Thread by @QRemedyResearch

1. Non-convoy 🧵- Reddit reminded me it's been 6 months since the Sept 2021 post titled- "Is The Worst Over? Modelers Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March"

LOL

Modeling is imprecise- a good thing to remember now as restrictions are (again) being relaxed

2. From the NPR article "There's wide range of uncertainty in the models, he notes, and it's plausible, though very unlikely, that cases could continue to rise to as many as 232,000 per day before starting to decline."

Cases hit a daily average of about 800,000 in January 2022.

3. "This scenario assumes that the U.S. doesn't get hit with a new variant that's even more contagious than delta. If it does, a bleaker scenario from the Modeling Hub projects far worse numbers: just below 50,000 cases a day by next March." We started March at 58,000 cases/day.

4. Those modelers do a challenging job with a lot of variables. Even the more pessimistic scenarios they laid out in Sept 2021 were nowhere near the number of cases we saw during the omicron this past winter.

5. Soooo yeah- imma keep wearing my kn-95 when I go into indoor public spaces, and my n95 if things get worse. I'm hoping that I'll look at this tweet in 6 months and realize I was being too doom-y. I wonder if Twitter has a remind me bot? /end