Much wailing “why did the security services let it happen”.
“It” being subversion of the UK government by Putin’s agents.
The answer couldn’t be more straightforward.
We have five security services, not counting the armed forces.
They all answer to the government.
A 🧵/1.
The five services are:
1. Security Service (“MI5”). Overseen by the Home Sec.
2. Secret Intelligence Service (“MI6”). Foreign Sec.
3. GCHQ. Ditto.
4. Defence Intelligence Service. Defence Sec.
5. Metropolitan Police/ SO15 (incorporates former “Special Branch”). Home Sec. /2.
And by whom are those cabinet ministers themselves overseen?
The Prime Minister, of course.
The Joint Intelligence Committee (supported by the Joint Intelligence Organisation), on which chiefs of the intelligence services are represented, plays an important role. /3.
The JIC’s Chair answers to the Cabinet Secretary, who … answers to the Prime Minister.
Then there’s the National Security Secretariat, the head of which … you get the idea.
And the Homeland Security Group, part of the Home Office, obviously overseen by … yup, good guess. /4.
There’s also Parliament’s Intelligence & Security Committee.
It’s set up under statute - the Justice & Security Act 2013 - unlike other parliamentary committees.
It meets in secret.
It’s answerable jointly to the House of Commons & the House of Lords. /5.
Various Acts of Parliament provide the legal frameworks for the intelligence/security services, & the ISC.
Ministers, officials & parliamentarians face legal requirements & constraints, & their actions can be subject to judicial review. There is some safeguard in that. /6.
But even assuming, as I do, all officials concerned are of great integrity, ultimately:
1. they must, within the law, do what ministers decide
2. the decision what to do about serious threats to national security rests with minsters/ PM, whatever the JIC etc advise /7.
Is there, then, a set of indisputable legal requirements to which officials could refer & on which they could insist, if faced by ministers or a PM refusing to protect the country against a clear threat - of attack or subversion, say?
In short, no. /8.
Corrupt or subverted (or stupid) ministers can’t be stopped by officials.
They can be stopped by the PM.
And, clearly, the top prize for any adversary of the UK would be to corrupt & subvert the PM.
But what about the Law Officers, the Attorney General for example? /9.
Good point.
Their job is to ensure the government acts legally.
But if they’re subverted or corrupted (or weak or stupid) themselves, &/or appointed by a subverted, corrupted (or stupid) PM, good luck with that. /10.
Which brings us to the ISC. They’re the parliamentary guardian of our security. Can they save the country?
No.
They have no executive or legislative power. But they can & do oversee (the JIC, for example), investigate &, under constraints, publish.
Russia report, anyone? /11.
The PM & the most senior ministers set the priorities & requirements for the security services.
It’s possible for those to be wrongly skewed. In good faith. Or bad.
The country depends on the PM/ministers acting in good faith. Taking proper advice. And not getting it wrong./12.
To sum up:
- unless the PM & Cabinet are of the highest integrity & quality, there’s little defence against corruption & subversion of the entire system of government
- under such circumstances the best officials & best intelligence can’t do anything about it /13.
- Parliament can do something about it. But the ISC is only a (very unusual) committee & is constrained.
If a majority of MPs is prepared to support, or turn a blind eye to, a corrupted, subverted Cabinet (for party-political reasons, say) it’s game over.
Sorry. /14. End
Royal Addendum: surely HM The Queen can intervene?
No.
She must act on the PM’s advice.
Bagehot famously ascribed to the Sovereign the right to be consulted, to encourage & to warn.
No help, I’m afraid.
Illegal Leaking Addendum: surely intelligence officials can just leak everything? Possibly. But they’ll almost certainly be breaking the Official Secrets Act, with serious personal consequences. Also, leak to whom? Most of the press won’t listen. More likely to attack the leaker.
What-Do-You-Know-About-It-Anyway-Andrew? Addendum: you might ask that, I couldn’t possibly comment. Trust me. Or not. Your choice.
