Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 17, 2022 36 tweets 12 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
How to sabotage Russian war efforts?

There are ways to sabotage Russian war capacities by focusing on its three major bottlenecks: demographic, economic & institutional. Let's start with demography. Russian started this war suffering from the shortage of young draftable males🧵 Image
That's a very underrated fact. Many argue that the demographic pressure of growing population (Africa, Middle East) increases a risk of war/revolution. But Russia doesn't have this pressure. Compare it's demographic pyramid with Syria: Russia's quickly depopulating. It grew old ImageImage
In fact, Russian-Ukrainian war is may be the first major war between two quickly depopulating nations. For this reason it can't be directly compared to Iran-Iraq or other conventional wars between relatively big but young powers. Russia, Ukraine are both old. Few youngsters there Image
Russian performance in this war will be different from the past. Yes, before WWII Russia would fight real wars all the time. But back then Russia was younger. Its demographic pyramid of 1927 looks more like Syria than like modern Russia ImageImage
Today an average age in Russia 40 years. In 1914 in the age of huge families and no family planning it was 16 years old. Russia was a country of adolescents much like Black Africa is today. This demographic pressure might explain excesses of revolution and civil war of 1917-1921 Image
Before the revolution birth control was virtually unknown, almost all of Russian population rural, people were subsistence farmers and their families tend to be very big. Thus Russia had a constant excess of youth which its emperors could utilise for their imperial delusions Image
XX century put end to this. Death toll of collectivisation, purges, and the WWII was devastating. Consider this photo of public street dances in late 1940s. Girls are dancing together, cuz boys are dead. From the high school class of 1941 only 3% were alive by the end of the war Image
Even more important factors were industrialisation and urbanisation. In 1900 majority were substinence farmers living in their own houses. By 1960s they were waged workers living in small urban dorms. Both mom and dad had to work, birth control was available. Fertility dropped
That's what believers in based invincible Russia which always wins miss completely. Back then Russia was a country with Syria-style population pyramid and produced enough young males to sacrifice in endless conflicts. Young men were not a bottleneck. Now they are Image
That partially explains why Putin attacked Ukraine with such a small army and didn't immediately start mobilisation. There are not so many males to mobilise in the first place. Meanwhile Ukrainian-published videos of captured conscripts will damage the Putin's spring draft a lot Image
Now who fights in Putin's army? Well, that's pretty easy to answer. Most of file and rank of the Russian army are either current or former conscripts. They are young guys from small towns and usually underprivileged background. Richer, more privileged ones would dodge the draft Image
In a good Moscow school where I studied almost everyone dodged the draft. Those who were drafted were considered very unlucky or not that smart. Nobody would ever view those going to the army with respect. Draft was a misfortune, a bad accident, you should avoid Image
Those who get into the army are usually from poor families & small towns. Because richer/smarter/educated ones dodge it. Then these conscripts who don't know their rights will be persuaded, pressured or just forced to sign a contract and become контрактники professional soldier Image
So in the social dimension, Russian army is the army of poor guys from small towns. Their recruitment was conducted either by sheer force (призывники) or by a certain combination of force and persuasion (контрактники). Sometimes they just force conscripts to sign the contract Image
In the ethnic dimension it's even more interesting than that. With ethnic Russians quickly depopulating, minorities provide disproportionally high share of young draftable males. And I'm not talking about Kadyrov's troops
Chechnya is a vassal kingdom of Kadyrov in personal union with Russia. It's not an integral part of Russia and its troops are not part of Russian army.Chechen conscript don't go to Russian army, they go to its "Chechen regiments" which are led by and personally loyal to Kadyrov Image
Once again - Kadyrov's troops can have whatever BS bureaucratic labels - "army", "police", "FSB", etc. But being classified as parts of these branches of Russian regulars they're obedient only to their warlord. I described it here in more detailed way
I'm talking about normal Russian regulars. While Chechen conscripts go to "Russian regiments quartered in Chechnya" = private army of Kadyrov, Dagestani, Ingush, Kabarda and other minority conscripts go to regular Russian army and comprise every growing part of it
Consider this random list of wounded Russian soldiers in a hospital in Rostov Oblast (=wounded in Ukraine). Dagestani names comprise about a half of the list. Russian army is quickly becoming the army of minorities Image
Furthermore, I'm now getting a lot of messages from Central Asians whom authorities try to persuade/force into the army. It's not some sort of ideological decision. In a quickly depopulating country you have no choice but to impress immigrants there to keep the war going Image
Let's sum up. In the past, Russia launched huge continental wars and finished them at whatever cost. But it could pay this cost because in a country of huge peasant families and constant excess of youth they could easily sacrifice that youth for the sake of imperial grandeur Image
Now Russia is a low fertility depopulating country which accidentally started a major war. It didn't plan a war, it planned a nice and easy occupation. Much of early Russian losses are explained by Russian columns simply entering into the cities and being immediately destroyed
Unlike any major war Russia launched before, now it will have to proceed with a shortage of youth. Young males are a major bottleneck now. That's why Russian regular army is much less Russian than in any previous epoch since 16th c. It's an army of minorities & provincial poor Image
Hence policy recommendation. Open the green corridor. Many Russian soldiers would actively look for the ways out but they don't want to sit in Ukrainian prison СИЗО which happens if they just surrender. So, open the corridor abroad to any poor warm country Image
Tourist industry of Turkey, Egypt, etc is now suffering for the lack of Russian tourists. Thus:

