The war is headed towards gridlock #RussianUkrainianWar
The viral images of Russian tanks stuck in mud is a fitting metaphor for how the country’s invasion in Ukraine is going. #UkraineUnderAttaсk
More than three weeks in, this conflict is likely headed for a stalemate, according to new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). #RussianUkrainianWar
Here’s how the respected research group came to this conclusion.#RussianUkrainianWar
1. Russia’s initial campaign has failed. It attempted to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other major Ukrainian cities in the first few days of the war, but it hasn’t been able to capture those areas due to its own miscues and fierce Ukrainian resistance. #RussianUkrainianWar
2. It’s getting bogged down in Mariupol. Russia has devastated the southeastern Ukrainian city with a suffocating siege and constant shelling. But by devoting so many resources to Mariupol, Russia’s other initiatives are lacking sufficient combat power. #RussianUkrainianWar
3. Russia’s current strategy isn’t working. Its military is stretched thin, engaging in small-scale, local fighting that isn’t producing results. #RussianUkrainianWar
So what does stalemate mean? #RussianUkrainianWar
In military-speak, a stalemate is not a ceasefire, but a situation in which both sides launch offensives that don’t move the needle. #RussianUkrainianWar
In this war, it could mean more civilian deaths, as stymied Russian forces launch long-range missiles on populated areas in order to break the Ukrainians’ will. #RussianUkrainianWar
In all, the conflict could drag on for weeks or months. #RussianUkrainianWar
Sustained Western military support for Ukraine will be a key factor shaping the ultimate outcome of the war. #RussianUkrainianWar
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