Several people have put it to me that surely, once lots of young Russian men start coming back in body bags, Russians will turn against the war. I am not so convinced. Let me explain why:
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There are lots of stories of Russians refusing to believe the truth about Ukraine from their relatives, or even their own POW sons. The story below is abt a mum whose son died in 🇺🇦. She responds to his death by arguing that sth went wrong but this means Russia must fight harder
and further. Onwards to victory. Even though she admits not really understanding what the war is about.
I have a son and at first this horrified me but then it started to make a weird, tragic and terrible sense.
Lots of people believe the Kremlin propaganda because it is easier and more preferable to admitting or accepting you are the bad guys. Now, imagine accepting your son died in a pointless war and that he was part of a genocidal campaign?
It is natural, anyone would try to resist believing that, especially when the entirety of the state is offering you a much more consolatory version and when you can’t really do anything about the situation so avenging your son or acknowledging your anger is pointless & dangerous
So instead you become even more attached to the myths and propaganda of brave Russian heroes fighting Nazis. Bc you want your son to have died for something epic, not for nothing, or even worse as part of your country’s genocidal campaign against an innocent people
On a much less profound or emotional level, this same process will happen to many sectors and groups of people in Russia. For example, those who will lose their life savings and business or lifestyle due to the war and sanctions
It is much easier and nicer to accept this loss as a sacrifice, in the name of an epic civilisational fight against fascism, that it is your part in defeating a new Hitler, than to accept everything you ever worked for disappeared because of the sick fantasies of an ex-KGB agent
This is yet another way for the Kremlin, Putin, to make ordinary Russians complicit. They become invested in the lies and in the continuation of this horrific war. Until victory at whatever price and in whatever guise so long as it justifies the loss.
It’d be hard to face reality even with support. So in an atmosphere where the government is terrorising even mild opposition, ppl are unlikely to resist the comfort of lies+myth.
Which is why I think young Russian boys in body bags will harden rather than change 🇷🇺 opinions.
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As Russia continues to attack UA’s energy infrastructure, today more than ever we are at a crossroads in the Russo-Ukrainian war. And Western govts, individually, need to recognise that & make a decision
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I split my time betw my home in Kharkiv & my home in the UK. I see the ugly & heroic parts of the war & then I see how much ppl in the West tend to simplify.
In Western imaginations there are two wars: 1/
1) The war of Ukrainians in Sudzha, of daring raids, of brave resistance fighters, of resilience & stoicism in the face of constant attacks, of 10:1 Russian losses, of UA and rocket innovations, a story hampered only by US refusals to let UA use its weapons in Russia 2/
A new day, a new message to say someone I know has died. The third this week
Last night I fell asleep to the sound of bombs dropping on Kharkiv region
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Meanwhile, publishers ask me to review books from US-based Mearsheimer stans on how it’s west’s fault Russians are destroying Ukraine
Fellow Westerners: get a grip already. I feel ashamed of us.
This isn’t a dinner party debate, it is war & it is horrible. The only way to stop it is to stop Russia, to make it clear it can’t achieve its aims. You might want to luxuriate in theoretical abstractions but they only reveal superficiality.
This week I have given public talks across 🇺🇦 plus my usual hanging out with soldiers in Kharkiv
Ukrainians often ask me ‘Why doesn’t the West…’ questions that I don’t have answers to. I will share common qs below 🧵
Ukrainian followers, please add more
1) Why does the West care about the ‘cancelling’ of Dostoevsky but not about the killing of Ukrainian writers on the front, the burning of our books in the occupied territories, the bans on Ukrainian language, the looting of our museums?
2) Why does the West listen to the Russian opposition? Russians are destroying Ukraine & none of them do anything to stop it.
I see Meduza getting some flack for this, imo, brave decision.
1) these views are only of war-supporting readers & don’t represent Meduza readers or all liberal Russians 2) it is important to post this bc it gives us insight into some reasons even anti-Putin 🇷🇺 agrees w war
It is an invitation to move beyond tiring binaries. Yes, there is brave opposition, yes, there are some enthusiastic war supporters, but more often there is a tacit acquiescence driven by human psychology, fear, propaganda, Ukrainophobia, solipsism, & a range of other dif things
Russians aren’t an essentialist mass either way & @meduzaproject did the right thing in showing some of the nuance in & reality & range of public reactions to Russia’s war on Ukraine
Written before Russia’s War, it is in many ways a prequel. Based on research over eight years, incl my PhD, it looks at state society co-creation of historical myth as a workable national identity, way to interpret the present, and redefinition of truth and Russianness 3/
Today my article in @Telegraph is being critiqued by 90s popsters Right Said Fred. So, yes, is the answer I guess.
As it is paywalled, here is a 🧵 of my arg as to why negotiations now won’t bring peace & the West’s realistic options
Even if we pretend Ukrainians have no agency & the West forcing a peace wouldn’t result in overthrow of govt, Zelensky, & insurrection on EU borders, what can the West even give Putin? Not much 👇
There is no evidence Putin seriously wants a deal. Of course he wants peace for himself to do what he wants. But that isn’t peace, especially for the Ukrainians! And again, I have to stress, the Ukrainians, not unreasonably, like existing and so do not want to give in to Putin