1. Rent cheap hostels, cheap hotels, whatever
2. Ship their those who surrendered till the end of the war. Give them bed + food
3. Take photos with them there, distribute in Telegram Image
That would have huge impact on the troops morale which you probably underestimate it. Human behaviour is much more situation specific than we'd like to admit. Russian soldiers stood to death at Borodino but they deserted away en masse in France. Cuz they had the way out Image
We very much overestimate human (and our own) "integrity" and "consistency". In fact our behaviour is very situation specific and depends on circumstances. We do what we like (and can do) and then make up justifications why this was right, limited only by our verbal intelligence
NB it shouldn't be a "good" way out. It shouldn't be a way out with clear understanding what to do next and other irrelevant BS. Situation this guys are facing looks like this. The way out shouldn't be perfect, it just has to exist and they should know it does
Furthermore, apart from bad & food for surrender give them cash for destroying the equipment and documenting it. Like you put the wrong oil to the truck engine and destroyed it? 2 thousand bucks. 2% of active hustlers are enough to inflict enormous damage on the fighting capacity Image
We also underestimate how many of our social mechanisms work only because of mutual trust. Only because almost nobody of those engaged will seek to disrupt them for its own sake. 2% of saboteurs is very, very much and inflicts enormous damage. Equipment destroyed, trust destroyed
Ofc you can invest money into destroying Russian army. That works. But paying Russian soldiers to destroy Russian army is way more cost-effective. They know how to do it, also they're poor and value money more. Besides, many of them have very low motivation
Additional benefit would be: if desertion from the Russian army increases, Russian commandment will be much more reluctant to send any low morale (=almost any) troops to Ukraine. If you know significant number defect to the enemy, you vet them harder and recruit less soldiers
Many imagine Russian army being proud, exhilarated and very well respected. Not quite. Russian army has no respect at all. Just look how this TV host yells on a veteran who suggests making a minute of silence for "our boys in Ukraine"
You can read a more detailed account of Russian army with mafia racketeering Syrian veterans and nuclear rockets bases, with conscripts being forced into gay prostitution here

Russian fighting capacity will hugely deteriorate if you give a way out to the closest warm countries with bed, food, and cash payments for proven sabotage. Done ASAP that would be very detrimental for Russian fighting capacity, manpower being its major bottleneck. End of 🧵
I'm gonna store my old threads and probably other texts here kamilkazani.substack.com

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More from @kamilkazani

Dec 2
1. Russia makes more weaponry than its enemies. If nothing is done about its military production, Russia will win this war

