Thread by @DanLamothe

A background briefing with a senior defense official at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine just concluded.

It’s Day 42 of the war, and here are some takeaways:

Notable: In the last 24 hours, the Pentagon assessed that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas, senior defense official says.

No significant changes in south. Pentagon has seen reports that Ukraine has surrendered Mariupol, “but we do not assess that that has happened,” senior defense official says.

Russians have moved from northern Ukraine into Belarus for refit and resupply. There are indications those efforts are underway, senior defense official says.

“Our assessment is that they won’t want to spend too much refitting and resupplying because they have made a very public show of saying that they’re going to prioritize their efforts on the Donbas region,” senior defense official says.

Of the 130 battalion tactical groups Russia applied to the invasion, more than 80 are still inside Ukraine, senior defense official says. Each generally has 800 to 1,000 troops, senior defense official says.

Pentagon is working under the assumption that “the majority” of the Russian units that have withdrawn will be reapplied elsewhere in the war after resupplying.

“But we just don’t know,” senior defense official says.

There has not yet been a tangible increase in Russian forces in the Donbas region, senior defense official says. They have dedicated more than 30 battalion tactical groups there so far, likely amounting to more than 24,000.

Ukrainian forces have been “recalibrating since the beginning,” and are continuing to do so in eastern Ukraine, senior defense official says. Notes that Ukraine took advantage of Russia pulling back elsewhere to attack.

“As they have beaten back the Russians or as the Russians have left, they are reoccupying that ground and making their own assessments about what their force posture ought to be going forward,” senior defense official says.

Ukrainian forces “are absolutely adapting and adjusting in real time to Russian efforts now to increase their activities there” in eastern Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.

One of the reasons the Pentagon announced last night another $100 million in weapons transfers to Ukraine is because there was an “urgent need” for Javelins in the Donbas and the Ukrainians want to be ready.

“Lots of adjustments in real time,” senior defense official says.

As of today, the Russians have launched more than 1,450 missiles since launching their invasion, senior defense official says.

Airstrikes in recent days are concentrated heavily south of the Ukrainian town of Izyum and into the Joint Force Operations (JFO) area.

On Bucha: Pentagon doesn’t have a clear read on why atrocities were carried out. But the killings there “certainly appear to be premeditated” and “deliberate,” senior defense official says.

“Clearly a message was sent to the world of Russia’s brutality, and that’s the message that should not be forgotten here,” senior defense official says of brutality in Bucha.

North of Kyiv, Ukraine is doing de-mining operations, senior U.S. defense official says. Ukraine will have to make sense of what to do there next.

On fuel: U.S. has “had discussions with the Ukrainians about fuel needs and fuel requirements,” senior defense official says. Adds that he will “leave it at that.”

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…