James Dyke Profile picture
Apr 5 10 tweets 2 min read
1⃣If anyone wants my "take" on the latest IPCC report then here goes (will be writing something about this later, but to be honest, this thread will probably allow me to say what I want to say more effectively).
2⃣1.5°C is over. We now have to imagine the most fabulous scenarios to truly honour the Paris Agreement. That includes increasingly including large-scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere to drag down temps after "overshooting".
3⃣We are still firmly on course for around 3°C by end of century. But really these end of century and even mid-century projections & targets are meaningless. What we need is the reduction of fossil fuel use NOW (sorry for shouting).
4⃣The reason we're not cutting fossil fuel use is not because it's really hard (it is) or represents huge challenges for finance (it does). It's because a tiny fraction of humanity is resisting with all of its considerable power. Power it has accrued with fossil fuels.
5⃣I appreciate "Fossil fuel fucks are stealing my children's future" isn't the sort of title IPCC will use in press releases or SPMs but that's the brutal reality. And I'm very frustrated about why we academics find it so hard to say that (or family friendly version).
6⃣We are still playing the game of producing increasingly absurb scenarios and then watching as civilisation carries on regardless. Now this doesn't mean we haven't made some huge progress in decarbonising. We are seeing energy transformations in many places.
7⃣But it's nowhere near enough and I guess that most academics either know that or suspect it. We have to turn off fossil fuels. Not overnight - that will kill billions. But VERY SOON. And that is a direct challenge to the most powerful organisations the world has ever seen.
8⃣Did you ever think they would wake up one day and decide to implode their industry? I'm not painting them as the victim here, but they will require support from governments to fundamentally repurpose their missions. This cannot be left to the market.
9⃣That's what this latest IPCC report says to me. I am profoundly grateful to all (lead)authors & reviewers. We would be in a far worse place without them 🙏. But now we need a new stage of academic engagement with the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.
🔟That's why I'm working with facultyforafuture.org Perhaps you would like to join us. END

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More from @JamesGDyke

Aug 13, 2021
1⃣Ask not what mitigation can do for you, but what you can do for mitigation. I fear we have approached the climate crises entirely back to front. Rather than ask how can we rapidly reduce fossil fuel use we've instead been trying to prop it up for as long as possible. Why?
2⃣Because pretty much all the analysis around decarbonisation that comes out of the IPCC is based on models that can only ever explore incremental change in which the global economy essentially continues. This rules out - by design - the sort of actions that could actually work.
3⃣What Glen shows here are the rates of decarbonisation that we need to limit warming to 1.5°C. If we were serious about the Paris Agreement, we would use these to determine how quickly we need to get off fossil fuels.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 2, 2021
It’s publication week for my new book Fire, Storm, and Flood: The Violence of Climate Change. On 5th Aug @ 6:30pm I’m doing a free online book talk in partnership with independent bookshop @Octoberbooks. A 🧵about some of the things I will talk about. 1⃣ eventbrite.co.uk/e/livestream-f…
Things are not looking great right now. Records being shattered around the word gives us a glimpse of our future. We will soon look back at the crazy weather or 2021 as one of the final years of the stable Holocene epoch (all photos from book). 2⃣
But the climate has always changed right? If you look at past human history & then long before we even evolved, the Earth’s climate has undergone huge changes in the past. So why worry about the climate change we are causing now? 3⃣
Read 12 tweets
May 19, 2021
1⃣"albeit still much too slowly" and that is why net zero is a trap. It assures us progress is being made - just not fast enough - when we know that winning slowly is no better than loosing as @billmckibben once said.
2⃣One reason the @IEA report is important because it (finally) calls time on fossil fuel investments. But it's still full of climate unicorns. Vast deployment of technologies that either don't exist or haven't progressed beyond demonstrator.
3⃣The report explains this "Failing to take timely decisions on [carbon capture] would raise the costs of a net-zero emissions pathway & add to the risk of not meeting the goal by placing an additional burden on wind and solar to scale up even more quickly than in the NZE."
Read 7 tweets
May 11, 2021
1⃣This is very promising & is cause for optimism. But look, let's delve just a little bit deeper and you can see that these numbers mask a widening gap between actions and what we must do to avoid dangerous warming. A 🧵
2⃣The IEA has a history of underestimating wind and solar deployment rates. What's behind this latest revision is the big leap in China where wind & solar has taken off even without subsidies. Excellent news. But...
3⃣At the same time, China is building yet more coal fired power stations. The deployment of wind & solar is not replacing fossil fuel energy infrastructure - it's adding to it. Driving that is China's extraordinary growth in energy & material consumption. e360.yale.edu/features/despi…
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30, 2021
1⃣Thanks Simon. @James_BG makes a great deal of sense & I will reply below. But first I must point out one glaring error. He describes me as one "of Europe's leading environmental scientists". I am not!
2⃣That out the way... My immediate response is, James doesn't connect with the fact that net zero policies are simply too late. The rapid development of solutions are happening within a climate policy system that is decades out of date. inews.co.uk/opinion/climat…
3⃣James' argument is (I think) essentially a passionate defense of the climate policy system. He's a believer! It's that belief that drives action for change. For sure, without him we would be in a worse place.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 29, 2021
1⃣Interesting article that cites @w_knorr, Bob Watson and my recent net zero trap article. It acknowleges that "the concept of net zero is complex and the science and best practices are developing fast". A 🧵 businessgreen.com/news/4030612/r…
2⃣I take the argument here to be that net zero policies should be seen as a "floor" for action not a "ceiling". It's a minimum that should over time only increase. Sound familiar? Nationally Determined Contributions of the UNFCCC? unfccc.int/news/climate-c…
3⃣Of course the failure of NDCs, of self-declared promises to stop using fossil fuels, stems from the lack of enforcement. But we *are* making progress - as witnessed by new US pledges. Right? whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 7 tweets

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