Thread by @Rugby4Cast

We've done some analysis on the effects on cards in rugby matches, and based on last week this seems like a good moment to share a thread ...

#GuinnessSixNations #RugbyUnited

Based on our sample size of around 300 or so matches with cards in it, we found that a card 'costs' the home side around 0.14 points per minute, and the away side around double that, at 0.28 points per minute.

So a yellow card would cost a home side about 1.5 points, or half a penalty, with the away side around 3 points, or a full penalty.

Red cards are clearly more dependent on the time of the card, with cards earlier in the game costing the side more.

Last weekend - England received a red card at 1 minute and played 79 minutes with 14 men.

As the home side we estimate that this might have cost them around 11 points (79 * 0.14 = 11.06).

This moved the prediction from the pre match of Ireland by 1, to Ireland by 12.

There's also good evidence to suggest that it is likely not be a linear relationship between time and points scored, with sides progressively losing more points the longer they play with reduced numbers.

#GuinnessSixNations #RugbyUnited

Let us know your thoughts!

Based on the interest this thread is getting, we'll look into increasing the sample size of the analysis, and also trying to answer some of the great questions we've been asked.

Watch this space!