Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 20, 2022 30 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Military casualties in Ukraine and the end of Russia as we know it

Let's look on the list of killed Russian generals:

Major-General Suhovetsky
Major-General Gerasimov
Major-General Kolesnikov
Major-General Mityayev
Lieutenant-General Mordvichev
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)🧵 Image
Not counting a Chechen general Tushaev, who's an officer of Kadyrov's personal army, Mordvichev was the highest ranked Russian general killed so far. He was a commander of 8th Guard Army of the Southern Military District (=close to Ukraine) Image
Groups of Russian military in social media look like a never-ending list of necrologies. Consider this group of Russian airborne VDV. A captain, a colonel-lieutenant, first lieutenant, general-major are all dead. Notice they're listing only officers, including high ranked ones ImageImageImageImage
Let's go to comments. A deputy commander of an airborne regiment is killed. The first comment with Z avatar:

"My God 😭😭 Are they gonna bring us half of the regiment in coffins. Every day we see regiment 331. Condolescences 🙏 to family and friends. Eternal memory and glory" Image
Notice Z: its author fully supports Z-operation. And yet, she's shocked by the scale of casualties. Apparently even for Z-folk the endless stream of coffins from Ukraine looks disheartening. That's why trucks with dead and wounded Russian soldiers typically show up only at night
Consider that this all is happening in a quickly depopulating country which is growing old. Russia has few youths to send to Ukraine. Russia is now a pensionary country and it's fasicsm is pensionary fascism. Specifically babushka fascism - there aren't so may grampas around Image
They're urgently trying to lure whomever to the army. These are listings on Avito. Avito is a classified advertisements website, kinda Craigslist. There you can find jobs, real estate, cars and whatever for sale, services, etc. They're using every channel to boost recruitment Image
Some advertisments are aimed at imbeciles. A recruitment station is inviting people to join "reserve". They'll be paid only for manouvers: Officers - up to 10 000 roubles for 3 days, sergeants and soldiers - up to 5 000 rubles. Broke idiots who join gonna be sent to Ukraine Image
For 30 days of maneovers they're offering 30-75 000 rubles to officers. Before the war it was 500-1000 usd. Sergeants and soldiers would get 150-400 usd. Russian army is luring the brokes paying them almost nothing. That's important to keep in mind
There are also unconfirmed news that Russia will send to Ukraine adolescents from Юнармия - the Youth Army. That's a patriotic paramilitary organisation. I can't confirm that's true but with situation worsening they might. Sending there conscripts is illegal and they still do Image
Z-war heavily relies on minorities. That's understandable. First of all, there are not so many young Russian males to send, so you need to target minorities with higher fertility. Second, affluent will dodge so you send broke ones. Here you Siberian natives killed in Ukraine
Participation of North Caucasians is even higher than that. This cafe in Dagestan feeds families of Z-soldiers for free. Reportedly, Samilksy District of Dagestan with population of 29868 people sent 500 guys to fight to Ukraine. Soldiers, cops, National Guard whomever
That's quite ironic. Russian nationalist expansion in Ukraine heavily relies on people who are not considered fully human from the Russia perspectives. They are called хачи, чурки, обезьяны (apes) and yet they provide a huge share of recruits for Z-war Image
We must distinguish Chechnya from the rest of Caucasus. Dagestan or Ingush serve in Russian army like everyone else. In military terms they're regulars. But Chechnya is a kingdom of Kadyrov and Chechen army, police, FSB etc are his personal army. Watch this video, feel the vibe
When you look at Kadyrov's forces in Ukraine, you can see how clean they are, how fresh, not tired at all. They're heavily burdened with equipment. Why? Because they're terror and PR troops who try to skip the fighting. They're to police, torture, keep control, not to fight
Compare those Kadyrov's cyborgs with Chechen mujahideen of the First Chechen War. You clearly see a difference. Men who actually fought tried to dress lightly, take less burden and equipment. They were also quite dirty from the fight, unlike shining show-off troops of Kadyrov Image
Strelkov confirms it:

"In Mariupol Chechens didn't enter the battle. Why?

