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Mar 11 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The tycoon whose big short bet on nickel helped trigger a historic spike in prices doesn't want to reduce his position 🪙

LME was forced to halt nickel trading on Tuesday, and it won't restart until at least next week. It'll be interesting when it does

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Nickel had a crazy week

The London Metal Exchange suspended trading in nickel on Tuesday morning after this dramatic price spike 👇

A Chinese tycoon built a massive short position in nickel futures, then it was squeezed

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Who is the ‘Big Shot,’ aka Xiang Guangda, behind nickel’s bad short?

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The London Metal Exchange has begun an unusual process in which it wants to match longs and shorts at agreed prices, in order to reduce outstanding positions and minimize the risk of a greater squeeze to come

Xiang has to decide how much of his short position to exit
The London Metal Exchange defended its decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel deals earlier this week when prices doubled within hours, saying the market had become disorderly, with prices not reflecting the physical market

reuters.com/article/lme-ni…
The London Metal Exchange's (LME) chief executive called for it to have more powers to intervene, after it was forced to halt nickel trading for the first time since 1988 when prices spiralled out of control

straitstimes.com/business/compa…
👀

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 12
South Korea’s Jeju island is a net-zero cautionary tale 🇰🇷🌳

A decade ago, it set a goal to become independent of fossil fuels by 2030

But halfway through, Jeju is way behind. Emissions rose and it isn’t producing enough clean energy

@HEESU_LEE

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
But there may be at least as much to learn from failure as from success 💡

These are Jeju’s two biggest sources of rising CO2 emissions:

1) Gasoline-powered vehicles, which accounted for nearly 37% in 2019

2) Fossil fuel-based power generation, which contributed 26%
To tackle gasoline vehicles, Jeju island encouraged EV adoption and more sources of renewable power. The government provided subsidies and tax breaks

It assumed that an increase in both would crowd out traditional cars and fuel. It hasn’t, and gas-powered cars has increased 🚗
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 11
Uranium prices surged the highest since the 2011 Fukushima disaster on Russia supply concerns
📈☢️

Prices rose to $59.75/lbs, highest since March 2011, when meltdowns at Fukushima sent shockwaves through the nuclear industry and dashed uranium demand

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The White House is considering sanctions on Russia’s state-owned atomic energy company, Rosatom, intensifying concerns over disruptions to uranium exports from Russia

Rosatom and its subsidiaries account for more than 35% of global uranium enrichment

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
By coincidence, it is the 11th anniversary of the Fukushima crisis

english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/5…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 10
Europe's plan to quit Russian natural gas is setting up a global fight for LNG 🇪🇺🥊

The EU aims to boost LNG imports by as much as 37 million tons this year (!), far outstripping supply

Asia and Europe will battle for spare LNG cargoes like never before

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
So what does this mean? Higher spot prices for longer

“Europe will need to bid these cargoes away from Asia,” said Nikos Tsafos of CSIS. “But what does a bidding war look like when spot prices are already above $50? I have no idea.”
To be sure, Europe's plan to quit Russian natural gas is full of obstacles

Its import terminals are working near max-capacity, and it will require additional FSRUs to take a large jump in deliveries

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 9
European natural gas slumps as the bloc's government remains reluctant to sanction Russian supplies 📉📉

🇪🇺 Benchmark futures fell as much as 21%. But they're still way more expensive than normal
🇷🇺 Russian shipments are currently running as normal

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Looks like traders arent too worried about this...

But watch out for Asian demand…

🇯🇵 Japan LNG inventories held by utilities slumped to the lowest level since Dec 2020. They may be eager to snatch up more cargoes to refill storage
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 8
China is considering to buy stakes in Russian energy companies and assets 🇨🇳💰🇷🇺

👋 The move comes as Big Oil exits Russian oil & gas projects due to Ukraine war
🛢️ Any Chinese investment is to boost energy imports, and not a show of support for the war

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Japanese officials have warned that if they exit their Russian investments, then countries like China will just snatch them up

Sanctions will be pointless if Japan exits projects only for another country to take its place, said Trade Minister Hagiuda

bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/…
Beijing is in talks with its state-owned firms, including CNPC and Sinopec, on any opportunities to invest in Russia

Sources said that any deal would be to bolster China’s energy security, not as a show of support for Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 7
Belgium should “keep an open mind” about extending the life of nuclear reactors due to the energy crisis, its energy minister said 🇧🇪☢️

This shows a shift for Belgium, which had targeted to phase out nuclear by 2025

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent fuel prices surging
Without nuclear, Belgium would likely be forced to depend on more natural gas…

👀
Countries including South Korea are reassessing nuclear phaseout plans amid sky-high fossil fuel costs and plans to curb emissions
Read 4 tweets

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