the guys in the fields have spotty comms, but from an analyst's POV the contact is between him and the HQs.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500303946308456448
10/
gotta disagree again - reads too much like what westerners want to hear: "we are helping". this is just too unbelievable, given options to trade south and east.
and, frankly, to continue trade oil & gas west.
gotta disagree again - reads too much like what westerners want to hear: "we are helping". this is just too unbelievable, given options to trade south and east.
and, frankly, to continue trade oil & gas west.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500305539707801601
11/
bolsheviks as the convenient force for "hire" against the others. all they require in payback is them climbing up the rungs of power 🤔
bolsheviks as the convenient force for "hire" against the others. all they require in payback is them climbing up the rungs of power 🤔
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500329996140761092
13/
a broader reading: "our propaganda machine can't make those points *stick*"
a broader reading: "our propaganda machine can't make those points *stick*"
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500330009524772865
14/
i have a problem with "but what about Ukraine having done this" and "but what about NATO having done that".
i have a problem with "but what about Ukraine having done this" and "but what about NATO having done that".
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500330015170260992
15/
a lot of commentary (yours truly included) overlooked the possibility of Syria pushing back while Russia is distracted.
a lot of commentary (yours truly included) overlooked the possibility of Syria pushing back while Russia is distracted.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500330023529574402
16/
biggest red flag so far.
we know Russia operates & develops nuclear tech (power & subs) mostly fine, and also ballistic & cruise missiles mostly fine too.
biggest red flag so far.
we know Russia operates & develops nuclear tech (power & subs) mostly fine, and also ballistic & cruise missiles mostly fine too.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500331258395590659
17/
thanks to to Igor (@igorsushko) for the translation.
i am somewhat skeptical whether the leak is real and straightforward.
thanks to to Igor (@igorsushko) for the translation.
i am somewhat skeptical whether the leak is real and straightforward.
correction for typo in the above tweet:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500330006567784448
18/
ps: this is another, if lesser, red flag for the text not being a genuine thing
ps: this is another, if lesser, red flag for the text not being a genuine thing
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