I am trying to dissect the UP elections. While these elections affect me personally, I am willing to look at the results dispassionately to understand what really happened. I have also reached out to my more knowledgeable friends. Here is my view (1/n) #UPElections
The core base
We are living in a time of the golden age of the BJP brand of politics. I have been looking at the data from some past elections. Even in the states where the BJP does badly/loses, it still manages a 25-30 percent vote share. (2/n)
We are living in a time of the golden age of the BJP brand of politics. I have been looking at the data from some past elections. Even in the states where the BJP does badly/loses, it still manages a 25-30 percent vote share. (2/n)
We can safely assume this to be the core voter base of the party. This base will never vote against the BJP, even if they get personally negatively affected by its policies (ref. Quint/Fatima Khan’s story on UP elections and Covid) (3/n)
The expanding base and the Dalit question
This core voter base is expanding by the day. New people are being roped in by favorable policies of the BJP/pursual of its core agenda. As these new people sign up to get benefits, they are tough to move away from. (4/n)
This core voter base is expanding by the day. New people are being roped in by favorable policies of the BJP/pursual of its core agenda. As these new people sign up to get benefits, they are tough to move away from. (4/n)
This is seen throughout the pockets where Dalit votes swing the elections. More and more Dalits vote for the BJP – traditionally or previously called the Brahmin Baniya party. The usual wisdom is that quadrangular contests benefit the BJP. (5/n)
However, when the BJP has an unshakeable core voter base, other parties need to hold on to their voter base. These elections saw a bipolar contest for the first time in years – Congress has been a former shadow of itself for years. (6/n)
This time BSP also was a non-force. Their vote base was up for grabs. They decided to shift en masse to BJP (non-Jatav Dalits had already migrated to the BJP years ago). BJP was able to rope them in with social programs/their core messaging. It worked. (7/n)
Yogi factor
The masses bought the narrative of Yogi the hard taskmaster. Many wanted a leader with an iron fist – esp. those who did not face fist's wrath or who were fed up with SP's ‘lawlessness’. Yogi cleaned the streets of UP – BJP's message accepted by the population (8/n)
The masses bought the narrative of Yogi the hard taskmaster. Many wanted a leader with an iron fist – esp. those who did not face fist's wrath or who were fed up with SP's ‘lawlessness’. Yogi cleaned the streets of UP – BJP's message accepted by the population (8/n)
The populism
Some believe that BJP has moved on from populism – probably half-truth. Just before the Budget, Modi made a trip to UP and handed down thousands of crores in payments for social programs. (9/n)
Some believe that BJP has moved on from populism – probably half-truth. Just before the Budget, Modi made a trip to UP and handed down thousands of crores in payments for social programs. (9/n)
DBT is a game changer – the age-old wisdom that only 15 p. of the one rupee spent reaches people no longer holds. Aadhar ensures that money reaches people, esp. those the govt. wants. Public memory is short-lived during elections. Money received before polls shifts opinion (10/n)
The socialist agenda
Then, is the more significant issue of BJP’s social programs – houses have been built under the PM Awas Yojana, Cylinders reached people under Ujjawala, Toilets built under Swachh Bharat, the free grain scheme during Covid did benefit people (11/n)
Then, is the more significant issue of BJP’s social programs – houses have been built under the PM Awas Yojana, Cylinders reached people under Ujjawala, Toilets built under Swachh Bharat, the free grain scheme during Covid did benefit people (11/n)
Modi alluded to this when he said how can people vote against him when they have eaten his “Salt”. This is a breath of fresh air in a country where benefits sparingly reach people. BJP may seem cultural and economic right-wing, but it is obsessed with social programs (12/n)
Even if a person hasn’t received all the benefits, the PR machinery informs them that others are receiving them. One of the three ideological pillars of the BJP is Deen Dayal Upadhyaya (the other two being Savarkar and Golwalkar), and Antyodaya is an ideological goal (13/n)
