Thread by @GabrielCSGavin

Good morning from the Armenian city of Goris.

Just across these mountains is the border with Azerbaijan & the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where there are warnings a full-scale war could break out.

I'm going to try and explain what both sides say is going on. THREAD 🧵

Yesterday, Russian peacekeepers, who have been tasked with holding the contact line under the terms of a 2020 ceasefire, reported Azerbaijani troops had carried out drone strikes killing three AM servicemen, and begun pushing into Armenian-held villages.

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1507764368028672002?s=20&t=aFiWOGcOZW8wltkWrvS4Rw

In a rare show of unity, the US & France have joined Moscow demanding Azerbaijani troops return to their starting positions.

Armenian is warning Baku could begin a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" against the breakaway region, which has declared martial law

https://twitter.com/ZMnatsakanyan/status/1507809922095980544?s=20&t=aFiWOGcOZW8wltkWrvS4Rw

However, Azerbaijan insists its troops have the right to move within their country's "internationally recognized borders" and claims they are securing their land against "armed terrorists."

Baku rejects Moscow's version of events as "Armenian propaganda."

https://twitter.com/TGanjaliyev/status/1507714375406268419?s=20&t=hzvlv2RTeCq4lZX9vMxQFg

In addition, Baku claims Armenia has refused to withdraw its forces from inside Nagorno-Karabakh, and says the region itself does not exist.

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1507805751108161538?s=20&t=aFiWOGcOZW8wltkWrvS4Rw

It appears the Moscow-brokered 2020 peace deal is coming unstuck, and Russian peacekeepers are not willing or able to enforce the demilitarization of the contact line at present.

While the West condemned fighting in the past, it was left up to the Kremlin to end the war.

Now, though it seems Putin is preoccupied with his brutal war of aggression in Ukraine & the standing of its armed forces has diminished.

The secretary of Kyiv's Security Council, Alexey Danilov, has argued Russia has started a chain reaction by spreading itself so thin.

After Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan appealed to Putin for support, whether fresh fighting begins in Nagorno-Karbakh will come down to whether Moscow wants to assert itself - and whether it is able to.

Here's a convoy of Russian peacekeepers on the move near the border yesterday.

Update from the diplomatic back and forth tonight...

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1508154088260780033?s=20&t=5dFEF3F_7Ge2R3W08t-KZg

And here we go - Armenia now rejecting Moscow's claims Azeri troops have withdrawn, calling on Russian peacekeepers to forcefully evict them...

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1508368579950833664?s=20

Another twist. Is this Moscow backtracking on yesterday’s statement? Or doubling down on it after they said Azeri troops withdrew?

Puts the Kremlin at extreme odds with Armenia, either way.

https://twitter.com/gabrielcsgavin/status/1508486345953533953

Increasingly sounding as though Russian peacekeepers are being more assertive in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This statement likely means the previous one was just about today, and they’re taking steps to prevent a confrontation. Maybe.

https://twitter.com/avetissianan/status/1508539587416801298