Thread by @grattonecon

1/n. We all want the war to end. Families returning to their land; children to their schools; reconstruction. Peace.

HOWEVER, negotiations need to (i) respect the agency of Ukrainians, and (ii) take Putin's threat seriously. A small thread on (ii): 🧵👇

2/n. If you want negotiations, then you must be willing to concede something (land, sanctions, neutrality, treaties, etc). For example, some seem to think Ukraine should concede independence of some regions.

3/n. Suppose you believe Ukraine or "the West" (whatever you believe it may mean) should concede X. The question I would like to ask to you is:

"Under which peaceful circumstances would Putin have reasonably expected X?"

4/n. If the answer is "under no peaceful circumstances", then by conceding X you are sanctioning that Putin has gained the RIGHT to X by war. There is no international law-based order: you want X? You can take it by force.

5/n. The fact that Putin had attempted to take X+Y is irrelevant. He could not take X; he made a war; got X. And now you, by the legal force of your treaty, are binding your citizens and your future generations to Russia's sacrosanct RIGHT to X.

6/n. I know you say "but that's the reality of things." Maybe..

HOWEVER, from the moment you sanction Putin's right to X obtained by war, you certainly can't expect Putin not to consider obtaining Y, or Z, once its economy and army are recovered.

7/n. Notice that you will also give Putin a chance to reinforce his own power by claiming victory of X. Thus creating more supprot and appetite for further wars for Y and Z and... Say, a corridor to Kaliningrad...

8/n. But what about WWIII and nuclear wars?

Well, imagine to wake up one day and discover that the renewed Russian army already has control of Vilnius and all of Lithuania to link Kaliningrad. What do you do? Do you finally start that possibly nuclear war? Is it really worth it?

9/n. Are you sure you don't want to concede the corridor to Kaliningrad as a potential Y concession in exchange for peace? After all, a nuclear war is a very sad end for all of us.

The salami tactic has gotten you again...

10/m. As said above, there are also historically fundamental considerations about the agency and dignity and rights of the people of Ukraine. But even if you were willing to sacrifice them to world peace, you may be just hiding the problem temporarely. /END.