In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the ECASH Act and how unlike many ideas for, eg, Central Bank Digital Currencies etc., this actually tries to solve a real problem.

Sub here:… ImageImage
@markets And check out more about the proposal here

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More from @TheStalwart

Mar 29

For the Odd Lots blog, I wrote about whether we're seeing hints of supply chain easing and shortages turning into gluts.…
I'd never heard of the Logistics Managers' Index survey.

But big thanks to @FreightAlley for pointing it out to me. I thought this was fascinating, nd it's 100% the opposite of the prevailing inflation narrative.…
@FreightAlley And here's the December LMI survey, where they warned that this could be brewing. Very interesting, and again, reflecting something that's very different than the mainstream conversation on supply chains and inflation.…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28

Macquarie's Viktor Shvets is one of the most requested guests we have.

He came on to talk with me and @tracyalloway about why central bankers may be making a huge mistake, and why he thinks they may be back in easing mode as soon as 2023…
@tracyalloway In terms of historical analogies, rather than looking so much at the 1970s, he argues we should be talking more about the inflationary period after the Spanish Flu. And he argues that things were already starting to normalize in the economy, prior to the start of the war.
In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about our conversation with Viktor Shvets, and the risks of a central bank mistake in the making.

Sub to the newsletter here:…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24

@tracyalloway and I spoke to the great agriculture economist @ScottIrwinUI, about the historic disruption to the world's supply of wheat. What it means for food prices, food availability, and what the prospects are for replacing lost supply…
@tracyalloway @ScottIrwinUI In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the episode and how as bad as things are right now, there's the potential for them to get worse.… Image
One thing I learned from @ScottIrwinUI is that the admin does have one interesting lever to expand domestic supply.

The USDA's Conservation Reserve Program blocks off millions of environmentally sensitive acres from being farmed. These restrictions could be eased or lifted.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23

This special bonus episode is honestly one of my favorite ever. @tracyalloway and I spoke to @mercoglianos about why Tracy's belonging are stuck on a grounded ship they can't move, and why part of the blame is the Foreign Dredge Act Of 1906…
@tracyalloway @mercoglianos It turns out that the most powerful dredging equipment in the United States is just a fraction of the most powerful dredger that they had in the Suez, for when they hade to move the Ever Given. And it's illegal here, because of the 1906 law, to use non-domestic dredging equipment
Not only is the US behind in dredging equipment it turns out. But we also have a scarcity of tugboat capacity in the US.

If we're serious about investing in our ports, etc. we need serious investment in both dredgers and tugboats.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 21
NEW ODD LOTS: The Russian Bond Episode.

@tracyalloway and I talked to two legends in the realm of sovereign debt law: UVA's Mitu Gulati and UNC's Mark Weidemaier.

Absolutely fascinating chat on how complicated a Russian default would be if it happens.…
@tracyalloway As @tracyalloway wrote about last week, Russian bonds issued over the last several years, have all kinds of interesting risk factors and loopholes that were largely ignored by investors, despite the annexation of Crimea.… ImageImage
@tracyalloway Also speaking of ESG, here are some holdings in the PIMCO GIS Emerging Markets Bond ESG Fund Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
TRANSCRIPT: The full text of our conversation with @AndurandPierre is out.

Just an absolute wealth of insight into the state of oil markets right now, and why prices could go much higher…
@AndurandPierre In addition to oil, he also talked about other commodities, particularly the metals necessary for building EVs and renewable sources of energy. It's going to take years in some cases to bring some of these markets into balance.…
My $0.02 from this is given the relative speed with which you can drill a new oil well vs. build out a new nickel or cobalt mine. And given the political resonance of high gasoline/electricity bills, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pivot back towards carbon-emitting energy
Read 4 tweets

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