- Chechens are too darling to our commanders
- Someone has to pose for the victory photos. Chechens are fresh, masculine, jacked, gonna look great
- Commanders fear Kadyrov's anger for Chechen casualties" Image
Kadyrov's troops are not for fighting. They'd rather skip it. They're for keeping control, making PR and ofc torturing. Have a look at this video how Kadyrov's soldier makes a captured Ukrainian shout "Ахмат - сила" (Ahmad strong). Ahmad - is the name of Kadyrov's father
How will these casualties impact Russian society? Well, Russian fascism is pensionary, babushka fascism. Media are crying how sanctions will hurt poor babushkas forgetting that babushkas are *the* main electorate of Putin. This demographic group supports Z most enthusiastically
Watch this video endorsing Z-invasion. It issued by an organisation called "Putin's troops" - отряды Путина. It gives you a good glimpse of Putin's electoral base. People imagine Russia as a "bear", hard, determined, bestial power. In fact Russia is insane warmongering babushka
There is however a problem. First, insane warmongering babushkas who comprise the bulk of electorate support Z. But it's not them who's gonna fight and die. It's the youth who are much less enthusiastic. Compare this anti-war protest demographics with that of "Putin's troops"
There's another problem. Look at these funerals in regional capital of Vladimir. They're burying the entire leadership of Vladimir SOBR, all four their lieutenant colonels. SOBR is a branch of National Guard dealing with the organised crime. And they're being massacred in Ukraine Image
This may be a huge consequence of this war. Ukrainian War may provide a final solution of the Siloviki question. Siloviki are police, state security, intelligence and other paramilitary. This "new nobility" as their chief called them are the real source of Putin's power Image
Ask yourself, why elites do even obey Putin? Why barons submit to the courtiers? Well, because if they disobey Putin gonna "send a doctor". Here Moscow siloviki are arresting Khabarovsk governor Furgal who didn't forge the election in Putin's favor Image
Russia is a vast and very unequal country. Socio-economic and other parameters of its regions vary greatly. Putin enforced obedience, but enforced it by brutal violence. Russian siloviki whom he directly subordinated to Moscow terrorised barons, making them obey to Kremlin Image
Putin's reign of terror was largely motivated by objective limitations. Here you see Russia divided into three zones, red, blue & white, with almost equal population - 48,9 million. Which means key economic regions of Siberia are unthinkably remote from Russian population centres Image
That's why Putin had to use rely on sheer force so heavily. In a country like Russia courtiers have to use a lot of force to keep barons at check, there's no other way. And these siloviki guys were the main tool of Kremlin: arms of the courtiers used to control the barons Image
And here they go. This is not a funeral of Russian soldiers nor of the SOBR leadership. It's the funerals of Putin's regime and of Russia as we know it. Very soon barons will have almost no reason for obedience. Balance of power within elites gonna be renegotiated. End of 🧵 Image
If you like to read my long reads, you can subscribe to my Substack kamilkazani.substack.com
PS recording of "Putin's troops" didn't upload. So I do it now. This message endorsing Z-invasion and Putin gives a good idea on Putin's electoral base. Russian warmongering is not youthful ferocity, it's rather geriatric insanity

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 25
Today I will introduce one more concept critical for understanding of how the manufacturing industry has evolved over the last few decades. It is the shift of technological knowledge from esoteric to exoteric

In the pre-digital era, manufacturing used to be mysterious, esotericImage
To visualize how the manufacturing worked in the pre-computer/early computer age, imagine the atmosphere of magic, mysticism, enigma. That would be not very far from truth.

To illustrate the idea, I will give you one simple, straightforward example. The train car production. Image
Train production is a very, very rare example of a Russian machinery industry that survived through the post-Soviet collapse. Of course, it contracted. Of course, it suffered losses. Still, it made it through, while most of the Soviet machinery sector was simply wiped out. Image
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Rocket Science

As I have already pointed out, general audience, analysts, strategists & decision makers included holds unrealistic notions of how the global economy is organised. Now that is because they never see the back end of industrial civilisation

So let me show you some
There is a major delusion of seeing Europe as a sort of retired continent that "lags in tech" or even "doesn't produce anything". To some extent, it is just American hubris. Image
But there is more in there than just hubris. There is also some honest, sincere ignorance. The thing with most people is that they see only facade of industrial civilisation. They never ever had a chance to look behind the curtains

Whatever there is behind, is a total mysteryImage
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Jun 1
Tu-160M, the "White Swan" is the largest, the heaviest and the fastest bomber in the world. Originally a Soviet design, the plane you see today has limited continuity with the USSR. It was created in late 2010s, as a combined project of Putin's Russia and Siemens Digital Factory Image
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No Nuclear War, no White Swans. Image
With the fall of USSR, Russia suffered a catastrophic drop in military expenditures. As the state was buying little weaponry (and paying for it highly erratically), entire production chains were wiped out. That included some ultra expensive projects such as strategic bombers.Image
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I have repeatedly pointed out that the modern Russian military industry has little continuity with the Soviet one. Destroyed in the 1990s, it was effectively created anew in the Putin's era. Still, it may sound too abstract, so I will zoom in on one specific example:

Stankomash Image
Located in Chelyabink, Stankomash industrial park hosts major producers for the nuclear, shipbuilding, oil & gas and energy industries. It also produces weaponry, including mine trawls and artillery ammunition (based on the open sources)

All under the umbrella of Konar company Image
Some examples of the Stankomash manufacture. These photos well illustrate the philosophy of Soviet/Russian dual use industry. In the peace time, you focus primarily on civilian products, in the war time you convert it all to the production of weaponry.


Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 27 tweets
May 17
No offence, but this is a completely imbecile, ignorant, ridiculous framing. I have no explanation for all this debate except for a complete & determined ignorance of the foreign policy making class, and their refusal to learn literally anything about the material world.
"Components" framing makes sense when we are discussing drones. Why? Because drones are literally made from the imported components. You buy like 90% of them in China, and may be you make like 10% domestically. For the most part, you just assemble what you bought in China.
Not the case with missiles. Most of what the missile consists of, including its most critical, hard to make parts is produced domestically. Why? Because you cannot buy it abroad. More often than not, you cannot buy it in China. You can only make it yourself, domestically.
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Contrary to the popular opinion, Andrey Belousov's appointment as a Minister of Defense makes perfect sense. From the Kremlin's perspective, war is primarily about industry & economy. Now Belousov is the central economic & industrial thinker (and planner) in the Russian gov.
Born into a Soviet Brahmin economist family, Belousov is an exceedingly rare case of an academician making a successful career in the Russian gov. Even more noteworthy, he rose to the position of power through his academic work and publications.

This is unique, ultra rare.Image
Belousov's career track:

1976-1981 Moscow State University ("economic cybernetics"). Basically, economics, but with the heavy use of then new computers.
1981-1986 Central Economic Mathematical Institute
1986-2006 Instutute of Economic Forecasting
2006-2024 Government
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