Thread by @calleymeans

🧠Last November, @COMPASSPathway announced Phase IIb results.

📉The result? $CMPS is down 75%.

🤔Why? The adverse events reported have been completely misread by the market.

It is the clearest risk/reward stock opportunity I've seen.

Here's why:

I want to start by saying this topic could not be more serious.

The second leading cause of death for Americans under 34 is suicide

It is imperative that we interpret $CMPS data correctly, especially if it suggests we can *reverse* the root causes of depression for the 1st time

(1) WHAT WAS REPORTED:

In early November, @COMPASSPathway reported historic findings:

For the first time, a therapy was able to show *remission* of Treatment Resistant Depression (TRD)...

ir.compasspathways.com/news-releases/…

(1...) Let's break that down: @COMPASSPathway performed a study on a population that *could not relieve* their depression with at least two prior pharmaceutical interventions.

With *one treatment* of the $CMPS 25mg solution, 24% of this treatment-resistant saw remission.

(1...) Dr. David J Hellerstein MD, Principal Investigator at Columbia University: "In this groundbreaking study, a single dose of psilocybin... generated a rapid response that lasted up to 12 weeks. Remission rates appear to be higher than seen in traditional medication studies."

(1...) Previous tests on psilocybin and follow-up reports from the CMPS Phase IIb results show remarkable results on the durability of the treatment.

compasspathways.com/further-positi…

(2) WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK...

As one might expect, #CMPS popped 30% in pre-market trading on release of the IIb news.

But something odd happened when trading began: the stock ended the day down 30% (a 60% total swing).

Today, $CMPS is down 75% from its high in early Nov

(3) WHY DID THIS SEEMINGLY POSITIVE RESULTS TRIGGER SUCH A DROP?

Analysts grabbed onto to the fact that out of 233 participants, 12 people (5.1%) experienced adverse events such as suicidal ideation.

🚨There are 3 reasons this adverse event data is being mis-interpreted🚨

(3a) First, the 233 study among a *highly depressed and suicidal* group of people. In fact, 30% of people labeled with treatment resistant depression (the study's cohort) attempt suicide.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29665520/

(3a...) Compass had to report any suicidal ideation during a several month period - whether that was related to the study or not...

(3b) Second, tje *point* of psychedelic therapy is to work through the the root cause of what is causing the patient's depression, and reframe these events in your brain

If the patient is suicidal, that would very likely come up in treatment (and be marked as an adverse event)

(3b...) Almost all studies of psilocybin have been done on at-risk populations (terminally ill, abuse survivors, soldiers with PTSD), and study after study show the compound helps these populations *reframe* their darkest narratives *with positive results* and *low side effects*

(3b...) It is not surprising to see that some patients in a highly suicidal population worked through suicidal ideations in a therapy intended to get to the root cause of their trauma...

(3b...) A friend was crippled by depression and suicidal thoughts, and working through this was a focal point of his psychedelic therapy.

He tells me if was the most positive experience of his life.

This experience is not unique.

(3c) Third, the adverse event percentage Is significantly lower than studies on other treatments for depression such as SSRI's.

In fact SSRI's have been shown to actually increase suicidal ideation in certain populations (including teens).

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

This is serious stuff.

Depression and suicide are crises in this country.

So it is imperative we imperative that we interpret studies from this emerging field correctly...

Particularly when these compounds are so disruptive to existing pharma interests...

I have no doubt the real story of these studies will come out... The science is too compelling.

I think that will transform society for the better.

I also think it is a reason $CMPS is a misunderstood stock.