Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 24, 2022 27 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Captain Farid Chitav and 11 his subordinates from Russian National Guard (Росгвардия) refused to go to Ukraine. Their regiment from Krasnodar was ordered to Ukraine and they objected. They said that they don't have a foreign passport and thus can't cross Russian border legally Image
They said that crossing Russian border without a foreign passport (you need for travelling abroad) is illegal and constitutes a felony 322 УК РФ. Thus they can't go. What happened to them? They were all fired. Now they are suing their commandment for firing them illegally Image
That's very important case for understanding Russian state and well, almost any state in this world. When we are analysing its practices we often use imbecile, meaningless categories like "legal/illegal". Let me introduce much better term - "procedural" Image
Practices of state, including the Putin's state may not be legal. They absolutely can break Russian law on every level. But that does *not* mean they're random or chaotic. Nope. They're very procedural, much more than regular people can imagine Image
We often describe Kafka's works as absurdist. But they're not absurdist at all. Kafka was a highly competent and successful bureaucrat valued by his superiors. His narratives are logical. Except it's not human logic, it's procedural logic, logic of a machine Image
Consider Stalin's purges. They're often described as illegal. Yes, Stalin's state security broke Soviet laws on every level, constantly. But that doesn't mean their actions were chaotic or fully capricious. Nope. They followed procedural logic of bureaucracy Image
What was the procedure of Stalin's purges? To convict someone, you need to get a confession, "The Queen of all evidences" as Vyshynsky told. After you did get it, you can do whatever with a convict. But you still must get it, there's no way around that. He must confess himself Image
Of course that created a vast grey zone. State security usually couldn't convict anyone without confession. So they would interpret it very, very broadly. If you say something (however innocent), they can qualify as a confession, you're done. So just shut up or deny everything Image
A real case. In 1935 NKVD got an anonymous letter that a bunch of Kazan University students are gathering for political talks. One of them is mocking Stalin and Communism, others laugh. Ofc all of them were arrested and interrogated - what did happen exactly?
The guy who joked about Stalin denied everything. His several other friends denied, too. Nope, he's a true Communist and would never mock Stalin, no way. Only two guys responded - yeah, he indeed mocked Stalin, we heard it. Guess what? These two went to jail, others were released Image
From a human perspective this doesn't make sense. Obviously these two were more willing to cooperate with NKVD and betray their friends? And yet, only they were punished. From procedural perspective it makes total sense. You need to get *anything* that passes for confessions Image
"I didn't mock Stalin" - doesn't pass for confession

"I never heard him mocking Stalin, he's praising him every day" doesn't pass

"Yes, he mocked Stalin all the time, he's a traitor" - it is a confession. You just confessed you listened to the treasonous talk. To GULAG you go Image
Again from a standpoint of human logic that's crazy. You jailed these two for listening to treasonous talk but released the one who did this treasonous talk? Yeah, but he didn't confess. Procedural requirements are not met. They did. Procedural requirements are met. Go to GULAG Image
NB: do NOT apply human logic to bureaucratic procedures. "That doesn't make sense, that's crazy", no, it's you who are crazy. It's insane to believe you are dealing with humans. Nope. You are dealing with gears of bureaucratic mechanism, working according to a procedural logic Image
Let me give you another example. In 1937 the Great Purge and mass arrests started. One guy in St Petersburg belonged to hereditary nobility. He knew he'd be arrested. And they'll be extorting confession. He can deny everything, but they can torture him to death. That's suboptimal Image
He acted smarter. During the night he went to a store, broke a window. Got inside, filled his bag with valuable stuff and waited for police to come. They came, arrested him. He got 5 years of jail for robbing a store *as a regular criminal*. That's how he survived the Great Purge Image
If he lived his regular life, he'd be arrested as a political criminal. That's the end. They'd investigate him for more political crimes, adding more charges. But now he chose a different track. Regular criminal track was so much better than a track of a spy/counterrevolutionary Image
Again that doesn't make sense from a human perspective. If he did a robbery, why can't he also be a spy? But procedurally speaking, it makes total sense. Normal criminals are investigated by regular police. Politicals - by state security. These two different tracks don't mix Image
So you either wait till state security comes to arrest you for a political crime. Then you are done. Or you can go commit a regular crime to be arrested by regular police. Then you get on a regular criminal track and will be safe in jail. NKVD won't come for you, you're saved Image
You must fully understand that you're not dealing with humans but with a machine. It's working procedurally, according to a certain algorithm which is ofc full of bugs. Which can be exploited. That's what constitutes much of difference between the poor and the rich in any country Image
The poor stupidly believe they're dealing with humans. Thus they "follow the rules" and get fucked. Absurd as it may sound, they may even feel proud for following the law, following the common procedure without demanding any special privileges. Of course these idiots will suffer Image
The rich know they're not dealing with humans but with a procedural mechanism. It can and must be hacked, you just need to find a bug. And they will actively look for it. A rich *will* demand a special treatment and make a case why he deserves it. And they often get it Image
Consider the Z-invasion. Who was sent there? Well, kids of imbecile broke ass bumpkins who are so brainless that they actually follow the law. Well, if the law says everyone should serve in the army, defend the country, who am I too object? Thus they feed their kids to Moloch Image
Rich kids don't get to the trenches no matter what is written in the law. Why? Well because smart people don't give a fuck about the law. For a smarter, successful person the law is not a moral imperative, but a stupid algorithm to be hacked. And they'll figure out how to hack it Image
Let's sum up. Legality/illegality is a bad tool for analysing human institutions. Too much moral pathos, too little substance. Much better concept is procedurality. Policies may not be legal, but they absolutely are procedural and thus have bugs which make them easy to hack Image
Rich smart people correctly understand this procedural nature of human institutions. Thus when dealing with them they have only one question - how to hack them? They are actively looking for bugs, find them and get what they want, in the forms of "privileges" or special treatment Image
Dumb and poor on the other hand do not understand this procedural nature of institutions. They're so stupid that they see not only human qualities but even a sort of moral authority in a soulless machine. Of course they get fucked. That's how it should be. End of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets

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