Thread by @KhalidPayenda

One last thread on the #DAB assets and then I’ll shut up.

Discussions on unfreezing DAB assets is a distraction from the real economic problems facing the country. While a limited release of the reserves helps the banking sector and households in addressing liquidity and the economy with easing US$ liquidity issues in the short run, and

& should resume immediately under credible international third party monitoring (TPM), it is NOT a cure all medicine to all economic woes, as some assume. It also absolves the regime of its responsibilities of economic management and creating a safe & conducive environment for

citizens and investors to “live and invest in Afghanistan”. People are starving on their watch - not the previous “corrupt” government’s. Have those who try to shut down any meaningful conversation on conditions under which DAB funds be released (i.e., independence from regime,

credible TPM, upholding current regulations and repatriation of cadres) with accusations of “starving Afghans” thought their proposals through? In a country where only 15 % of population has a bank account, how will the rest of the population benefit from release of the funds?

Read that with the context that the troubled banking sector that has an increasing number of non performing loans (because many businesses have effectively defaulted), how will the banks honor all their deposits when they cannot recover loans?

What about the hundreds of thousands of civil servants (part of the 15% with bank accounts) who are in a limbo and don’t know whether they still have a job and have not been paid in months? how will the release of funds help the tens of thousands of local employees & consultants

that worked for donor projects that were shut down overnight? In absence of credible TPM, how will the interbank transactions be settled in a transparent manner? What’s the guarantee that a few large depositors with influence not withdraw all the money and

ordinary men and women be deprived of their meager savings? In absence of a fully independent DAB and TPM, how will you ensure that the accumulation of new reserves (from the influx of humanitarian aid and exchange to Afghan and issuance of new Afghani bank notes - this will soon

be needed) are not directed to finance illicit activities? How will releasing DAB assets help in creating jobs or economic opportunities for millions without a livelihood (can’t use the funds to finance development as some wrongly assume)? Especially with risk of capital flight?

Assuming all the funds are released and used for development (bad idea) and/or humanitarian efforts (very very bad idea) what would you do in a few months when the funds are exhausted? How will you control a depreciating Afghani without DAB reserves to back the currency?

If it all goes wrong and the funds are misused and misdirected, how will you respond to the current and future generations of Afghans about their national assets?

To summarize: 1-release limited DAB funds conditioned upon (above stated) prerequisites - do it soon; 2-the regime (& advocates) should focus on addressing fundamental economic issues & not shrug off responsibility by tying everything to DAB assets - it’s does not explain all

current economic problems; and 3- the international community shares the blame - it must revamp its humanitarian plus activities. They partly caused the chaos with abrupt shut off of $8bn annual aid sending the economy on a downward spiral. — ends —