Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 24, 2022 27 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Captain Farid Chitav and 11 his subordinates from Russian National Guard (Росгвардия) refused to go to Ukraine. Their regiment from Krasnodar was ordered to Ukraine and they objected. They said that they don't have a foreign passport and thus can't cross Russian border legally Image
They said that crossing Russian border without a foreign passport (you need for travelling abroad) is illegal and constitutes a felony 322 УК РФ. Thus they can't go. What happened to them? They were all fired. Now they are suing their commandment for firing them illegally Image
That's very important case for understanding Russian state and well, almost any state in this world. When we are analysing its practices we often use imbecile, meaningless categories like "legal/illegal". Let me introduce much better term - "procedural" Image
Practices of state, including the Putin's state may not be legal. They absolutely can break Russian law on every level. But that does *not* mean they're random or chaotic. Nope. They're very procedural, much more than regular people can imagine Image
We often describe Kafka's works as absurdist. But they're not absurdist at all. Kafka was a highly competent and successful bureaucrat valued by his superiors. His narratives are logical. Except it's not human logic, it's procedural logic, logic of a machine Image
Consider Stalin's purges. They're often described as illegal. Yes, Stalin's state security broke Soviet laws on every level, constantly. But that doesn't mean their actions were chaotic or fully capricious. Nope. They followed procedural logic of bureaucracy Image
What was the procedure of Stalin's purges? To convict someone, you need to get a confession, "The Queen of all evidences" as Vyshynsky told. After you did get it, you can do whatever with a convict. But you still must get it, there's no way around that. He must confess himself Image
Of course that created a vast grey zone. State security usually couldn't convict anyone without confession. So they would interpret it very, very broadly. If you say something (however innocent), they can qualify as a confession, you're done. So just shut up or deny everything Image
A real case. In 1935 NKVD got an anonymous letter that a bunch of Kazan University students are gathering for political talks. One of them is mocking Stalin and Communism, others laugh. Ofc all of them were arrested and interrogated - what did happen exactly?
The guy who joked about Stalin denied everything. His several other friends denied, too. Nope, he's a true Communist and would never mock Stalin, no way. Only two guys responded - yeah, he indeed mocked Stalin, we heard it. Guess what? These two went to jail, others were released Image
From a human perspective this doesn't make sense. Obviously these two were more willing to cooperate with NKVD and betray their friends? And yet, only they were punished. From procedural perspective it makes total sense. You need to get *anything* that passes for confessions Image
"I didn't mock Stalin" - doesn't pass for confession

"I never heard him mocking Stalin, he's praising him every day" doesn't pass

"Yes, he mocked Stalin all the time, he's a traitor" - it is a confession. You just confessed you listened to the treasonous talk. To GULAG you go Image
Again from a standpoint of human logic that's crazy. You jailed these two for listening to treasonous talk but released the one who did this treasonous talk? Yeah, but he didn't confess. Procedural requirements are not met. They did. Procedural requirements are met. Go to GULAG Image
NB: do NOT apply human logic to bureaucratic procedures. "That doesn't make sense, that's crazy", no, it's you who are crazy. It's insane to believe you are dealing with humans. Nope. You are dealing with gears of bureaucratic mechanism, working according to a procedural logic Image
Let me give you another example. In 1937 the Great Purge and mass arrests started. One guy in St Petersburg belonged to hereditary nobility. He knew he'd be arrested. And they'll be extorting confession. He can deny everything, but they can torture him to death. That's suboptimal Image
He acted smarter. During the night he went to a store, broke a window. Got inside, filled his bag with valuable stuff and waited for police to come. They came, arrested him. He got 5 years of jail for robbing a store *as a regular criminal*. That's how he survived the Great Purge Image
If he lived his regular life, he'd be arrested as a political criminal. That's the end. They'd investigate him for more political crimes, adding more charges. But now he chose a different track. Regular criminal track was so much better than a track of a spy/counterrevolutionary Image
Again that doesn't make sense from a human perspective. If he did a robbery, why can't he also be a spy? But procedurally speaking, it makes total sense. Normal criminals are investigated by regular police. Politicals - by state security. These two different tracks don't mix Image
So you either wait till state security comes to arrest you for a political crime. Then you are done. Or you can go commit a regular crime to be arrested by regular police. Then you get on a regular criminal track and will be safe in jail. NKVD won't come for you, you're saved Image
You must fully understand that you're not dealing with humans but with a machine. It's working procedurally, according to a certain algorithm which is ofc full of bugs. Which can be exploited. That's what constitutes much of difference between the poor and the rich in any country Image
The poor stupidly believe they're dealing with humans. Thus they "follow the rules" and get fucked. Absurd as it may sound, they may even feel proud for following the law, following the common procedure without demanding any special privileges. Of course these idiots will suffer Image
The rich know they're not dealing with humans but with a procedural mechanism. It can and must be hacked, you just need to find a bug. And they will actively look for it. A rich *will* demand a special treatment and make a case why he deserves it. And they often get it Image
Consider the Z-invasion. Who was sent there? Well, kids of imbecile broke ass bumpkins who are so brainless that they actually follow the law. Well, if the law says everyone should serve in the army, defend the country, who am I too object? Thus they feed their kids to Moloch Image
Rich kids don't get to the trenches no matter what is written in the law. Why? Well because smart people don't give a fuck about the law. For a smarter, successful person the law is not a moral imperative, but a stupid algorithm to be hacked. And they'll figure out how to hack it Image
Let's sum up. Legality/illegality is a bad tool for analysing human institutions. Too much moral pathos, too little substance. Much better concept is procedurality. Policies may not be legal, but they absolutely are procedural and thus have bugs which make them easy to hack Image
Rich smart people correctly understand this procedural nature of human institutions. Thus when dealing with them they have only one question - how to hack them? They are actively looking for bugs, find them and get what they want, in the forms of "privileges" or special treatment Image
Dumb and poor on the other hand do not understand this procedural nature of institutions. They're so stupid that they see not only human qualities but even a sort of moral authority in a soulless machine. Of course they get fucked. That's how it should be. End of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Mar 22
In August 1999, President Yeltsin appointed his FSB Chief Putin as the new Prime Minister. Same day, he named him as the official successor. Yet, there was a problem. To become a president, Putin had to go through elections which he could not win.