Women
It is highly likely women voted for the BJP disproportionately. The beneficiaries of many social schemes are primarily women. When Modi came to UP, he disbursed money among 3 lakh women under social schemes! (14/n)
It is highly likely women voted for the BJP disproportionately. The beneficiaries of many social schemes are primarily women. When Modi came to UP, he disbursed money among 3 lakh women under social schemes! (14/n)
It must have caused a shift. I am talking about lower-class and lower-caste women. Upper caste women are not a separate political constituent than upper-caste men -- not too different in my opinion. But don't buy into the BJP propaganda that Muslim women vote for BJP. (15/n)
Modi, Machine, Money, Media – The 4 Ms
1. Modi: Modi’s image is unshakeable; if the Opposition tries to attack it, it goes against them. (16/n)
1. Modi: Modi’s image is unshakeable; if the Opposition tries to attack it, it goes against them. (16/n)
2. Machine: I am not talking about EVM. The RSS and BJP electoral machine is unmatchable, especially at the grassroots – the BJP has the maximum number of Panna Pramukhs – workers in charge of every page of the electoral rolls at every booth level. (17/n)
Every city/block has an IT Cell that manages carefully created WhatsApp groups – framing and sending messages – propaganda and truth. Who can match that?
3. Money: The BJP outspends and outearns every other political party (by 6x), and we are talking about declared stuff (18/n)
3. Money: The BJP outspends and outearns every other political party (by 6x), and we are talking about declared stuff (18/n)
What gets spent over and above cannot even be imagined. Electoral bonds have completely changed the electoral funding in India and made it even more rotten.
4. Media: The local and national media has never existed as an extension of the ruling party before this. (19/n)
4. Media: The local and national media has never existed as an extension of the ruling party before this. (19/n)
What the prime time anchors do is well known, but more impactful are the local dailies – read their headlines to find out how they shift the public narrative (20/n)
The part-time opposition
India's democracy is facing a crisis for many reasons. The lack of opposition is a less talked about topic. The BJP is a 24x7 political party. Modi and Yogi are 24x7 politicians. The party and its leaders are in forever election fighting mode. (21/n)
India's democracy is facing a crisis for many reasons. The lack of opposition is a less talked about topic. The BJP is a 24x7 political party. Modi and Yogi are 24x7 politicians. The party and its leaders are in forever election fighting mode. (21/n)
Unlike the leaders of other parties that make time for elections from their busy schedules. The SP did give BJP a serious fight but whether it was present as an opposition in the past five years on the street or in the media or amongst the people. I don't think so. (22/n)
Cultural Agenda
Nothing above says that BJP’s cultural agenda hasn’t contributed to its rise and consolidation in UP. Like the 90s Gujarat, UP is the new application of Hindutva. In business parlance, Gujarat was the pilot, UP and the whole of India is the scaling up. (23/n)
Nothing above says that BJP’s cultural agenda hasn’t contributed to its rise and consolidation in UP. Like the 90s Gujarat, UP is the new application of Hindutva. In business parlance, Gujarat was the pilot, UP and the whole of India is the scaling up. (23/n)
The shift
Elections are as much an exercise in math and statistics as they are in politics. BJP’s vote share in the past three UP elections has hovered b/w 40 and 49%. The last time the BJP lost an election in UP was in 2012 when it received about 15%; SP received 30%. (24/n)
Elections are as much an exercise in math and statistics as they are in politics. BJP’s vote share in the past three UP elections has hovered b/w 40 and 49%. The last time the BJP lost an election in UP was in 2012 when it received about 15%; SP received 30%. (24/n)
For the opposition to win, it needed a tectonic shift in votes that is impossible without a ‘wave.’ The 'wave' that saw Modi rise to power in 2014. We now know that such an anti-BJP wave was non-existent. This entire analysis is post facto but I wrote about this earlier (25/n).
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