Thread by @LeoKemboi

One key fact to note is that the trendline of Kenya's economic growth and the revenue(% of GDP) continues to decline over the last 12 years. #KeBudget22_23

PBO estimates that debt solvency indicators (PV of Public debt revenue and grants ratio & PV of PPG External Debt-to exports ratio) breached in 2017 could be resolved as early as 2031. #KeBudget22_23

Exports continue to decline as shown by the Exports growth rate (%); 2012 – 2020, and this has implications for the compounding debt crisis. #KeBudget2022_23

On Budget Numbers- the Budget Appropriations Committee of @NAssemblyKE resolved the ceilings: National Executive- Ksh 1.559 Trn, @OAG_Kenya - Ksh 6.378 Bn, @Kenyajudiciary -18.885 billion, Parliament- Ksh 50.22 Bn.

If approved in the Appropriations as it is, Parliament would receive a one-off Budget increase of Ksh 11.7 Billion. The explanation given is that the additional request of 11.7 billion is due to lapsing of the 12th parliament. The political economy of Budgets is playing out.

On Deficit, Budget Appropriations Committee proposed a Ksh 400 bn borrowing limit or 3% of GDP. There are questions about whether this would suffice given the approved fiscal framework. #KeBudget2022_23

The Budget Appropriations Committee proposed: Ksh 370 bn- Counties, Equalization Fund- Ksh 7.068 bn, Conditional grants- Ksh 37 Bn. #KeBudget2022_23

Income tat, VAT and Excise will continue to remain major revenue sources. #KeBudget2022_23

“The trend is if for every Sh100 that is being collected by the KRA, you are paying Sh65 to public debt and it means that we are running into problems,”
@j2mutua @RaphaelMuya3. #KeBudget2022_23

businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/thi…

State-Owned Entities have created a maximum fiscal exposure of Ksh1.3 Trillion, with on-lent loans (Ksh 664 billion.), and liquidity injections for the clearance of arrears (Ksh 211 billion).

@threadreaderapp unroll