The #MysteryBroker checks in to say he's unconcerned by the various Treasury yield curve inversions that have many on edge. History shows plenty of false signals and long lead times before a recession. The 3-mo/10-yr curve may invert early 2023, then maybe a year until recession.
The #MysteryBroker continues to see the economy in decent shape, believes in the shift toward services spending, pent-up auto demand, Earnings are spottier (inflation beneficiaries supporting consensus numbers), but are holding up. Risks are inventory buildup and housing unwind.
On stocks, #MysteryBroker was aggressive with bullish calls near all three of the 2022 trading lows (late Jan,, late Feb, mid-March). Now says valuations are not excessive, expects "stock market to be OK until at least the third week of April." Doesn't think it's a bear market.
The #MysteryBroker expects another "nasty correction" probably July-Sept range. The Fed will have rates well higher, investors will fear over-tightening, credit/financials would get hit with cyclicals/commods. Tech would hold up better. Then "off to the races" higher by October.
That's it for now, but read the fine print....
https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1126487466540617728
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