Greg Yudin Profile picture
Apr 3, 2022 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Unfortunately, I am not surprised by the atrocities in the occupied zone in Bucha. One thing people tend to underestimate is the narrative built in Russia to justify this war. It sounds so outlandish to most observers that it is too easily written off. But it works. A🧵1/11
The narrative mounted by Putin from the first days of war focuses on “de-nazification” of Ukraine. Nazism is understood in Russia (just like anywhere else) as an absolute evil. However, it is seen an external evil, Russia is by definition free from Nazism (we defeated it!) 2/11
It follows that Nazism is an external enemy that should be destroyed at any cost. The initial view was that Nazis have seized power in Ukraine, while ordinary Ukrainians are just some sort of Russians with silly ideas about their identity and a ridiculous language 3/11
This meant “de-nazification” could be completed through regime change & Ukrainians should be liberated. Obviously, this conception failed when Ukrainians started resisting bravely. A natural conclusion from that: Ukrainians turned out to be deeply infected by Nazism 4/11
Therefore, liberation means purification. I have expanded on that a bit: 5/11
And this is precisely how the message of official speakers has changed recently. Here Margarita Simonyan is saying precisely this: we have underestimated how deep Nazism has permeated Ukrainian society. Now liberation means purification 6/11
That affects the operational choices by the troops on the ground. Imagine you are a Russian soldier occupying a city in Ukraine (I know it is an unpleasant experiment). What are the classifications and distinctions you would use when dealing with the local population? 7/11
Your basic theory is that this is a land occupied by the Nazis, and you are here to liberate it. Obviously, Nazis will resist; and those resisting are Nazis. Your primary task is to separate the Nazis from poor Ukrainians & make the city clean from Nazism 8/11
This is why we already see the filtration camps operating near Mariupol. The process of filtration reportedly involves many locations inside Russia, which means the whole concept of filtration operations was pre-planned. Once again, the purity narrative is crucial here 9/11
This is why I seriously doubt these atrocities are just excesses of war. Every war excites the worst in people, especially when commanders are rogue. However, the systematic and consistent actions owe more to the way war is justified than to affects like revenge 10/11
If you feel like this logic of purification actually reminds of Nazi thinking, I think there’s a lot of truth to that. I will probably make a separate thread on why 🇷🇺 probably has no immunity against Nazism.
I am afraid the worst thing are yet to follow. Hope I’m wrong. END
ADD: This is exactly what I am talking about: “Don’t worry. You are all normal – and this is dirt. We are here to cleanse you from the dirt.”
hrw.org/news/2022/04/0…

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More from @YudinGreg

Sep 20, 2023
When Azerbaijan took a military action in 2020, there was something interesting about some pro-Kremlin pundits. They interpreted these events as a proof that “Aliyev has shown that geopolitical conflicts can be solved by force, and from now on they will be solved by force”. 1/4
This was a sign of things to come. Today, the pro-Kremlin channels are celebrating with an impressive Schadenfreude what is clearly a tragedy for Russia’s official military ally in CSTO. 2/4
None of them pays any attention to whether Azerbaijan’s actions are justified or not in terms of international law. What matters is contempt for the weak and respect for the strong. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2023
Defeat. A thread 1/23
One important indicator for me is how often people in Russia talk about possible defeat. I must confess that it happens now really often, which is a dramatic turn from the early months of the war 2/23
For quite a while, nobody took the word “defeat” in their mouth, even if they considered the invasion to be an insane choice. That has changed 3/23
Read 23 tweets
Apr 12, 2023
There’s a lot of confusion around the new call-up legislation in Russia.
Everybody’s focused on the paper call-up notices being replaced by electronic ones. This is both untrue and unimportant 1/4
What has really changed is that the burden of learning about the call-up is shifted on the citizens.
Previously, it was the state who was obliged to deliver the notice, and if the notice was not accepted it was considered as not delivered. This mattered in courts 2/4
From now on, an electronic registry is set up listing all persons called up. It is the responsibility of the citizen to check the list. Appearing on the list is considered a notification, in twenty days you are considered an evader regardless of receiving notice 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20, 2022
An important investigation released by Dossier Center on the ongoing planning within FSB to invade and annex Moldova. Unfortunately, I was not able to find any English translation 1/11

The investigation makes evident what many people, including myself, have been saying for a long time: the invasion of Moldova is not a question of whether, but a question of when. It is now delayed out of tactical considerations 2/11

afsa.org/moldova-putins…
Most interestingly, the film shows a leaked footage of an anniversary of FSB officer in charge of Moldova. With this, one gets a rare window into the thinking of people who rule Russia now. Guests are part of the Russian ruling elite gravitating towards security services 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
There are three reasons why Putin is losing this war. Two of them cannot be fixed. That’s why Putin doubles down on solving the third 1/9
First: Motivation. Russian army has no business in Ukraine. No number of draftees will solve this problem. In fact, it will only make things worse, because every next batch is less motivated that the previous one. Russia is simply running out of idiots 2/9
The Kremlin has just started severe ideologization and militarization of Russian education to get the young committed to fight. Most probably, it is too late. Russian young are skeptical about this war, and will be increasingly opposed to it 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Oct 10, 2022
The chaotic and barbaric shelling of Ukrainian cities looks like an act of desperation. Rather than pursuing a military purpose, it is rather meant to solve the rapidly internal problem 1/8
First, these attacks are precisely something the radicals were demanding long time ago. Putin was ignoring these demands for quite a while, and now he yielded to them immediately after the blowup of the bridge 2/8
Second, they are preceded by appointment of Surovikin – again, something the radicals were pushing through for a long time. This is not typical of Putin to give in to pressure so evidently – and now these people aren’t even afraid to claim they have forced Putin’s hand 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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