Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Mar 28 11 tweets 3 min read
🚨The Ukrainian military is violating the Geneva Conventions.

They're using civilian DHL trucks to attack Russian forces.

That is textbook "perfidy" – prohibited by Article 37 of First Protocol Additional to the 1949 Geneva Conventions. 🧵
This is the text of the prohibition.

Perfidy is defined as an act that:

(1) invites the adversary to believe he must provide protection under international law

and

(2) intentionally uses that false belief against the adversary.
There can be no doubt that Ukrainian forces are guilty of this crime by using DHL trucks to stage mortar attacks against Russian forces.

Specifically, the Geneva Conventions prohibit "the feigning of civilian, non-combatant status."

That is what Ukraine is doing.
Perfidy is a serious crime because it has 2nd and 3rd order consequences in a war.

Once the RU military recognizes that Ukraine's army is attacking from civilian vehicles, every civilian vehicle becomes a potential target.

Ukrainians are being endangered by their own military.
The fundamental purpose of wearing uniforms and using distinctively marked military vehicles is to create a firebreak between civilians and combatants.

When Ukraine employs civilian vehicles for combat operations, it dismantles that barrier.
This is the latest example of a trend in which Ukrainian defenders have blurred the lines between civilians and soldiers.

Using DHL trucks to attack Russians is a logical evolution of handing out rifles and molotov cocktails to the public.
Criticizing Ukraine for perfidy isn't some technical "gotcha."

Perfidy was a longstanding crime under customary international law, even before the Geneva Conventions were adopted.

It has always been considered deplorable conduct that invites barbarism.
In 1907, perfidy was prohibited by Article 23(b) of the Hague Regulations, which outlaw "treacherously" killing or wounding enemy combatants.

What Ukraine is doing isn't a minor infraction. It's a fundamental violation of the laws of war.
People are claiming it's OK for Ukraine to violate the Geneva Conventions, because Russia is the aggressor.

Newsflash – in war, each side blames the other.

If that gave you a license to commit war crimes, then that's what would happen in *every war.*
I'm also curious about the scope of the exception that Ukraine is entitled to as a defender.

Which parts of the Geneva Conventions is it allowed to break?

Is it OK for Ukraine to, say... torture Russian POWs? Are the videos of them doing that *not* war crimes?
Why do I focus on Ukrainian war crimes?

Because America has the power to STOP them.

*Our* government is spending *our* money as taxpayers to support a military gone rogue.

If we condition our military aid on Ukraine following the Geneva Conventions, they'll do it.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Mar 19
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: Russia has fired hypersonic Kinzhal ("dagger") missiles in Ukraine.

Officially, the weapons were used to destroy a munitions depot in Ivano-Frankivsk.

In reality, this is a MAJOR deterrent signal to NATO. 🧵 Image
There is no plausible reason that the Kinzhal would need to be deployed against Ukraine, given that its air defenses have already been suppressed.

It is Russia's single most advanced conventional weapon – 13 times as fast as a tomahawk, with 3x the payload. Image
Russia's use of the Kinzhal in Ukraine is similar to Trump's use of the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) in Afghanistan in 2017.

In both instances, the point of the weapons deployment was not the immediate combat effect.

The goal is to menace other adversaries by demoing a system. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 9
🚨 Russia is escalating its controversial claims about U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine.

Today, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences -- Alexander Bartosh -- claimed America was developing *gene weapons* in Ukraine targeting Slavs. 🚨
To be clear, I am NOT endorsing the theory that America was developing gene-weapons in Ukraine.

I am *reporting* on this messaging from Russia's national-security establishment.

What Bartosh says is believed by the Russian public, and affects their support for the war.
Bartosh claims that it's not a coincidence the U.S. was performing anti-slavic gene-weapons development in Ukraine.

He says the laboratories need to be located close to the targets of the gene weapons to replicate the necessary environmental and demographic conditions.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
🚨Congress is debating an EMP first strike to disable Russian planes.

They're calling it a "non-kinetic no-fly zone."

Here's a better name: "WW3."
This proposal is so insane that it would be funny, if there weren't lawmakers pushing it.

To ground Russian jets with an EMP, you'd need to detonate a nuclear warhead.

The "non-kinetic" option is literally a nuclear first strike.
The claim that "sonar" could be used to ground Russian fighters is... incomprehensible?

It uses sound waves to detect objects underwater.

It doesn't magically stop planes from taking off.

Even our best electronic-warfare systems don't have that capability.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.

They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.

A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong. 🧵
Objectively, Putin's poll numbers have improved since the lead-up to and onset of the war.

This was predictable – a "rally 'round the flag" effect is common for wartime president.

In less than 2 weeks, his approval rating spiked 10 points – from 61% to 71%.
Many in the West are predicting that this effect will be short lived.

Analysts think that Russians will sour on Putin if the economic situation in the country continues to worsen.

But there's a gaping hole in their theory: Russians don't think the war was Putin's fault.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 7
The torture videos of Maxim Ryndovskiy have revealed that few people understand how falsification works.

Karl Popper must be rolling over in his grave, hearing much of the debate on Twitter. 🧵
To falsify the videos, you'd need to show tattoos he had before that *aren't* in the videos.

That would be strong evidence, since tattoos are rarely removed.

Nobody has done that. There are no missing tattoos.
What people have done is post undated photos, where he had fewer tattoos.

They then argue that the torture victim in the video can't be Mr. Ryndovskiy, since he had "extra tattoos."

Seriously? You're not aware that people can, and often do, get more tattoos over time?
Read 6 tweets
Mar 5
SITREP Day 10: Many analysts are predicting an imminent defeat of the Russian military.

In reality, Russia is on the verge of annihilating the bulk of the Ukrainian army.

The people denying this are gaslighting you.
No, I'm not exaggerating.

This viral thread from a prominent "expert" claims the Russian military is days away from collapsing and suffering the worst defeat in history.

Another, even more popular thread predicts the course of the war from looking at tires.

It claims that maintenance problems observed on a few vehicles show that Russian forces are doomed.

Read 18 tweets

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