ChristoGrozev@bsky.social Profile picture
Mar 7, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv.
Russia, if you're listening: delete your army.
(not to be confused with Gen. Valery Gerassimov, of the often misconstrued Gerassimov Doctrine)
Claimed by Ukrainian military intelligence. Confirmed a Russian source,
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This is not the worst part. In the phone call in which the FSB officer assigned to the 41st Army reports the death to his boss in Tula, he says they've lost all secure communications. Thus the phone call using a local sim card. Thus the intercept. Image
His boss, who makes a looong pause when he hears the news of Gerassimov's death (before swearing), is Dmitry Shevchenko, a senior FSB officer from Tula. We identified him by searching for his phone (published by Ukrainian military Intel) in open source lookup apps. Image
In the call, you hear the Ukraine-based FSB officer ask his boss if he can talk via the secure Era system. The boss says Era is not working.
Era is a super expensive cryptophone system that @mod_russia introduced in 2021 with great fanfare. It guaranteed work "in all conditions" Image
The idiots tried to use the Era cryptophones in Kharkiv, after destroying many 3g cell towers and also replacing others with stingrays. Era needs 3g/4g to communicate.
The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates.
In closing, here's the origin of the greatest military opsec failure of all time.
First, Putin signed the so-called @bellingcat law, prohibiting soldiers from posting on social media.
Then he told the military to not use foreign phones as they are "insecure".
The rest is history. ImageImage

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More from @christogrozev

Dec 5
BREAKING: the House sub-committee on intelligence says "now convinced that foreign adversary behind AHI (Havana syndrome) incidents", "Intelligence community has hindered the subcommittee's efforts" to get to the truth.
The Subcommittee is aware that the IC continues to withhold valuable information from the Subcommittee. For this reason, a final unclassified report cannot be issued at this time. In addition, the Subcommittee plans to issue a classified report that explains why the Subcommittee finds the conclusions reached in the ICA dubious at best, and misleading at worst. It is not possible, in an unclassified format, to detail the full scale and scope of the Subcommittee’s investigation, as well as the findings that have resulted from this investigation. Nevertheless, it is the hope of the Subcommittee that this interim unclassified report will shed light on the need to better understand AHIs and the toll they have taken on the IC workforce.
The Subcommittee found that the process resulting in the ICA, titled “Updated Assessment on Anomalous Health Incidents,” which is often used to portray a consensus discounting foreign adversary involvement in AHIs, lacked analytic integrity and was highly irregular in its formulation. The Subcommittee’s investigation has uncovered information illustrative of problems with the ICA’s creation, review, and release. Some of these problems may include a rush to convey a consensus amongst elements of the IC in an effort to control the narrative with the American public, policymakers, foreign partners and adversaries, and IC employees.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 12
This must be the funniest Russian Intel failure I have seen. It's 'Allo 'allo level. The FBI read the Whatsapp (!) chats between FSB's Col. Popov and his asset Ionov, and indicted them. And the two continued to discuss the indictment...on Whatsapp!!!

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"Who is Grand Jury"? Asks an FSB colonel. Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 4
DOJ indicted today RT's employee Konstantin Kalashnikov for organizing illicit dissemination of fake news aiming to poison the domestic US election debate. Aptly, his Facebook profile is named "Novichok"
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Born in Donetsk, Ukraine, Konstiantyn/Konstantin was the (adopted) son of Donetsk's deputy mayor who sided with the Russian invaders in 2014. Here, the two in a "Dolce & Gabanna family" photo they posted on the Dolce & Gabanna website for a competition. Image
Travel record show that while working for RT and living in Russia, Konstantin used his visa-advantageous Ukrainian passport to travel throughout Europe, the UK, and made 4 trips the US West Coast between 2016 and 2021. How he got a US visa given his background is interesting.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 3
Because this "story" is getting some undue attention, I will explain how it first came to my attention and why I concluded it was not true (and helped some colleagues not rush with a misleading scoop).
I was on vacation 2 weeks ago when I got a message from @JulianRoepcke. He had gotten an incredible scoop from an anonymous source, but - as responsible journalists should do - needed to be 100% certain that the story can be validated. He asked me for a second opinion.
The "source" claimed that he had seen a person very similar to the pilot Maxim Kuzminov observing an airshow in Czechia, and commenting to his bodyguard in Russian. The bodyguard addressed him as "Max". All very convincing so far.
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Read 16 tweets
Aug 7
Putin has called an emergency meeting of the Russian security council today. While Russia's MoD has not yet acknowledged Ukraine's counter-incursion into Russia, Russian military telegram bloggers are sounding alarm (chart w/ scale of incursion from one of the telegram channels) Image
The MoD just came up with this bullsjit statement. Image
Putin says "the enemy has launched a large scale provocation". He expects the FSB to report to him soon what's happening, meantime orders locK authorities to take care of people.
Well, at least that settles the dispute whether it's small vs large scale.
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Read 5 tweets
Aug 2
The following is simply an opinion on why Putin agreed (counterintuitively) to a swap deal before Trump came to power (which in Russian calculus has been a given for over a year). The Trump campaign has proposed that this was a sign of Putin's fear of a better-negotiating Trump.
Even colleagues and analysts not invested in Trump have posited that this was the result of "an unpredictable Trump" that the Kremlin is not comfortable with
As someone involved with the calculus for over 2 years, my answer is different. I believe the Kremlin finally realized Germany is not a pushover that will do what the US tells them to. (This took a lot of back channel explaining to seep through to Putin)
Read 6 tweets

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