Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 23, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Many argued that Europe can't stop buying Russian oil and gas and thus will continue funding Russian war machine. Well, it seems problem solved itself. Today Putin declared he'll sell Russian gas to unfriendly countries only for rubles Image
That makes position of those advocating for continuing this import much weaker. Just yesterday if you wanted to continue buying Russian gas you could simply keep status quo, which is easy procedure-wise. But now you'll have to abandon it and make active effort to keep import
Just yesterday those advocating for keeping the gas import from Russia had a high ground in a short term perspective. They could sabotage the efforts of those wanting to stop it while Russia keeps fighting. But now it's the opposite
Now opponents of gas import from Russia absolutely can sabotage the efforts of those who strive to continue it. You simply need to sabotage their every attempt to switch to rubles to pay for Russian gas until Russia loses. Under the EU vetocracy that's certainly a high ground
There is however a problem here. Russian gas continues flowing via Ukraine and Ukraine gets transit fees that help fund its war efforts. Absurd as it may sound, that's reality. Thus new sources of funding must be secured to compensate this loss, so that Ukraine can keep resisting
Russia Today chief Simonyan commented:

"Next step - barter payments with airplanes, high speed trains, whatever we need"

Sounds dumb. But it reflects the weak point of Russian economy: machinery. Russia desperately needs imported machinery and will soon be crumbling without it Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Nov 16
Why the USSR failed?

There are two ways for a poor, underdeveloped country to industrialise: Soviet vs Chinese way. Soviet way is to build the edifice of industrial economy from the foundations. Chinese way is to build it from the roof.

1st way sounds good, 2nd actually works. Image
To proceed further, I need to introduce a new concept. Let's divide the manufacturing industry into two unequal sectors, Front End vs Back End:

Front End - they make whatever you see on the supermarket shelf

Back End - they make whatever that stands behind, that you don’t see
Front End industries are making consumer goods. That is, whatever you buy, as an individual. Toys, clothes, furniture, appliances all falls under this category. The list of top selling amazon products gives a not bad idea what the front end sector is, and how it looks like. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 13
Nation state is not some basic property of reality (as many falsely presume). They do not just organically grow out of the “ethnically drawn borders”. That is not how it works. They usually grow out of the *administratively* drawn borders, on whichever continent.
First they draw administrative borders based on whatever rationales and considerations. Then, these arbitrarily drawn administrative borders turn out to be surprisingly stable, more stable than anyone could ever expect. Eventually they become borders of the nation states.
States do not grow out of ethnicities. States grow out of the administrative zones, fiscal zones, customs zones et cetera. Basically, a Big Guy got a right to collect taxes and rents over these territories, but not those territories. Then the border between what he can milk…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
Why have elections?

Every election in the US attracts huge global attention. People in Pakistan, people in Paraguay, people in Poland, people in Papua New Guinea are monitoring the course of elections and tend to hold strong opinions regarding whom they would prefer to win Image
Why would that be the case? Well, one obvious reason would be that the US elections are, in fact, seen as the world elections. People in Paraguay do not vote in the US and yet, the US elections have a very strong impact on the fortunes of Paraguay.

Or Russia, in this case: Image
And I am not discussing the economic fortunes only. In terms of politics, in terms of culture, in terms of discourse, American relations with the rest of the world tend to be strikingly one-directional. Much or most of the global discourse comes downstream from the Unites States Image
Read 14 tweets
Oct 26
There is hardly any other genre of literature more factual, and more realistic than the sci-fi. It is exactly its non-serious, seemingly abstract character that allows it to escape censorship and ostracism to a far greater degree than it is normally possible for a work of art. Image
Sci-fi allows you to to present the most painful, insulting, insufferable, obnoxious, criminal and traitorous arguments in a non-serious way, as a fun, as a joke. In this regard, it is far superior to any other genre. Compare three ways to sell a heresy: Image
By its very nature, sci-fi is inseparable from the social commentary. For this reason, quality sci-fi should be always read as a self-reflection and self-criticism of the society it is written in.

If the "Gulliver’s Travels" is a reflection on Britain… Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 25
What you should know about Tatarstan?

Tatarstan is a large and wealthy ethnic republic located, in the very middle of Russia. While being culturally and institutionally distinctive, it is not really peripheral. It sits in a few kilometres from the population centre of Russia🧵 Image
While Tatarstan does not sit in the centre of Russia geography-wise, it does so demography-wise. The Russian centre of population (red star), located somewhere in southwest Udmurtia, is literally in a walking distance from the Tatarstani border.

It is the very middle of Russia. Image
If you look at the Russian administrative map, you will see that most ethnic republics (colored) occupy a peripheral position. The main exception are republics of the Volga-Ural region (green), located in the middle of Russia & surrounded by the Slavic sea.

How did that happen? Image
Read 33 tweets
Sep 17
Wagner march was incredible, unprecedented to the extent most foreigners simply do not understand. Like, yes, Russia had its military coups in the 18th c. But those were the palace coups, all done by the Guards. Purely praetorian business with zero participation of the army.
Yes, there was a Kornilov affair in 1917, but that happened after the coup in capital. In March they overthrew the Tsar, then there was infighting in the capital, including a Bolshevik revolt in July, and only in September part of the army marches to St Petersburg.

Half a year after the coup. Not the same thing
I think the last time anything like that happened was in 1698, when the Musketeers marched on Moscow from the Western border. And then, next time, only in 2023.

(Army leaves the border/battlefield and marches on the capital without a previous praetorian coup in the capital)
Read 17 tweets

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