Shaun Lawson Profile picture
Mar 6 11 tweets 2 min read
In 2016, I so nearly wrote an article which was sitting in my head and would've been the best piece I've ever written. Story of my life. 😭

It was right before the referendum. Its thesis was: no matter who wins, everything is screwed. Forever. The ultimate counsel of despair.
- If Remain win, everything is screwed because the country is split down the middle, the EU is crap - look at how it's treated Greece! - the boil won't be lanced and politicians will act like it's business as usual
- If Leave win based on a pack of lies, half the country will never forgive those responsible. Traitors. Criminals.

Swathes of the other half will wake up to how what's being promised is impossible, and never trust democratic politics again.
- No matter whether Leave or Remain win, Europe is in decline. Welfare states will be decimated everywhere as more and more money is needed to provide pensions and healthcare to ageing populations... who are reactionary and don't want immigration.

So who pays for it?
- Their being so reactionary and living so much longer than before means the kind of change we desperately need won't come... and in the UK, Labour is totally screwed by FPTP and can't win if it offers that sort of change. Meaning even MORE public disenchantment.
- China and India are rising. The world is titling eastwards.

Towards an religious, ethnonationalist state... and another which controls absolutely everything in its people's lives, and is the equivalent of George Orwell's boot stamping on a human face.
- The kind of change desperately needed in the US to actually help people and send white nationalism packing won't come, because the Constitution effectively forbids it.

Specifically, through its insane over-representation of small, rural states.
Meaning that despite an actual Democratic majority, it's impossible for the Democrats to deliver. Which will disenchant more and more and undermine the idea of democracy in the US altogether.

- The whole world needs a new Bretton Woods. Which won't happen.
It won't happen because large developing states won't allow it to; neither will First World tax havens.

Meaning that jobs continue to disappear out of the West, and pay continues to flatline.

- And on top of all this: climate change. Which we won't act on.
First World governments won't act because their citizens won't pay for anything which affects their ways of ease.

Large developing countries like India won't act because their view is: why should they? Why shouldn't they have what we've all had for so long?
"Whatever happens next Thursday, everything is screwed. Forever".

It's the biggest writing regret of my life that I didn't publish it. And it didn't even mention nuclear war.

With regard to which, I highly recommend nobody re-watches Threads. TV to make you shit yourself.

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More from @shaunjlawson

Mar 8
THREAD: Laurie Penny v Julie Bindel and JK Rowling. Or to put it another way: Laurie Penny against the world.

The usual disclaimer applies before I start. I'm a man. This isn't my fight or my struggle. I'm just a bloke commenting on the internet.
I'm also not here to make Penny's suffering worse or something. I wish them well. I wish all fully paid-up members of the human race well.

Laurie says they're taking time off Twitter in any case. I do appeal for no pile-ons against anyone resulting from this thread.
I also have no doubt whatsoever about the very real trauma Penny has been through during her life. I'm not here to minimise that in any way either.

But that trauma is not some get-out clause for writing an objectively awful book.
Read 49 tweets
Mar 8
"Not sure how to take this. Because I'm a total and utter waste of space".
Fascists in Ukraine!

Fascists in Ukraine led by Jewish President whose family fought the Nazis!

Fascists in Ukraine with 1 far-right MP out of 250!

Fascists in Ukraine when every other party is completely mainstream!

Fascists in Ukraine as Russia bombs Holocaust memorials!
You stupid, thick as mince imbecile.

Here's a newsflash. When another country invades and annexes your country's territory, a few members of an army are usually radicalised.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 7
In April 2016, two months before Brexit, 7 months before Trump won, and weeks after Crimea's annexation, The Atlantic published a huge profile of and interview with Barack Obama: focusing on his foreign policy.

It is quite massively informative.

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
Re-reading it now, one little section really jumped out at me.

"Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there".
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-NATO country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do".

(Me again): You can sum up Obama's approach to foreign policy in four words.

"Don't do stupid stuff".
Read 12 tweets
Mar 7
Other than the UK's monstrous indulgence of oligarchs (remember that Lebedev owns The Independent and Evening Standard, so take anything they report with a pinch of salt), the West is at the limits of what it can do now.

As today's events have confirmed regarding energy supplies
Ukraine needs weapons, it needs planes and helicopters, it needs massive, ongoing financial and humanitarian aid, it needs worldwide resistance to Putin.

But there are no more sanctions we can implement without massively sanctioning ourselves and creating misery for our people.
How quickly we (especially Germany and Eastern Europe) can get from A - horrendous dependence on Russian gas and oil - to B, dependence on others, to C, green energy, is paramount here.

It can't be done overnight or anything like it.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
That's the tragedy of Syria in which intervening against Assad would've meant intervening on al-Qaeda/Daesh's side. Oooh, GREAT IDEA.

The tragedy of Syria in which there were no substantive democratic or just secular anti-Assad forces we could support.
The tragedy of Syria with no aims, no exit strategy, and where Assad's defeat would've left a terrifying power vacuum filled in all likelihood by terrorists bent on all our destruction.
It is quite extraordinary how after Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, people think the US President can just wave a magic wand.

Quite extraordinary how people think winning a war and bringing peace is like buying a damn Mars bar.

The actual source of our weakness? Iraq.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 6
Jan Masaryk was the Czech Foreign Minister. When, just three years after his country was liberated from the Nazis, the Communists staged a military coup which removed the democratic government, he either committed suicide or was pushed out of a third-floor window.
The investigation into his death lasted so long, it closed only last year: inconclusively. Murder and suicide were both considered possibilities.
Meanwhile, President Edvard Benes - President from 1935 to 1938, President-in-Exile from 1938 to 1945, President from 1945 to 1948 - was vilified by Soviet and Communist media following the coup.
Read 4 tweets

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