Thread by @kamilkazani

Is World War Z popular in Russia?

80 000 ppl attended Z-rally in Moscow. Midwits compared its size with smaller anti-war protests and concluded it's a proof of mass Z-enthusiasm. Midwits are unable to comprehend two factors that rule this world: leverage and incentives 🧵

Journalist is asking Z-attendees "Friends, wanna give a small comment - what does this day mean for you?" They turn away in silence. He insists - they shake their heads and refuse to answer. Finally he asks - why did you come? Response "They pushed us into a bus and brought here"

When looking at Z-rallies in Russia you need to understand they're all 100% staged. Putin suppresses any independent political action and won't allow any protest either pro- or against war. Russian nationalists who are trying to do Z-rallies are arrested and threatened with jail

Kremlin allows only one single type of rallies - the ones which it orchestrated. Putin doesn't want any enthusiasts. That makes sense. If you have convictions, you may support Putin out of conviction. But it also means you may fight Putin out of convictions. You are dangerous

Putin wants only controllable people who do whatever they are told. He promotes such people o all positions of power, which explains poor Russian performance in economy, war, technology, etc. This also explains why he forces unenthusiastic people to political rallies

The main tool for filling pro-government rallies in Russia is сгон бюджетников - pressing the government employees. Government forces university, vocational school ПТУ and other students, school teachers, doctors, civil servants and whoever is on payroll to come to rallies

This for example is a public protest of an independent teachers' union Учитель. In 2014 teachers were forced to participate in demonstrations in support of the Donbass War and annexation of Crimea, and the union protested against it. You can find dozens of such publications

And this is a WhatsApp chat message. Administration forces teachers to collect school kids letters, paintings and posters in support of Z-invasion of Ukraine

This may be the most creative illustration of how they use administrative resource to demonstrate support of Z-campaign. They forced terminally ill children from hospice and their parents to form a Z-letter, supporting the invasion

How does сгон бюджетников work in practice? You command people on government's payroll to come to pick up point. You put them on a bus and drive them to Moscow. When the rally is over, you put them on a bus and drive home. This time they brought people from as far as Smolensk

If you think about it, it makes total sense. These people don't want to come, they are bored, want to go home. They don't do anything stupid, don't network. If you brought real enthusiasts they would network which is super dangerous. You just need to feed them and put onto a bus

Huge size of pro-war rallies is explained by government fully using its leverage and incentives to make people come. They literally order this school to bring 50 people, that civil service office to bring 100 and will fire the boss if he doesn't fill the quota of fake protesters

Yekaterinburg. This woman says she supports the Z-operation (though standing with the poster "for peace"). However, when asked why did she come she responded - they asked us and we came

The only articulate statement in support of the war I've seen so far. She is very happy Putin restored the authority of the country and thinks that display of Russian flags is very patriotic

This is a more typical case:

- Why did you come here?
- They called us
- Did they tell where you are going
- No, they said it will be some event, that's all

Some Z-supporters express even less enthusiasm and run away from cameras. They lool very uncomfortable and probably ashamed of attending the pro war rally

On the other hand, government uses its leverage to discourage people from protesting against the war. Here police breaks the door of Timur Tuhvatullin to arrest. He's accused of "inciting the mass riots"

Police are searching the homes of those who signed an open letter, condemning the Z-war - designer Anna Kantser, activist Gulnaz Ravilova and politician Russian Zinatullin. They had to open the door after police started cutting it

They started a criminal investigation against Liberman, a philosophy teacher of Kazan university who wrote an open letter condemning the war and started collecting students, professors and alumni signatures under it

Tons of people arrested for protesting against the war. All of prisons and detention centres in Moscow and nearby, like Saharovo, are full with people. Now they are treated much harsher than before. Last year they didn't typically beat arrested people, now they do

At this point things didn't get that bad yet. For example this guy who spit on Z letter will be just fined between 30 000 - 50 000 rubles. However, now, after Putin declared that society should "self-clean" such acts might entail far harsher consequences

This sort of explains why we see so much public support of Z-war and so little condemnation of it. Government uses leverage and incentives to promote the former and suppress the latter. This quite cringe propaganda video explains it much better than I could. Watch it. End of 🧵

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