Putin's today's long speech is remarkable by showing that he now lives in the world of his own.
Until the late 1940s, Stalin worked regularly w/ the Politiburo; even when his power, at the end of his rule, was immense he would still see his "minions" almost every evening.
Plus, he would receive foreign delegations (eg Djilas). Plus, speak at Party events.
But Putin clearly does not see nor talk to anyone. Gives orders to the govt the way one give orders to somebody he has hired to clean the house (or worse).
Speaks of people who make money in RUS, but keep it abroad as traitors--presumably forgetting that it applies to himself and all those around him.
Speaks of great infrastructural plans forgetting how little was done under much better conditions.
Speaks vaguely of great import substitution opportunities and how less exports is good b/c more goods will remain within the country.
People who had to listen to him and get his marching orders from him must have felt entirely bewildered.
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“You know,” he mused, “in Soviet days most of us were really quite happy with a dacha, a colour TV and access to special shops with some western goods, and holidays in Sochi. We were perfectly comfortable, and we only compared ourselves with the rest of the population,
not with the western elites. “Now today, of course, the siloviki like their western luxuries, but I don’t know if all this colossal wealth is making them happier or if money itself is the most important thing for them.
I think one reason they steal on such a scale is that they see themselves as representatives of the state and they feel that to be any poorer than a bunch of businessmen would be a humiliation, even a sort of insult to the state.
Russian frozen assets (state and private) are probably over $1/2 trillion, and possibly ~$600-700 billion. Now, a fair guess is that money will never be seen by Russia again, no more than Iranian money was seen. It represents a coerced transfer of wealth of unheard of proportions
It was the outcome of dilettantism on the Russian part since they had a 2-month warning that the "mother of all sanctions" is coming.
But how big is that loss in relative terms? It is equal to almost 1/3 of Russia's annual GDP.
More interestingly, it is about equal to US annual defense budget. So, probably in the first time in history one side has decided to cover the defense budget of the other side with which it is likely to go into a conflict, and perhaps even war.
We do not know what would be the outcome of this war, but we know that (unless we are all die in a nuclear war), Russia faces a significant shock to its GDP and also a very high inflation.
Whether that inflation would be 50%, 100% or 5,000% (on a yearly basis) we do not know, but Russia has many historical experiences with hyperinflation.
Raging hyperinflation between 1917 and 1922 when the gold-based chervonets was introduced as part of the NEP.
Preobrazhensky called the ability of the govt to print money, "the machine-gun in the hands of the proletariat."
Stalin was very conservative in fiscal and monetary matters.
So were Khrushchev and Brezhnev.
But with "transition" inflation came back.
Section 5.4 in "Capitalism, Alone" is called:
"The Two Scenarios: War and Peace"
The melancholy thought is that capitalism at its previous highest point of global spread and power generated the most devastating conflict in history up to that time; and there is a more than negligible chance that similar internal mechanisms might lead to another such conflict.
Under this gloomy scenario global capitalism would be both a cause of devastation and the savior of civilization. In other words, Einstein’s supposed quip that the Fourth World War would be fought with rocks would not be proven true.
We still do not know what's the political objective of the war. If you read Putin's yesterday speech it is never said clearly. There are at least 4 possible interpretations:
1 "Liberate" the newly recognized republics within their oblast borders. But then why attack the whole country?
2 "Denazify" Ukraine. This is a code word for regime-change. Impose a new govt.
3 "Our objective is freedom to let anyone decide" implies referendums
that may split UKR into a part that goes to RUS and one that stays.
4 But then P. says, we should be friends even "across borders". So should there be a pro-RUS govt in the rump Ukraine?
(Long thread)
The reasons why and how Balkan countries enter NATO are never discussed in the Western press. Even their membership is not mentioned.
Here are the reasons.
Montenegro has been run for 35y by the same (let's be polite) autocrat.He was first a Serbian nationalist but
in the past 20y has developed great affinity for democracy & the USA. Some people say that the affinity is due to his being involved in the smuggling of cigarettes and perhaps even of some more serious Colombian wares. Good businessman he has became very rich. If he does not do
what the US tells him to, he might end like Noriega or the former president of Honduras who was just arrested, by the USA, on similar charges, two days ago. So MNE president wants to be nice and join NATO. Much better to go to fancy conferences than to be in jail.