Scott Duncan Profile picture
Apr 3 11 tweets 5 min read
Extreme cold following the warmth in March is an 'agricultural disaster' for parts of Europe.

Many sensitive crops blossomed early and subject to harsh frost. The timing of this strong cold is horrific, this happened last year too.
A thread by @SergeZaka captures the agricultural losses in France. Preliminary estimates suggest one third of France has 80-100% loss in some crops.

Sadly, another harsh frost expected tonight.

The cold has been setting some April cold records...

February & March had no significant cold spells and were considerably warmer than average.

The warmth before the historic cold shot is particularly bad for sensitive flora & fauna.

Graphic from @infoclimat
Some farmers have to resort to quite extreme measures involving freezing crops in ice (as this is less damaging than harsh frost in this case).

From Lleida in Catalonia region. Thanks for the heads up @AlfredRPico

Dutch farmers also used similar technique to protect sensitive crops from this harsh cold.

Thanks for the heads up @weermanrobert

The cold was in the weather forecast, which allows some of these measures to be taken to protect.

As the climate changes, increasingly warm weather in March becomes more likely. Crops are able to enter a vulnerable spring mode earlier.

Cold shots in April become far more damaging (compared to similar cold following a cold March for example).

The cold was delivered under a strong meander in the jet...

Does climate change make this type of setup more common?

In honesty, it is not an easy or clear answer.
Climate change impact on the jet stream is a hot topic.

The planet is warming at different rates and this is important on the global circulation. Temperature gradient is a fundament driver for the jet stream after all.

Worth reading for more info ⬇️

scientificamerican.com/article/storm-….
Also a great article by @CarbonBrief about the matter...

Worth reading before making assumptions about the jet stream in climate change 👍

carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-…

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More from @ScottDuncanWX

Feb 17
Life-threatening, damaging wind storm about to bulldoze through some of the most densely populated parts of Europe over the next 48 hours.

This is Storm Eunice...
Storm Eunice is forming unusually far south and east in the Atlantic...

With the help and guidance of a rip-roaring jet stream, Eunice will approach peak intensity over areas that rarely see such violent winds.

This is a particularly serious situation.
This storm was named on Monday, plenty of warning with weather forecast models highlighting a dangerous scenario days in advance.

This was tweeted on Valentine's day... The forecast barely changed since then.

Read 4 tweets
Jan 11
BREAKING: Buenos Aires, Argentina 🇦🇷 falls into darkness as intense heat pushes infrastructure beyond limits.

This is one of the hottest temperatures in recorded history for the city. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning of a brutal & historic heatwave in South America.
We have not observed above +40°C in Buenos Aires since 1995. This is the hottest day since 1957, so if you were born after that, this is the hottest day of your life so far (records go back to 1905).

h/t @metsul @ThierryGooseBC @extremetemps
Temperature has since sneaked a little higher to 41.1°C

Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
Hottest 7 years in recorded history for the global average temperature all occur in the last 7 years.

2021 has just come in as 5th hottest and this is how it looks... Image
The monthly breakdown of 2021 temperature...

Any months stand out for you in particular? Image
Maps made with data from @CopernicusEU

More on the data and report here: climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-glo… Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
Wait for it...

A top-end storm is explosively deepening in the open Atlantic right now. Central pressure should drop below 930 hPa.

The jet stream dynamics are jaw-dropping.
The storm development is linked back to a baroclinic zone over the Southern States. Cold air flooded the USA with strong thermal contrast (very warm to the south).

A beautiful but powerful storm.
The jet stream interacting with the developing surface cyclone is crucial for such a powerful storm.

The coincidence of the surface cyclone under the 'right entrance' then 'left exit' greatly enhances the cyclone development

A technical link: eumetrain.org/satmanu/four_q…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 2
Horrifically warm for New Year...

Many heat records continue to fall.
I would call this a blow-torch New Year. Widely 10-15°C above the seasonal average.
Northern Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and my mother's bees are out.

Very unusual for January.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
One of the most northerly towns on Planet Earth (Qaanaaq, Greenland) at latitude 77.3N rose to a staggering +8.3°C today.

The sun set in late October and will not rise here until 13 February 2022. Today marks the Winter Solstice.
Really impressive warmth all over Greenland. Foehn effect in action. Warmth most profound along the west coast (to the west of high ground).
Double digits...

It is the longevity and magnitude of this warm spell that is truly exceptional. Wild temperature swings themselves are not that unusual here.

Read 5 tweets

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