1/4
It may be exciting to think of history as consisting of turning points, but the Russian invasion is no more a turning point than was COVID, also widely hailed as such. Both events just accelerated what had already been happening for nearly a decade
nytimes.com/2022/03/24/bus…
It may be exciting to think of history as consisting of turning points, but the Russian invasion is no more a turning point than was COVID, also widely hailed as such. Both events just accelerated what had already been happening for nearly a decade
nytimes.com/2022/03/24/bus…
2/4
Globalization has been measurably in retreat since at least the GFC, and for good reason. The version of globalization into which we have locked ourselves has led to persistent trade and savings imbalances, rising income inequality, and soaring debt.
Globalization has been measurably in retreat since at least the GFC, and for good reason. The version of globalization into which we have locked ourselves has led to persistent trade and savings imbalances, rising income inequality, and soaring debt.
3/4
This was always going to be resolved one way or another, either because the leading economies decided to get together in a new Bretton Woods and repair the global trade and capital regime, or because populism and war forced countries to turn inward and against each other.
This was always going to be resolved one way or another, either because the leading economies decided to get together in a new Bretton Woods and repair the global trade and capital regime, or because populism and war forced countries to turn inward and against each other.
4/4
I suspect we will unfortunately continue to follow the latter path, although there is a small chance that by unifying the West the Russian invasion may unexpectedly push us towards the former. In that case it will perhaps really be a turning point.
I suspect we will unfortunately continue to follow the latter path, although there is a small chance that by unifying the West the Russian invasion may unexpectedly push us towards the former. In that case it will perhaps really be a turning point.
For those who are interested, the link below is to a World Bank graph that shows trade as a share of global GDP. The share rises rapidly for decades, until 2008, after which it flattens and then begins to fall quite rapidly.
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.T…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.T…
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