Thread by @MaximAlyukov

Since the beginning of the war, Russian pollsters have been publishing terrifying results suggesting that the majority of Russians support the invasion. Here is my take on why these results are inflated for @opendemocracyru

Short summary (11):

opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-…

1/ Self-selection bias. Regime critics have reasons to be afraid to express their views. They trust surveys less than regime supporters and are less likely to participate. More supporters in a sample ->  the results look like more people support the government’s actions.

2/ Social desirability. Regime critics may lie about their real preferences. Sometimes this effect does not happens, but in the current context it is likely. Last year 50% were afraid of repressions. Today Russia is experiencing much more cruel and visible repressions.

3/ State-controlled pollsters use very manipulative wordings spotlighting Putin and his decision. In a nutshell, respondents are not asked to express their views. They are asked to agree or disagree with Putin, which, again, is likely to trigger social desirability effect.

4/ The wordings also tap into  support for different issues. Putin supporters are likely to support "the operation", but not all. State-controlled pollsters lump together Putin and the "operation" replacing the topic of war with the topic of Putin and inflating the result.

5/ These wordings also tap into propagandistic cliches. Some people might have no strong opinion or no opinion on the issue at all, but wordings like “special military operation” hark back to propagandistic cliches used on state media and therefore guides their answers.

6/ Crucially, state-controlled pollsters offer categorical responses to questions, such as “yes” or “no”. The absence of "rather approve" or "rather disapprove" options hides a significant portion of citizens who are hesitant over the war and do not have strong opinions.

/7 These effects are likely to stack. Regime critics are less likely to participate = less critics in the sample. Some critics hide their preferences = more bias in favour of the regime. Some vacillating are swayed by wordings = more bias in favour of the regime.

8/ This doesn't mean that no one supports Russia's actions. We know a lot about these people - they are older, rely on television, share Soviet nostalgia, have emotional connection to the regime, etc. But they are not the majority as presented by pollsters.

9/ It is vicious circle. Autocrats gladly distribute these results because they now how they affect people. People often use responses of others to an issue as cues to form their own opinions. When unsure, they tend to think the way they think others think.

10/ Pollsters show them an incorrect picture of the real distribution of political preferences. These results suggest people who have no articulated opinions to take the government’s position, and encourages regime critics to hide their preferences.