2. Establishing the new political rule:

Always bet against the US allies

3. With the absolutely destructive effect on the US policy and standing in Asia
4. The Russian victory in Ukraine will radically devalue the worth of the US alliance in the eyes of the world

5. Yes, America lost asymmetric wars before. But this is the first time, it will be defeated in the symmetric warfare

6. Its standing will be adjusted accordingly
7. Yes, never bet against the US rule will stand for a while (don't declare the war, don't attack the US soil)

8. But now it will be supplemented with always bet against the US allies

9. Promises, guarantees and commitments are not worth much. America is weak -> backs off easily
Read 24 tweets
Nov 14
1. Russian-Ukrainian war is mostly an artillery war

2. Russian artillery production fully relies upon a few dozen GFM Steyr (Austria) radial forging machines

3. Which rely upon the continuous supply of expendables from the original producer

It is *the* bottleneck. Target it
The funny thing with the GFM Steyr is that it is not even a large business. In 2021, its revenue was estimated at only 32,5 million euros. In 2022, it rose to 69,8 million (for obvious reasons). Yet, the Russian artillery industry is critically dependent upon this single company
First, the existing park of GFM Steyr machines requires a steady supply of parts and expendables to keep them running. Consider this one single SXP-55 radial forging machine operating at the Motovilikha Plants, a major artillery & MLRS producer
Read 9 tweets
Nov 4
There was never an "Islamic State of the Mamluks of Egypt". You just made it up

First, there was a Turkic State of the Turkic Mamluks

Then, there was a Circassian State of the Circassian Mamluks

In 1517, the King of Rome smashed Circassians and annexed Egypt into his empire
13-14th cc. - the Turkic State
14-16th cc. - the Circassian State
1517 - the Roman Conquest

Neither political realities, nor the political imagination of pre-modern polities had anything to do with an idea of nation state. Which was not even a thing before the French Revolution
Pre-history of pretty much any nation state is fictitious and largely made up. We describe very bizarre (from a modern standpoint) political orders and imaginations in a way they would make for a teleological nation state narrative

Purely political, nothing to do with reality
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2
75 years since the first partition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not over. Based on the last four weeks , we can only expect it to escalate, resulting in more mutual dehumanisation, more reciprocal violence, more of the previously uninvolved joining it on either side 🧵 Image
What kind of conflict it is?

Contrary to the popular opinion, this is not a war of religion. Religious or eschatological interpretations too often obfuscate the underlying reason of why it all happens


This is and has always been a territorial conflict Image
You will not understand dynamics of either the Arab-Jewish or Muslim-Jewish relations without realising the territorial nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Territorial conflict generates ideological justifications

Land is the base, ideology is the superstructure Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 1
Loved this @LindseyGrahamSC interview

It shows why and how a Just War is logically equivalent to the Total War

1. As we fight a just war
2. Against the total evil
3. The war must have no limits, nor boundaries

It must be necessarily total, until the full annihilation
Now, how often do we fight a Just War?

We always do

(as no side ever will say it fights an unjust one)

Consequently, neither of our wars can have limits or boundaries. The Just War argument logically excludes a possibility of limiting the war-related violence Image
And vice versa, if we wage a total war of the unlimited violence, the enemy must be also total, absolute

That is a Nazi

Consequently, mass indiscriminate killing of civilians will be almost invariably justified with the WWII references & allusions

Read 4 tweets
Oct 30
For context:

In the Russian Empire, Jews were not normally allowed to live east of the Pale of Settlement (red). While few privileged categories like rich merchants were allowed to settle in Russia proper, the absolute majority was locked to Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Lithuania
This however, applied only to the Western, Ashkenazi Jews

Bukhara Jews of modern Uzbekistan, Karaites of Crimea or foreign "Oriental" Jews were free from such limitations and could settle anywhere

Many Ashkenazi bought Ottoman passports specifically for this purpose Image
"My father was a Turkish subject and, therefore, I am a descendant of Janissaries. Who spared neither women, nor children, nor the underground millionaires"

has different meaning than it seems. It refers to the practice of buying the Ottoman passports for freedom of travel Image
Read 6 tweets

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