He was completely obscure.Image
Today, Putin is the top rank global celebrity. But in August 1999, nobody knew him. He was just an obscure official of Yeltsin's administration, made a PM by the arbitrary will of the sovereign. This noname clerk had like 2-3% of popular support

Soon, he was to face elections Image
By the time of Putin's appointment, Russia already had its most favoured candidate. It was Primakov. A former Yeltsin's Prime Minister who broke with Yeltsin to contest for power. The most popular politician in Russia with massive support both in masses and in the establishment. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 17
In Russia, the supreme power has never ever changed as a result of elections. That simply never happened in history. Now that is because Russia is a (non hereditary) monarchy. Consequently, it doesn't have any elections. It has only acclamations of a sitting rulerImage
Obviously, there has been no elections of Putin in any meaningful sense. There have been only acclamations. And that is normal. His predecessor was successfully acclaimed with an approval rate of about 6%. Once you got the power, you will get your acclamation one way or another
Contrary to the popular opinion, Russia doesn't have any acclamation ("election") problem. It has a transition of power problem. Like Putin can get acclaimed again, and again, and again. But sooner or later, he dies. What next?
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16
My team has documented the entire Russian missile manufacturing base. That is 28 key ballistic, cruise, hypersonic and air defence missile producing plants associated with four corporations of Roscosmos, Almaz-Antey, Tactical Missiles and Rostec

The link is in the first comment Image
Our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? is already available for download



By the next weekend, we will be publishing the first OSINT sample, illustrating our methodology & approach. The rest of our materials will be made available laterrhodus.comImage
Key takeaways:

1. Missile production is mostly about machining
2. You cannot produce components of tight precision and convoluted geometry otherwise
3. Soviet missiles industry performed most of its machining manually

That was extremely laborious and skill-intensive processImage
Read 15 tweets
Feb 25
No one gets famous by accident. If Alexey @Navalny rose as the unalternative leader of Russian opposition, recognised as such both in Moscow and in DC, this indicates he had something that others lacked. Today we will discuss what it was and why it did not suffice 🧵Image
Let's start with the public image. What was so special about the (mature) @navalny is that his public image represented normality. And by normality I mean first and foremost the American, Hollywood normality

Look at this photo. He represents himself as American politicians doImage
For an American politician, it is very important to present himself as a good family man (or woman). Exceptions do only corroborate the rule. Notice how McCain defends @BarackObama

"No, he's a decent family man, citizen"

In America one thing is tied with another
Read 23 tweets
Feb 19
Should Putin just suddenly die, @MedvedevRussiaE is the most likely compromise candidate for the supreme political power. He is the inaugurated President for God's sake. Which means, the anointed King.Image
"Not a real king", "Figurehead", "Nobody takes him seriously" is just intangible verbalism. Nothing of that matters. What matters is that he is the inaugurated President, consecrated by God. Opinions are subjective, anointment is objective

It is the factImage
Medvedev may be one single person in the entire Russian establishment with a decent chance to keep power, should Putin go. For this reason, he may not even need to fight for power. The power will very probably be handed to him

He is the rightful King -> guarantor of stabilityImage
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18
On Friday, @navalny died (most probably killed) in prison. This is a good time to discuss the prospects of Russian opposition and the future transition of political power, once Putin is gone. This is also a good occasion to debunk some pervasive myths on the mechanics of power🧵 Image
First, getting rid of @navalny was probably a correct decision on behalf of Kremlin. Execution of this murder may have been suboptimal (unprofessional, etc.). But the very idea to eliminate him was reasonable and makes total sense. There is nothing crazy or irrational about it
This remark may sound as cynical or paradoxical. So let me present you another paradox, which is yet to be fully processed by the political theorists. And the paradox is:

Bloody tyrants rule longer

The Russian history may possibly demonstrate this better than any otherImage
Image
Read 19 tweets

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