Thread by @InsiderNews

In Washington, there are fears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine may push President Vladimir Putin closer to China, forming a bloc against the West.

But the reality is more complicated. @Schwartzesque explains. ⬇️

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Putin is certainly a popular figure in China, and Beijing's state-run media have been broadly supportive of him.

And there's no question that Putin needs all the help he can get from China.

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As Western sanctions continue to cripple Russia's economy, Russia may increasingly rely on China as an economic lifeline.

China could also aid Russia by expanding its investments into Siberia and Russia's far east in exchange for timber, oil, and wheat.

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But what about China? Does Xi intend to capitalize on Putin's war on Ukraine, as some analysts fear, and form a strategic alliance against the West?

It's true that Xi and Putin have a lot in common, Schwartz writes.

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They both view the West as being in decline, experts say, but there’s also a key difference between the two leaders.

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Indeed, a closer look suggests that Xi has a lot to lose from supporting Putin, Schwartz says.

China may be Russia's largest trading partner, but Russia's modest economy isn't enough to even rank in China's top ten.

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China may be more interested in making sure the invasion doesn't interfere with its larger trading relationships with the West, Schwartz says.

There's a lot more money at stake, and China can't get some of the things it imports from the West elsewhere.

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Offering Russia too much support on the international stage could also undermine China's long-standing pitch to the global south that it respects the sovereignty of its smaller, militarily weak beneficiaries.

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Such conflicting aims — more than actual support for Russia — may have been a factor in China's decision to abstain from joining a @UN condemnation of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Schwartz writes.

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Even before the invasion, Beijing signaled it was trying to walk a middle road between Russia and the West.

Neither China's foreign minister nor Xi joined Putin in recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk, whose protection served as a pretext for the invasion.

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In the end, rather than deepening any alliance between Russia and China, Ukraine may wind up driving a wedge between the US's two biggest competitors.

For Xi, Russia is more of a liability than an asset, Schwartz says.

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To read more from @Schwartzesque about China’s complicated situation, follow @thisisinsider. ⬇️

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