Corrections/ clarifications:
Tweet 2
(1) “Security services” is a loose, colloquial term. I’m using it here to mean relevant components of the UK intelligence community & law enforcement.
(2) *The* Security Service is what’s otherwise known as MI5. /1.
(3) “Defence Intelligence Service” is wrong. Apologies. DIS was, until 2009, the “Defence Intelligence Staff”. Afterwards it became simply “Defence Intelligence” (DI). It’s an integral part of the MoD. /2. End
As Russia’s war of aggression started, four weeks ago, I shared core points of the advice I presented fourteen years ago to the Foreign Secretary of the day & shared with key allies (🧵 attached at the end of this one) after the 2008 Georgia invasion.
We knew. What?
A 🧵/1.
We had extraordinarily good sources. We didn’t need to guess. We didn’t need to read (but we did) propagandist Surkov’s bizarre attempts to bend reality to his & - above all - his master’s warped perceptions. Nor ethno-fascist, “Eurasian” mystic Dugin’s brutal fantasises. /2.
As you’d expect (I hope) we used all information - open, received in confidence or otherwise obtained.
Here, in an edited version omitting confidential material, is a crucial part of what we said then. Bear with me. It’s two sides of A4. A long 🧵, but quite a short read. /3.
Germans’ special difficulty in fully accepting the reality of, & drawing the consequence of adequately confronting, the grotesque savagery of Putin’s Russia arises from guilt & horror at what happened to the USSR at German hands in WW2.
No it doesn’t.
A 🧵/1.
It comes, deep, deep down, from terror at what (not only, but especially) the Red Army did to Germany.
That isn’t to deny widespread, admirable German consciousness of repellent Nazi crimes, & the associated moral determination to stand for a better Europe & a better world. /2.
But until you understand modern Germany is in the grip of a nightmare about what might happen to it again, not what it might do to others, you’ll be confused, & remain confused, about what’s going on in Europe’s largest economy & soon-to-be by far largest defence spender. /3.
.@EerikNKross & @IlvesToomas (who RT’d 👇), on 22 August 1940 the British Home Secretary, John Anderson, acknowledged, to the House of Commons, the “regrettable and deplorable things” which had happened - & were still happening - to Germans, Austrians & Italians in the UK. /1.
That followed a campaign of xenophobic hysteria whipped up in the press. And panic in the Cabinet. In the face of Nazi brutality on an already unimaginable scale, & fear of invasion, after the Norway debacle & the fall of the Netherlands. /2.
Self-evidently, Emily Sherwin didn’t complain. She hadn’t been born. Nor did Deutsche Welle: it didn’t exist.
But no less than the British Home Secretary of the day did recognise that what had happened was wrong. In public. On the record. And he did so at the time. /3.
“Ukraine must recognise it will not join NATO” President Zelensky is reported to have said.
NATO isn’t the issue (see my 🧵s ad nauseam, et cetera).
But let’s play along.
A 🧵/1.
Ukraine has applied to join the EU.
The EU will form a common defence alliance, with high autonomy, at the same time providing the European core of a US-led NATO. /2.
There’s a long history to that, going back to the 1940s, with the Western Union (later Western European Union, which lost much of its meaning once NATO was founded) & the abortive European Defence Community, vetoed by President de Gaulle. /3.
Latterly he has served the revolutionary wing of Brexit, aka the Johnson government.
Yesterday he posted a charming 1985 image of himself working in W Berlin.
What happened next is depressingly fascinating.
A short🧵/1.
Unsurprisingly Mr Hands received a deluge of angry replies, ridiculing him for his insensitivity in celebrating his own European freedoms from the 1980s, while he now works for a government which has eliminated such rights for British citizens wanting the same now. /2.
That’s hardly fascinating, even if an undeniably sad circumstance.
But Mr Hands’ reply is an eye-opener.
“1985 predated free movement”, he says to “anybody making Brexit points”.
The quantum of what’s wrong there could fill a research project.