- If Remain win, everything is screwed because the country is split down the middle, the EU is crap - look at how it's treated Greece! - the boil won't be lanced and politicians will act like it's business as usual
- If Leave win based on a pack of lies, half the country will never forgive those responsible. Traitors. Criminals.
Swathes of the other half will wake up to how what's being promised is impossible, and never trust democratic politics again.
- No matter whether Leave or Remain win, Europe is in decline. Welfare states will be decimated everywhere as more and more money is needed to provide pensions and healthcare to ageing populations... who are reactionary and don't want immigration.
So who pays for it?
- Their being so reactionary and living so much longer than before means the kind of change we desperately need won't come... and in the UK, Labour is totally screwed by FPTP and can't win if it offers that sort of change. Meaning even MORE public disenchantment.
- China and India are rising. The world is titling eastwards.
Towards an religious, ethnonationalist state... and another which controls absolutely everything in its people's lives, and is the equivalent of George Orwell's boot stamping on a human face.
- The kind of change desperately needed in the US to actually help people and send white nationalism packing won't come, because the Constitution effectively forbids it.
Specifically, through its insane over-representation of small, rural states.
Meaning that despite an actual Democratic majority, it's impossible for the Democrats to deliver. Which will disenchant more and more and undermine the idea of democracy in the US altogether.
- The whole world needs a new Bretton Woods. Which won't happen.
It won't happen because large developing states won't allow it to; neither will First World tax havens.
Meaning that jobs continue to disappear out of the West, and pay continues to flatline.
- And on top of all this: climate change. Which we won't act on.
First World governments won't act because their citizens won't pay for anything which affects their ways of ease.
Large developing countries like India won't act because their view is: why should they? Why shouldn't they have what we've all had for so long?
"Whatever happens next Thursday, everything is screwed. Forever".
It's the biggest writing regret of my life that I didn't publish it. And it didn't even mention nuclear war.
With regard to which, I highly recommend nobody re-watches Threads. TV to make you shit yourself.
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In April 2016, two months before Brexit, 7 months before Trump won, and weeks after Crimea's annexation, The Atlantic published a huge profile of and interview with Barack Obama: focusing on his foreign policy.
Re-reading it now, one little section really jumped out at me.
"Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there".
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-NATO country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do".
(Me again): You can sum up Obama's approach to foreign policy in four words.
Other than the UK's monstrous indulgence of oligarchs (remember that Lebedev owns The Independent and Evening Standard, so take anything they report with a pinch of salt), the West is at the limits of what it can do now.
As today's events have confirmed regarding energy supplies
Ukraine needs weapons, it needs planes and helicopters, it needs massive, ongoing financial and humanitarian aid, it needs worldwide resistance to Putin.
But there are no more sanctions we can implement without massively sanctioning ourselves and creating misery for our people.
How quickly we (especially Germany and Eastern Europe) can get from A - horrendous dependence on Russian gas and oil - to B, dependence on others, to C, green energy, is paramount here.
The tragedy of Syria with no aims, no exit strategy, and where Assad's defeat would've left a terrifying power vacuum filled in all likelihood by terrorists bent on all our destruction.
It is quite extraordinary how after Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, people think the US President can just wave a magic wand.
Quite extraordinary how people think winning a war and bringing peace is like buying a damn Mars bar.
Jan Masaryk was the Czech Foreign Minister. When, just three years after his country was liberated from the Nazis, the Communists staged a military coup which removed the democratic government, he either committed suicide or was pushed out of a third-floor window.
The investigation into his death lasted so long, it closed only last year: inconclusively. Murder and suicide were both considered possibilities.
Meanwhile, President Edvard Benes - President from 1935 to 1938, President-in-Exile from 1938 to 1945, President from 1945 to 1948 - was vilified by Soviet and Communist media following the coup.