Ho-fung Hung Profile picture
Mar 12, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6 There is still a lot of talk about Russia shifting to the yuan so the sanction will only advance international use and status of the yuan vis-a-vis USD. This is seriously misplaced..
2/6 Russia-China trade did undergo de-dollarization over the last decade, but mostly through switching to euro. Russia has been running trade deficit with China (who doesn't?). Basically Russia uses the euro they earns in selling stuffs to Europe to pay for China imports..
3/6 In 2020 80+ % of Russia-China trade was settled in euro (carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/850…). If Russia-China trade shifts to yuan under the sanction now, it means Russia has to come up with the yuan to pay for its trade deficit with China...
4/6 Russia can get yuan thru the ruble-yuan swap line, using the now worthless ruble in exchange for yuan, and than use the yuan to pay for its trade deficit with China. In the end, it is little more than China giving out supplies to Russia for free as a disaster relief.
5/6 or Russia can absorb yuan by letting Chinese entities buy Russian assets and pay in yuan, and then use the yuan to pay for Chinese supplies. In such case, it is like using stakes in Russian property/companies in exchange for Chinese relief.
6/6 In any of the scenarios, it won't advance yuan's international use, which requires two countries not involving China settle their transaction in yuan.
Again, Russian export to China (mostly energy) has been de-dollarized, by shifting to the euro and little else up to the war. Image

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More from @hofunghung

Mar 2, 2024
many tried to explain why USD hegemony stays on. a bigger puzzle is perhaps why the US has not decayed like 17th-C Spain while it controled the world money -- American silver. Hamilton, Vilar, Keynes detailed how Spain's control of world money actually led to its decline.. 1/7

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while sitting on pile of silver from the mysticized silver mountain in Potosi, Spainish elite used the American silver to purchase luxury and manufactured goods from other countries; idle rentiers dominated & drowned out productive & entrepreneurial class... 2/7 Image
long inflation caused by silver influx eroded fixed rent /interest income of the rentier class. illusion of wealth made the Spanish state/elite borrowed excessively. degeneration of Spainish state and elite ensued, as epitomized by Don Quixote-an illusional, failing elite.. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 2, 2023
a brilliant paper arguing the USD hegemony is grounded on US geopolitical power, as 3/4 of safe USD assets are held by govts with military tie to the US. hence weaponizing USD via sanctions won't jeopardize USD hegemony. the problem of this analysis is...🧵

gov't with military ties with US are defined by formal alliance pact including countries that are actually tyring to drfit away from the US, like Argentina and Brazil. these alliances won't prevent them from joining de-dollarization attempt when real alternvatives emerge...
using an in-progress index based on US troops presence and US arms purchase, i generate this chart of share of USD assets held by the top 20 geopolitical dependents of the US. ...
Read 11 tweets
May 14, 2023
revisiting 16th-c Confucianism via 20th-c New Confucianist reconstruction from Mou Tsung-san to Tu Weiming etc. many of them are more interested in the Wang Yangming school of Confucianism, which developed anti-authoritarian and anti-collectivist thoughts & actions.. 🧵 Image
Tu's dissertation is on WYM, whose theory on union of knowledge & practice, populist position on "everyone can be sages" thru individual reflexivity without instruction of estabished authorities made many compare him to Martin Luther and liberal philosophers in Europe.... ImageImage
his emphasis on reflexive individuals as ones embedded in social relations/duties and in tension with those relations/duties instead of atomic individuals a al robinson crusoe makes his thoughts more of an embedded individualism or embedded liberalism...
Read 11 tweets
Apr 30, 2023
in the late 1970s when the Khmer Rouge's atrocity became obvious, he attacked the refugees for making stuffs up to discredit the revolutionary regime to please western journalists and officials hostile to comrade Pol Pot. it is beyond delusional.
exposing and critiquing police brutality is imp and respectable, but it doesn't mean you have to become the apologists of drug cartels, human traffickers, and gang rapists. frustrating that so many on the left these days see the two as the same thing.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20, 2023
//the Bank of Russia...explains that Russian exporters and importers suffer from currency risks when settling their trade in the non-convertible and volatile renminbi. ...there are not enough derivatives for traders to hedge the Chinese currency.// asiatimes.com/2023/04/rmb-ba…
//The central bank says Russia has been selling renminbi since the beginning of this year.... in exchange for Western currencies.//
//On April 5, reporters asked Dmitry Tulin, the first deputy governor of the Bank of Russia, why Russia had dumped yuan in February and March. He blamed Beijing for refusing to allow Russian companies and individuals to hold renminbi in cash.//
Read 4 tweets
Apr 18, 2023
not sure if any idiots i blocked here are personas created by these agents. if so their works are pretty lousy. justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/3…
the evidence presented in the complaint is just amazing. even including photos of the agents at work in the midst of harrassing one particular victim online (shown in the redacted screen)?? how do they get the photo? Image
another photo of the agent at work. judging from the beer cans we can tell the work is really intense Image
Read 4 tweets

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