Thread by @BeauTFC

Inbox: "You keep saying nobody predicted the Ukrainians doing this well. I watched you say they could do it if they caught them during the advance."

I don't say, but I assumed their conventional forces would be gone, and they'd be doing it unconventionally.

(Thread)

I didn't feel the need to explicitly say this because nobody had the conventional forces being combat effective a week in, much less three weeks.

Looking back at the videos, I seem much more accurate than I really was.

I'm not aware of a single analyst who called Ukraine's conventional forces running and gunning this long. Not one.

A key part of this is to acknowledge that Russia hasn't gotten to the unconventional phase of this.

(They haven't gotten to the hard part yet)

All Ukraine has to do to win is continue to fight and not lose resolve.

They don't even have to win the battles, just continue to fight.