Thread by @steve_larrison

A deeper look into the mutli-satellite launch agreement between AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX - a thread

$ASTS
#SpaceMob

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So by now, I am sure that all of SpaceMob has heard the news.

You either saw the tweet from @AST_SpaceMobile, you subscribed to emails from Investor Relations, or you were curious why your portfolio was up so much today and you started looking for answers.

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A multi-satellite launch agreement has been made with SpaceX.

But other than shares in the common stock going up 44.9% today, warrants going up 50.68% today, some 51 million plus shares of the common trading hands in a stock with a free float of 39 million shares and call
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options being revived from the dead, what does the news mean?

Obviously the market liked the news.

But is this a one-time pop in a stock that was deeply oversold and heavily shorted?

Or is there more to the news than just a press release?
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I believe that there is more to this than just a one time pop. But to understand the subtle messages in the press release and the 8-K filed with the SEC, you need to dig a little deeper.

The first thing that came to my mind when I read the news is that it removes some
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uncertainty.

When I wrote a thread about the delay of BlueWalker 3's spring launch, I mentioned that delays are common in the space industry.

I even speculated about potential delays that could interfere with the build out of phase 1 of SpaceMobile.
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You can see the potential delays that I speculated about here:

https://twitter.com/steve_larrison/status/1467345967208828931

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When I was speculating about potential delays, I never envisioned that Russia would invade the Ukraine and that the (unjustifiable) military action would lead to a series of economic sanctions flying between the free world and the communist world.

But here we are.
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If you follow space news, you will find that OneWeb (a UK based company building the equivalent of StarLink) told the Russians that they didn't want to do business with them because of the Ukranian situation.

nytimes.com/2022/03/03/sci…
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At about the same time, Russia announced that they didn't want to do business with OneWeb because of economic sanctions imposed by the UK.

Also, Russia has announced that they won't sell rocket motors for Sozuz rockets to western nations.

space.com/russia-removes…
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Here is a breakdown of orbital launches by country for 2021

The screen shot was taken from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_in_s…

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As you can see, Russia was the 3rd most active country in 2021.

That capacity is presently unavailable to western countries.

But the ground truth is actually worse.

A French company, Ariane Space, uses Soyuz rockets for their launch services.

And rocket motors and parts
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are no longer available to the French.

Here is what Ariane Space's launch schedule looks like for 2022.

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I took screen shots because I suspect that the online schedule may be changing soon. But you can view the live website at rocketlaunch.live/?filter=ariane…
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So by entering into the agreement that was announced today, AST SpaceMobile has avoided one potential cause of delay with early BlueBird1 launches.

But remember, this is space, and unexpected delays can happen at any point in time.

Now let's look a bit closer at the press
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release, and the 8-K filed with the SEC and see what we can infer from the news.

First the press release.

You can find it at businesswire.com/news/home/2022…
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There are 2 important points in the first paragraph
1) The summer 2022 launch of BW3
2) The launch of the first BlueBird1 satellite

Note the use of the word "first" and the singular tense of the word "satellite".

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I should have added a 3rd bullet to that last tweet - it's important that Abel mentioned that they have established a framework for future launches.

The screen shot below is the 2nd paragraph from the press release.

Notice how it uses the words "production satellites"

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Yes, plural, not singular.

This isn't a grammatical error. It is a clue that helps us understand what we see in the actual 8-K that was filed with the SEC.

You can find the launch agreement at sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
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This screen shot is from the launch agreement.

Even through all of the redacted information, there are numerous clues available.

First, there are Launch Service Agreements in place for BW3 and BlueBird 1.

Abel confirmed the Summer 2022 launch date in the press release,
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and it hasn't changed since the 8-K announcing the new launch window being confirmed with SpaceX was released earlier this year.

We also know that the cost of the BW3 launch was approximately $4 million before a 10% rescheduling fee from information obtained from an online
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cost estimator provided by SpaceX. Sadly, that calculator is down right now, so I am going to do a bit of guess work later on in this thread. But you can check the numbers when the system is up at spacex.com/rideshare/
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But the most interesting part of the Launch Services Agreement is the information about BB1 and BB2.

The way that I am interpreting the screenshot in my earlier tweet is that AST has agreed to a launch window for BB1, and that they want to get inline now for a pending
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launch of BB2.

If my interpretation is correct, this is major news.

As we know from the BW3 delay, a reschedule involves a rebooking fee.

If you are setting up a launch window right now, it means a couple of things:
1) You are pretty confident about the technology of BW3
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You don't make this move if you don't think that you will be ready for the launch in whatever window was agreed to.
2) Experience gained by repeating AIT processes (see

https://twitter.com/steve_larrison/status/1495188586181709826

) has given you a level of confidence in your ability to build satellites
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more systemically and predictably
3) You *MIGHT* already have a head start on the BB builds. (in past earnings calls, Abel has mentioned that AST has begun acquiring components with long lead times for the BB builds)
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I have seen a few people mention that the press release today was nothing that wasn't already known.

Frankly, if you believe that, you haven't been paying attention.

But there is more to digest from the 8-K.
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If you look at the 8-K (the earlier link to the SEC was to the Launch Services Agreement ) at sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…
, you will see the following verbiage:

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So even though certain parts of the Launch Services Agreement have been redacted, SpaceMob is a curious mob.

We know that the launch of BW3 was about $4 million and that there was a 10% penalty added to that for rescheduling the March/April 22 launch to the Summber '22
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window.

We also know that the BB satellites are approximately twice as big as BW3 and weigh twice as much.

Since the launch cost calculator is down right now, let's use $8 million as a place holder for the launch cost.

I am assuming that part of the $22.75 million being
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paid to SpaceX includes the BW3 launch fees, and the costs for 2 BB satellites to be launched.

That brings us to $20.4 million.

This is pure speculation, but the screen snippet includes the phrase "BW3 technical adjustments".

It's possible that technical details of the
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launch such as altitude or inclination may have changed.

But I doubt it.

What I am guessing is more likely is that the extra time used in testing may have resulted in adjustments being made to the Launch Vehicle Adapter.

If that guess is correct, it's great news.
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While the delay of the launch of BW3 has been disappointing, it would mean that the extra time provided by the delay has been put to very good use.
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https://twitter.com/steve_larrison/status/1501729418661613568