Thread by @RichardBentall

1/23 This is a thread that shows a way Britain can escape from its endless Brexit crisis, based on recent research, with important implications for the next general election. Remainer, leaver, neither and especially @UKLabour - you will really want to know what follows.

2/23 The analysis is based on political science data collected in December 2021 as part of the ESRC-funded @C19PRCStudy, analyzed with the help of my friends Paul Wilner (Swansea U) and Todd Hartman (Manchester U) and reported on the LSE website today: blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…

3/23 First a bit of background. Human beings readily form identities (IDs), based on the groups we belong to. We describe ourselves in terms of our ethnicity, nationality, location, professional group, the football teams we support etc. We can have multiple IDs at any one time.

4/23 In many situations, multiple IDs are good for us. The more we have, the more resilient we are to misfortune, and the less we are likely to develop poor mental health: blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…

5/23 And yet, during political crises, people develop conflicting IDs, leading to anger and conflict: Royalists vs Parliamentarians in C17th English Civil War; Dreyfusards vs Anti-Dreyfusards during France's C19th Dreyfus crisis; 'dries' vs 'wets' during C20th US Prohibition.

6/23 Once conflicting IDs have crystalized, they make it very difficult for people to change their minds or compromise: to do either is to admit to oneself that one's 'tribe' is bad or mistaken.

7/23 In the aftermath of Brexit, the UK population formed two ID groups: Leavers and Remainers. Each side thinks the other stupid; wouldn't want a child to marry someone from the other. Research has shown that these IDs have persisted and are still strong. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

8/23 Recent polling can be interpreted in this light. Ask people if they want to rejoin, not much has shifted. Ask people the less ID-challenging questions, "Was Brexit the right decision", or 'Is Brexit going well' and....

9/23 We have been measuring Brexit IDs in a representative sample of the UK population in the @C19PRCStudy longitudinal study of how the UK population has adjusted to Covid 19. We do this with questions asking people how much they feel they belong to Leaver or Remainer groups.

10/23 (Note: This is different from asking people what they think about Brexit, or how they voted in 2016. IDs are formed around group affiliations - the belief that we belong to one tribe or another).

Now here is the important stuff....

11/23 Most polling has asked people what they want (e.g Rejoin, Stay Out) but, if we really hope to escape from our current Brexit impasse, we need to find the policy that is most ACCEPTABLE to the maximum number of people in the UK.

12/23 The most acceptable policy is likely to be one that doesn't trigger Brexit IDs (so, one that people's Brexit ID scores do not correlate with). In December 2021 we asked people about the acceptability of three Brexit policies, each with a name, description, and rationale.

13/23 Here are the policies and the results, grouped by Leave voters, Remain voters and All voters (because some of our sample had not voted in 2016):

14/23. Importantly, Brexit IDs turned out to be much more important in predicting how acceptable people found two of these policies than how they had actually voted in 2016. Here is the data again, showing only those who took part in the referendum.

15/23 Strikingly, AN INDEPENDENT SOVEREIGN UK (very hard Brexit) was only acceptable to 41.2% of Leave voters and only 24.1% of voters overall. Leave ID scores predicted support, Remain ID scores predicted opposition. Few people like this policy.

16/23 Equally striking, taking a road towards rejoining positively correlates with Remain ID and negatively with Leave ID - it's more acceptable to the population as a whole but about 30% find it unacceptable.

HOWEVER.....(drum roll)...

17/23 Negotiating A NEW DEAL WITH EUROPE, and aligning UK regulations with EU regulations while staying out (roughly Norway deal) is ACCEPTABLE to a clear majority of Leave and Remain voters - only about 15% of all voters find it unacceptable.

18/23 Moreover, support for A NEW DEAL WITH EUROPE is not predicted by either Leave or Remain ID scores - it is non-toxic to both identities and therefore 'the sweet spot' around which the UK could unite and go forward.

19/23 Personal note: I have a strong Remain ID and, given the choice, would like to rejoin, but this data suggests that rejoining needs to be 'parked' (for at least a decade IMHO). The UK population needs to see whether a better Brexit can work first.

20/23 Implications for politicians: Rumour has it that @Conservatives plan to fight the next election doubling down on hard Brexit. Good luck with that, especially if @UKLabour can get its head together around Brexit! theguardian.com/politics/2022/…

21/23 For @UKLabour A NEW DEAL WITH EUROPE is a bit like 'Making Brexit work' but importantly different. We think both Leaver and Remainer votes can be won by explicitly pointing out that the current version of Brexit is failing badly....

22/23 .... and promising to negotiate a closer relationship with the EU which will reduce trade and social barriers and enhance cooperation with our European neighbours. Expressed carefully, many Leavers will like this, as well as Remainers.

23/END Bias warning: As I've said, I'm a Remainer. If you want to use this to construct an ad hominem, be my guest. The data is robust.

We'll continue to research Brexit IDs and report further.

Thanks to my colleagues on the ESRC-funded @C19PRC study who supported this work.

FOOTNOTE. I've just found this Tweet from 2017! 😀

https://twitter.com/RichardBentall/status/921748065312231424?s=20&t=2OFKQm5mv9CW-14xgIFyJQ

FOOTNOTE #2: It's pleasing to see so many responses to this thread have been positive. It seems that many people do want to find a way of moving on from our present Brexit impasse. There are also, of course, a few angry leavers and (fewer) angry remainers stuck in their silos.

FOOTNOTE #3: If you're one of the few angry leavers/ remainers complaining that I don't know how real leavers/ remainers think, I'd like to point out that the thread is based on asking 541 leave voters, 641 remain voters and 218 people who did not voter in 2016 what they think!