Thread by @itskhoki

I am bewildered by the arguments I occasionally hear from my European colleagues and friends, including that putin needs a “face-saving exit so he can gracefully resign” and that the costs of shutting down gas supplies from Russia are too high. 1/n

I applaud the work of @ben_moll and co-authors to quantify the costs of gas supply shut down and share the moral arguments in tweets by @HannoLustig and @BachmannRudi against financing putin’s war in Ukraine. 2/n

Nonetheless, I think this misses the main argument. One needs to think of the possible tree of events, and consider the branches that lead to a complete catastrophe of a much larger escalation of military action in Europe. 3/n

Economic costs to Europe in those circumstances would be immeasurably higher than any costs from gas supply shut down now. 4/n

The goal of policy should be to minimize the possibility of such catastrophic events. The longer the war in Ukraine proceeds, the greater the possibility of further escalation beyond Ukraine. Thus, a regime of extreme economic pressure on putin is necessary immediately. 5/n

While putin may have military resources, it is important to keep in mind that his position is extremely weak in light of his military failures in Ukraine and the economic collapse in Russia. He is a liability to everybody in Russia, and Russian “elites” are well aware of it. 6/n

This war is putin’s legacy, there is no face-saving exit for him. However, the absolute majority among Russian “elites” do not want to live in a mixture of Soviet Union and North Korea which Russia will turn into if the war carries on. 7/n

Extreme economic pressure from sanctions and embargo will act to further coordinate the dissenting Russian “elites”. It is crucial to emphasize that these sanctions are in place until Russia can provide credible assurances of no further aggression in Ukraine or elsewhere. 8/n

It is crucial to avoid direct military conflict of western countries with Russia, which is what putin aspires to (including possible use of nuclear weapons, as casually discussed on Russian TV), as this is his only way to improve his otherwise very weak bargaining position. 9/n

It is essential to acknowledge that this is the only logical continuation if the war carries on, there is no other endgame. 10/n

It is also crucial to engage China to isolate putin’s regime. China has arguably a lot to lose from economic turmoil from further escalation of the war in Europe. n/n