Thread by @jradoff

🧵 1/19 What do Russians believe?

An exploration of my WhatsApp talks via @squad3o3 with Russians about #UkraineRussiaWar

As always, thanks to @dsmart @PeterCorless @Osinttechnical @int_osic @WarintheFuture @SpencerGuard @antoniogm and all others working to educate and inform.

2/19 The conversation starter works. It is authentic. It is curious. People do respond at a frequency I'd never have expected.

(This is in contrast this with the original prompt that told them they are being lied to, which mostly provoked explitives)

3/19 Note that all of the observations I share here are from different people, and represent different themes. There's no single overriding or generic theme, although I've encountered some things multiple times. Read on to understand more.

4/19 One person sent me this image, and proceeded to tell me how Ukraine people were getting what they deserved, and that they're full of fascists. He told me he lived near the border and hated Ukrainians.

5/19 This person went on to make some homophobic statements about Europe (and Norway in particular...?!)

6/19 However, most people I've interacted with are not quite so hardened and have engaged in civil conversations.

Less encouraging: what they have to say

(And of course, I know that this is #NotAllRussians: and understand if those with antiwar sentiments are afraid to speak)

7/19 The theme of "Ukraine was working on a nuclear weapon" has come up multiple times and seems to be something people in Russia believe.

They explain that I'd be worried if Canada or Mexico aligned with Russia and had nukes.

8/19 The belief in pervasive fascism. They bring up Azov, which as far as I can tell are bonafide scumbags--but believe they're representative of the government.

One man told me that his nephew living in Mariupol was more worried about "fascists" than the the Russian shelling.

9/19 The belief that sanctions won't be too harmful, that Europe & USA will keep buying their oil, that Russia can feed itself and while they'll have a period of suffering... Russians are strong, they've suffered before, and they'll just get through it.

10/19 The belief that the economic sanctions aren't really harming everyday people. One person said they "celebrated when McDonalds left the country."

11/19 The belief that Ukraine is not a separate country, and was "bought" by NATO.

12/19 The belief that war is justified.

One lady claimed that "80% of Russians support Putin"

13/19 An interesting fact is that nobody seems surprised by the extent of Russian military losses thus far.

They know that there are 10,000+ soldier deaths.

The people I spoke to thought this was an acceptable loss.

They express a willingness to fight to bitter end

14/19 A man told me he visited Crimea recently, and said it was flourishing under Russian rule and that Ukraine was bombing it and bombing Donbas. He thought a military response to was thus justified.

15/19 A person who said they lived near the border, hated Ukrainians, and shared quite a few colorful comments about what the people there should do with their genitals

16/19 The belief that President Biden is stoking the conflict to earn votes in the next election.

17/19 The belief that Western governments, the USA in particular, are lying to us about the "truth" of Ukraine.

18/19 A lady who gave me "history lesson" on how Ukraine = Russia. She supported the war.

This was a person who had also spent time living the USA, and knew English. We switched from my Google translate of Russia into English at one point.

She though dialog was valuable. Hope?

19/19 That's it for now. I'm learning. What I want to learn more of is: what do people find persuasive?

We need to rapidly iterate techniques and methods.

What's the most encouraging conversation you've had?